The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think there's a distinction between Johnson & the Tories in General. I agree with you on the Tories but I get the impression that they have turned on Johnson himself

Agree vis a vis the distinction, but I think this is more of a 'remember we need taking care of too' reminder. I remember how they treated May in her final weeks in charge, it was a lot harsher than this. When they've actually turned, I don't think we'll be debating it because it'll be pretty obvious.

[Enda]

3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Agree vis a vis the distinction, but I think this is more of a 'remember we need taking care of too' reminder. I remember how they treated May in her final weeks in charge, it was a lot harsher than this. When they've actually turned, I don't think we'll be debating it because it'll be pretty obvious.

The British media landscape is wild.

[Genie]

 

[HanoiVillan]

Mildly interesting poll:

Quite amusing to see that 9/10 voters on either side haven't changed their minds. The interesting category is '2016 No vote', which is a little confusing - it could mean either 'people who were too young to vote in 2016' or 'people who were old enough to vote but didn't bother'. It's not clear from the poll which is being measured or if it is both, though one sentence on their website suggests it may be both:

'...while many feel like the issue is best put to bed, the high levels of support for re-joining amongst younger voters, as well as the significant proportion who would back having such a referendum in the first place, indicates that the Brexit story isn't going away any time soon. And, if it were to happen, all eyes will be on those who did not vote in 2016 and younger voters who may have not had the opportunity to, who are both overwhelmingly in favour of the UK becoming a member again.'

(from: https://comresglobal.com/polls/eu-referendum-polling-12th-november-2021/)

Given that 9/10 voters who voted before haven't changed their minds, we may make a guess that there could be a movement here which is generational, ie older people dying and younger people replacing them in the electorate. We can't be sure that's the main driver, given the poll doesn't specifically measure this, but it's not a ridiculous hypothesis given the fact that age is so highly-correlated with leave voting.

It does seem to suggest that the issue may not disappear from the radar, though rejoin enthusiasts should remember that people who couldn't be bothered to vote in 2016 are not a reliable group for any future referendum either, whatever they say to pollsters.

All told, this poll moved me just a little in the 'maybe we're gonna end up going back to this topic again in the future' direction. Which will probably be a(nother) disaster for the Labour party I suppose.

[sidcow]

Certainly most young people I hear from wanted to remain in. 

My son can vote now and he would definitely vote to go back in. 

My daughter will be able to vote from next year and she would too. 

Both my parents in law have died since the vote and they both voted out.  That's quite a swing in 1 family. 

[bobzy]

Quite interesting that 11% of people who voted to Remain have then witnessed this shit show and, if given the chance to do it all again, would go "actually, let's stay out".

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The interesting category is '2016 No vote', which is a little confusing - it could mean either 'people who were too young to vote in 2016' or 'people who were old enough to vote but didn't bother'. It's not clear from the poll which is being measured or if it is both, though one sentence on their website suggests it may be both:

Its both

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Quite interesting that 11% of people who voted to Remain have then witnessed this shit show and, if given the chance to do it all again, would go "actually, let's stay out".

I was going to say this, I’d love to know what made them come to that conclusion.

I know a few trades who have work coming out of their ears since we left (and so did a lot of their competitors). Maybe it’s them.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Genie

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

I was going to say this, I’d love to know what made them come to that conclusion.

Can't be arsed going through that shit again is what I imagine the prime motivator is, along with we wouldn't go back in with the same deal we had last time (and that does make a significant difference), oh and we'd probably have to have the Euro....

[StefanAVFC]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

I was going to say this, I’d love to know what made them come to that conclusion.

'We respect what the people voted for, I'm a democrat'.

I know 3 people who have that opinion. All disgustingly sycophantic Tories though.

[Genie]

I did an edit and think that trades who have increased prices massively and still have more work than they can handle might fall into the “I didn’t realise how lucrative it would be once all the Eastern European tradesmen left”.

[ml1dch]

27 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Mildly interesting poll:

Quite amusing to see that 9/10 voters on either side haven't changed their minds. The interesting category is '2016 No vote', which is a little confusing - it could mean either 'people who were too young to vote in 2016' or 'people who were old enough to vote but didn't bother'. It's not clear from the poll which is being measured or if it is both, though one sentence on their website suggests it may be both:

'...while many feel like the issue is best put to bed, the high levels of support for re-joining amongst younger voters, as well as the significant proportion who would back having such a referendum in the first place, indicates that the Brexit story isn't going away any time soon. And, if it were to happen, all eyes will be on those who did not vote in 2016 and younger voters who may have not had the opportunity to, who are both overwhelmingly in favour of the UK becoming a member again.'

(from: https://comresglobal.com/polls/eu-referendum-polling-12th-november-2021/)

Given that 9/10 voters who voted before haven't changed their minds, we may make a guess that there could be a movement here which is generational, ie older people dying and younger people replacing them in the electorate. We can't be sure that's the main driver, given the poll doesn't specifically measure this, but it's not a ridiculous hypothesis given the fact that age is so highly-correlated with leave voting.

It does seem to suggest that the issue may not disappear from the radar, though rejoin enthusiasts should remember that people who couldn't be bothered to vote in 2016 are not a reliable group for any future referendum either, whatever they say to pollsters.

All told, this poll moved me just a little in the 'maybe we're gonna end up going back to this topic again in the future' direction. Which will probably be a(nother) disaster for the Labour party I suppose.

Mildly interesting as you say, but the main barrier to any potential rejoining isn't going to be from this side of the Channel.

Until there is near consensus on reapplying (which is probably the term people should use, rather than rejoining) then I think they'll be quite happy keeping us at arm's length. Particularly while the current arrangements favour them so heavily. 

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Mildly interesting as you say, but the main barrier to any potential rejoining isn't going to be from this side of the Channel.

Until there is near consensus on reapplying (which is probably the term people should use, rather than rejoining) then I think they'll be quite happy keeping us at arm's length. Particularly while the current arrangements favour them so heavily. 

Not so sure about that, the EU has for quite sometime been an expansionist Trading Bloc, on the whole they'd still prefer us to be in than not. Look at Macron, the way he's acting, he wouldn't be doing that if he wanted us to stay out. He's doing it because he wants Brexit to be bad. Sure they'd need some reassurance (and a complete change of Government here) but ultimately they still want us back in.

Agree on the reapply vs rejoin

[HanoiVillan]

30 minutes ago, bickster said:

Can't be arsed going through that shit again is what I imagine the prime motivator is, along with we wouldn't go back in with the same deal we had last time (and that does make a significant difference), oh and we'd probably have to have the Euro....

Indeed; given those three big reasons, the surprise is not that 11% is so big, it's that it's so small. To a rough approximation, hardly anyone who wasn't already convinced by leaving has become convinced since the referendum. There are many, many, many reasons why we might not ever get close to rejoining, but from a leave perspective, if you want 'being out' to be a stable equilibrium, you probably want to persuade at least a chunk of the electorate that it was a good idea at some point.

Edited November 12, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[meregreen]

Just now, bickster said:

Not so sure about that, the EU has for quite sometime been an expansionist Trading Bloc, on the whole they'd still prefer us to be in than not. Look at Macron, the way he's acting, he wouldn't be doing that if he wanted us to stay out. He's doing it because he wants Brexit to be bad. Sure they'd need some reassurance (and a complete change of Government here) but ultimately they still want us back in.

Agree on the reapply vs rejoin

It only takes one country to veto us from rejoining though. Memories of De Gaulle here. Gibraltar could be a problem with the Spanish. 

[HanoiVillan]

There are just tons of domestic problems to hurdle before you even got the re-application to be honest:

1) You would need this polling shift to be a stable trend, not to end or reverse (and some reasons why it might are that older remain voters might become leave-inclined as they age, and that 'politically engaged teenagers who were too young to vote in 2016' are a finite number of people who are all already in the electorate, so there's not much guarantee that younger people will remain rejoin-inclined).

2) You would (almost certainly) need a Labour government, which looks a very distant prospect, and even if you had one you would need them to a] *want* to go through it all again, and b] believe that it wouldn't lose them the next election after (which it arguably would).

I think the poll is interesting, but I don't think it raises my probability for us rejoining much; what I think it shows is maybe (a bit) more likely is that Europe-as-an-issue stays on the agenda, and that 'how to deal with the European question' further destabilises the Labour party between 'idealists' and 'pragmatists'.

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, meregreen said:

It only takes one country to veto us from rejoining though.

Yes I agree but these things are usually all sorted out in advance these days, the days of a De Gaulle are long gone. The Spanish might think of Gibraltar but they'll also have to think about the money that they are losing out on by only having Brits there for 6 months of the year etc as time goes on that will start to be a factor too

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

...and that 'politically engaged teenagers who were too young to vote in 2016' are a finite number of people who are all already in the electorate, so there's not much guarantee that younger people will remain rejoin-inclined).

There is also a counter balance to that in that currently employed Middle Aged people will look to be able to retire to Europe etc and that may also affect voting intentions if the scenario ever arose.

[Genie]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

There is also a counter balance to that in that currently employed Middle Aged people will look to be able to retire to Europe etc and that may also affect voting intentions if the scenario ever arose.

I’m coming up to 40 and really hope we’re back in before I get to retirement age as I’d bloody love to have a place in Spain somewhere to spend some/all of my time.

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m coming up to 40 and really hope we’re back in before I get to retirement age as I’d bloody love to have a place in Spain somewhere to spend some/all of my time.

Yeah, it definitely ruined my 'retire to a Greek island' plan.