Mic09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Genie said: I wonder if that’s using the kit we sent over Liz truss will claim them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 What worries me now is that I had thought Putin’s goal here was merely* to have his guarantee of no NATO membership for Ukraine. That is an issue that can be resolved, somehow, without too much loss on either side. Now, the goal seems less clear, and might be something bigger and far scarier. I still hope it’s still about Ukraine’s allignement, and Putin using extreme measures to get his way, but am now fearful we’re seeing the start of something bigger. *Used relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 24, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 25/01/2022 at 07:22, magnkarl said: A simplistic view, imo. Do you think the Eastern NATO members will tolerate Putin carpet bombing Ukraine? The Baltics, Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Poland, Czech, etc absolutely HATE Russia. You also have to remember that Ukraine has 140.000 active personnel, bolstered with US sam systems, weapon systems from NATO and will be fighting for their lives. It will cost Putin enormous amounts of soldiers. He's not strong without his army and neither can he afford it. Ukraine in 2014 is nowhere near Ukraine 2022, anti-Russian sentiment is huge and no one wants a repeat of a Russian overlord causing holdomir and disaster for Ukraine. Everyone will fight. Can you say the same about Russia once the rather small and underfunded Russian army gets bogged down in Ukrainian trench warfare? It took Russia's 'state of the art' army YEARS to defeat a small ISIL force in Syria, why on earth do you think Putin would dare to invade a country which will actually defend itself properly, with state of the art equipment, home soil advantage and the risk of Western interference if Putin starts killin civilians? Putin has overplayed his hand. He's tough against small countries like Georgia, but Ukraine is not Georgia. Neither is Poland or the combined Baltic armies. He's encircled, rules a dying country and hopefully will be overthrown if he tries anything. Sadly not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Surely excluding Russia from SWIFT is the next step? Stop importing gas, build up more gas capability in Norway and the US, isolate them until he has no money left to wage war with. Russia sells most of it to China these days. They have spent most of the last decade decoupling from the west and aligning themselves with China instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Follyfoot said: S Sadly not The sentiment is still the same. Putin will find a massively anti-Russian country where he's going, one with 1.4 million active military personnel who will entrench themselves in major urban centres. It's going to cost Putin more than any war he's ever fought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I'm not sure what Putin thinks this is going to do. If I was Finland, Sweden, Georgia or any other unaligned country right now I'd get into NATO as soon as possible. This scenario is exactly why NATO exists as Russia once again has turned into a dictatorship willing to kill, wage war and invade for no reason. Putin's wish for a buffer state in Ukraine might risk his buffer zones elsewhere. It's a gamble only a person totally isolated from reality would take, a bit like when Germany went into Russia. The Baltic States and Poland have all requested more NATO troops this morning. Unfortunately for Georgia it's in the same position as Ukraine for membership Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 24, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, magnkarl said: The sentiment is still the same. Putin will find a massively anti-Russian country where he's going, one with 1.4 million active military personnel who will entrench themselves in major urban centres. It's going to cost Putin more than any war he's ever fought. Means little to a madman blocking technologies and freezing bank accounts is our line Interfere and face untold consequences is his line Edited February 24, 2022 by Follyfoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Genie said: I wonder if that’s using the kit we sent over No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said: If only we had less hospitals and schools and more bombs, this would never have happened. Whilst I think we can all agree that we'd rather see our resources spent on something more worthwhile and constructive than weapons, I don't think Putin would have done this if Ukraine had held onto all those Soviet nukes rather than give them away for a piece of paper that said "we pinky swear we won't attack you". I don't like it. I really wish the world was a better place, but it isn't. When you've got someone who's using words like "empire" and invading his neighbours - and let's not forget this isn't the first time - sometimes only the threat of war and the size of your stick (could have said something else) will deter him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 31 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I'm not sure what Putin thinks this is going to do. If I was Finland, Sweden, Georgia or any other unaligned country right now I'd get into NATO as soon as possible. This scenario is exactly why NATO exists as Russia once again has turned into a dictatorship willing to kill, wage war and invade for no reason. Putin's wish for a buffer state in Ukraine might risk his buffer zones elsewhere. It's a gamble only a person totally isolated from reality would take, a bit like when Germany went into Russia. This isn't up to non-members to decide, it's up to NATO members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Putin warns "Moscow's response will be instant if other nations take on Russia" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7392craig Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said: Putin warns "Moscow's response will be instant if other nations take on Russia" He’s lost the plot. I can’t see how he thinks Russia comes out better if this runs it’s full course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, El Zen said: What worries me now is that I had thought Putin’s goal here was merely* to have his guarantee of no NATO membership for Ukraine. That is an issue that can be resolved, somehow, without too much loss on either side. Now, the goal seems less clear, and might be something bigger and far scarier. I still hope it’s still about Ukraine’s allignement, and Putin using extreme measures to get his way, but am now fearful we’re seeing the start of something bigger. *Used relatively. I don't think we know that your initial thought was wrong yet, and if it is wrong, we do not know how far wrong. The issue could not be 'resolved' up until now because the Ukrainian government - as its sovereign right - had written the pursuit of NATO membership into its constitution and political reality within Ukraine meant it was never on the negotiating table. Ukraine's course - which again, it had the right to choose - always contained the risk of conflict with Russia, which had made clear it would not accept this (which again, to be clear, does not mean that Russia's actions are *moral* or *justified* - they aren't). Is this the start of 'something bigger'? It's way too early to tell. The early hours of an attack are always extremely dramatic and the age of rolling news coverage from everywhere definitely amps this up to a huge degree. But everything that has happened so far is still consistent with essentially any possible outcome (other than 'a diplomatic solution with no shots fired', obviously). Everybody wants to know how this is going to end, but the unsatisfying answer is we will have to wait and see until it's clearer, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Sad it come to this because of a few scared men in Kreml. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 All hinges on if Putin goes on to attack a NATO state. I don't see him doing that in the short term. But the resources he captures from Ukraine only make him stronger. I doubt the sanctions will make much difference . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, 7392craig said: He’s lost the plot. I can’t see how he thinks Russia comes out better if this runs it’s full course. Seriously ? He will own a country with 40m people. And all the reserves they have. Russia gets stronger - no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't think we know that your initial thought was wrong yet, and if it is wrong, we do not know how far wrong. The issue could not be 'resolved' up until now because the Ukrainian government - as its sovereign right - had written the pursuit of NATO membership into its constitution and political reality within Ukraine meant it was never on the negotiating table. Ukraine's course - which again, it had the right to choose - always contained the risk of conflict with Russia, which had made clear it would not accept this (which again, to be clear, does not mean that Russia's actions are *moral* or *justified* - they aren't). Is this the start of 'something bigger'? It's way too early to tell. The early hours of an attack are always extremely dramatic and the age of rolling news coverage from everywhere definitely amps this up to a huge degree. But everything that has happened so far is still consistent with essentially any possible outcome (other than 'a diplomatic solution with no shots fired', obviously). Everybody wants to know how this is going to end, but the unsatisfying answer is we will have to wait and see until it's clearer, To be clear, I agree with all of that. I’m just a little bit more worried than I was a couple of days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: This isn't up to non-members to decide, it's up to NATO members. The thing is, I doubt NATO would be against admitting Finland (probably the best defensive army in Europe) and Sweden (good population pool, extremely good fighter aircraft), these two are also part of the EU which means they're much harder to invade from the get go. Georgia on the other hand? Where does Turkey stand in all this? Erdogan is also a madman, but he's proven that he's able to call out Putin when need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 24, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't think we know that your initial thought was wrong yet, and if it is wrong, we do not know how far wrong. The issue could not be 'resolved' up until now because the Ukrainian government - as its sovereign right - had written the pursuit of NATO membership into its constitution and political reality within Ukraine meant it was never on the negotiating table. Ukraine's course - which again, it had the right to choose - always contained the risk of conflict with Russia, which had made clear it would not accept this (which again, to be clear, does not mean that Russia's actions are *moral* or *justified* - they aren't). Is this the start of 'something bigger'? It's way too early to tell. The early hours of an attack are always extremely dramatic and the age of rolling news coverage from everywhere definitely amps this up to a huge degree. But everything that has happened so far is still consistent with essentially any possible outcome (other than 'a diplomatic solution with no shots fired', obviously). Everybody wants to know how this is going to end, but the unsatisfying answer is we will have to wait and see until it's clearer, Fully agree but you mention an attack, this is a full scale invasion of a sovereign nation, in world history such actions have never ended well Edited February 24, 2022 by Follyfoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Biden seems a bit of a pussy. Will he bottle doing anything of substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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