The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Awol]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think you're extremely optimistic. 

The EU is a club of 27 members. Whatever deal we agree will have to be ratified by 26 countries. It's unlikely to be favourable. Romania, for example, has almost no bilateral trade with Britain, and we would (presumably, since it's what Outers are voting for) be kicking Romanians out of the country or at the very least refusing to let (m)any in. So what's their motivation for bending over backwards to present us with fantastic new terms?

No one, on the leave side of this debate has said one word about people being kicked out of the country. 

The only people I've heard it from are the dirtier remain supporters, in particular that little rat Will Straw. The apple really didn't fall far from the tree in his case. 

If the likes of Romania try to spanner an EU deal with the UK they may get more than they bargained for. 100,000's of German car manufacturing jobs are tied up directly with exports to the UK. Germany will crush them. 

[lapal_fan]

43 minutes ago, TheStagMan said:

Your right, it is boring hearing about how we should all love each other and live in a happy hippy commune..... and send this country to shit in the process...

Frankly, I want the money I pay in taxes to go to helping the poor, homeless and hungry in this country - not go toward building new roads in Bulgaria so that locals can get to the ski slopes quicker (look up Dobrinshte - nice new EU road up to the ski area that very few people use....).

Frankly I care about this country, and I want it to be better, and not be a crowded , concrete island where future generations cannot afford to buy a house, get a school place or see a doctor.

Nothing to do with colonialism (seriously??? Wow!). And we can happily collaborate with others OUTSIDE the EU (as has been demonstrated by Dave, we have zero influence inside it).

Hopefully the people of the UK will see sense, vote leave and that will be the event that brings down the whole house of cards.....

But then I am "male and pale" and over 30 so hey......

I don't think your 1.6p per pound in tax towards the E.U will make much difference, unless you're putting significant amounts of tax into our treasury.  But then, if you were all rich, of course you'd be scared of losing whatever it is you have

So you've been around for 30+ years, meaning you've never known anything else but being part of the EU.  Interesting that it's seemingly now apocalyptic should we remain in 2016!  Strange thinking.

I'm not hippy dippy (I'm quite money driven/hungry and I'm pretty selfish), but I like to think of myself as progressive.  When I die I don't imagine my son (maybe another one later) will have much to cheer about when my estate falls to him, just a house I guess, and a few meager possessions.  I can say one thing though, you're really lucky you were born into this country, at this time.  We're not fighting for survival, we don't have to fight for food, or water or any of the basic things to survive.  We live in the most comfortable times ever - and yet some people are still scared and worried - that's mental. 

This referendum is basically choosing who you want (as a general person in the UK) to **** you.  A guy brought up in Eton, wearing a Grey suit - or a guy brought up in Brussels, wearing a blue suit. 

I don't begrudge other nations improving at our (small) cost, we've taken enough over the years from most places to afford other nations some slack.  I also try to put myself in immigrants shoes and think I'd probably come here or to Germany for work & raise my family if I were from a poorer nation.  This is legal immigrants, don't forget - the illegals will still be a problem should we choose to leave.  And if one of those people can do your job better than you for less money, then you should work harder - you've had the benefit of this great countries education.

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by lapal_fan

[Fairy In Boots]

20 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think you're extremely optimistic. 

The EU is a club of 27 members. Whatever deal we agree will have to be ratified by 26 countries. It's unlikely to be favourable. Romania, for example, has almost no bilateral trade with Britain, and we would (presumably, since it's what Outers are voting for) be kicking Romanians out of the country or at the very least refusing to let (m)any in. So what's their motivation for bending over backwards to present us with fantastic new terms?

As if the EU will let the small countries issues get in the way of a top 10 world economy coming to the party, Romania will get strong armed, let's not pretend the EU is different to any other organisation the paymasters and money earners like Germany etc say jump and the rest say how high.

[lapal_fan]

Full my arse.

Edited May 31, 2016 by lapal_fan

[Chindie]

Aid isn't altruistic. That money isn't going for some 'hippy ideal'. It's to develop relationships, ultimately creating customers, clients and partners. Or the environment to brain drain. It has the benefit of making us look good (allowing us to leverage the moral high ground whenever we might need to) and, yes, ultimately making some other people's lives better. If that was the only benefit, we wouldn't bother. Besides which, whilst we may be a generous aid giver, it's still a pittance in the grand scheme of government spending. The EU does the same thing. Spain used to be the poor man of Europe and got lots of EU money spent on it. Then it wasn't any more as new nations joined and as Spain had developed infrastructure and the money shifted to get the new poor men on their feet and start selling them things and put more money in their pocket to buy things from us, and also maybe encourage some of their people to take a chance on a better life now to ultimately improve wherever they end up... As said, aid isn't altruistic. Pretty much nothing is altruistic. But in politics? Nope.

Anywho... Having mentioned it the other day I was going to link to the article on sovereignty I read. But it turns out it was in the FT and I'm not paying for it. Suffice to say it was a good article though.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

As if the EU will let the small countries issues get in the way of a top 10 world economy coming to the party, Romania will get strong armed, let's not pretend the EU is different to any other organisation the paymasters and money earners like Germany etc say jump and the rest say how high.

...and yet, as a member and a net contributor we haven't been able to 'make them jump', but once we leave they will respect us more and our negotiators will become much much better at the game?

All in a time frame that won't cause the market to wet its collective pants and put all its money somewhere else?

All in a time frame that won't risk investment and jobs?

All in a time frame that won't be delayed by the main show in town, the battle to be leader of the tory party?

All whilst we cut fuel bills, earn more money, have a better NHS, lower taxes and anything else they can add to the wishlist?

 

 

 

[brommy]

Idea for the leave campaign -

1) Take a dingy over to the coastal area adjacent to Calais and offer it as easy access to the UK.

2) Ensure said dingy doesn't have quite enough fuel to return all the way to Kent.

3) Post on social media about a dingy full of immigrants spotted in trouble near the coast of Kent.

4) Repeat steps 1 to 3 twice weekly, up until and including the morning of 23rd June.

 

[Fairy In Boots]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

...and yet, as a member and a net contributor we haven't been able to 'make them jump', but once we leave they will respect us more and our negotiators will become much much better at the game?

All in a time frame that won't cause the market to wet its collective pants and put all its money somewhere else?

All in a time frame that won't risk investment and jobs?

All in a time frame that won't be delayed by the main show in town, the battle to be leader of the tory party?

All whilst we cut fuel bills, earn more money, have a better NHS, lower taxes and anything else they can add to the wishlist?

 

 

 

yeah but we've been boy who cried wolf on this though haven't we, saying you're thinking about leaving and actually leaving are two very different things.  My Mrs threatens at least 3 times a week, only when she actually storms off do I rouse myself to solve the issue. Also Cameron is finished no matter the result now so the Tory leadership struggle is inevitable now. There's definitely risk involved with voting out I won't argue that but taking a chance on exiting a sinking ship or going down with it what, choice do we have?

Brexit won't solve all our issues overnight but it will give us the greater hand in addressing our issues, in footballing terms the UK is a bit like being a manager identifying issues with the squad and then getting ignored while players that aren't needed are signed via Moneyball style scouting. It will of course take a decade minimum to build our dream UK, and as with life it will have faults but we won't get anywhere as long as we aren't allowed to try.

[Fairy In Boots]

31 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

Full my arse.

The neatness of the handwriting actually ties in with the intelligence of the post, was that intentionally sarcastic?

[HanoiVillan]

51 minutes ago, Awol said:

No one, on the leave side of this debate has said one word about people being kicked out of the country. [1]

The only people I've heard it from are the dirtier remain supporters, in particular that little rat Will Straw. The apple really didn't fall far from the tree in his case. 

If the likes of Romania try to spanner an EU deal with the UK they may get more than they bargained for. 100,000's of German car manufacturing jobs are tied up directly with exports to the UK. Germany will crush them. [2]

1] You're right, 'kicking out' is slightly intemperate language. But I also haven't seen much of a plan related to EU citizens who are lawfully in the country now without a visa. Are they all going to have to apply for one? Are they all going to be accepted? If not, people will be being forced to leave, maybe gradually, maybe humanely, but forced to leave nevertheless. 

2] Doubtless you would be able to find a similar link for every one of the 26 other nations. But it only takes one to disagree on each issue to slow the agreement down massively, and there will be hundreds, if not thousands of separate issues. And not every one will be individually important enough for Germany to sever relations with a country over. In fact, almost none of them will be. 

[tonyh29]

57 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

I don't think your 1.6p per pound in tax towards the E.U will make much difference,

you've obviously not been to the thread where people wanted to commit regicide over 56p a year tax they pay  towards the Royal family  

 

 

 

[Awol]

8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

1] You're right, 'kicking out' is slightly intemperate language. But I also haven't seen much of a plan related to EU citizens who are lawfully in the country now without a visa. Are they all going to have to apply for one? Are they all going to be accepted? If not, people will be being forced to leave, maybe gradually, maybe humanely, but forced to leave nevertheless. 

2] Doubtless you would be able to find a similar link for every one of the 26 other nations. But it only takes one to disagree on each issue to slow the agreement down massively, and there will be hundreds, if not thousands of separate issues. And not every one will be individually important enough for Germany to sever relations with a country over. In fact, almost none of them will be. 

Everything I've read about this issue & everything said on it by the leave campaign (granted they are not the government) has been unequivocal about all EU citizens legally resident in the UK  (and all of them are) at the moment being entitled to stay - approx 3.1 million people we know about.

Were anyone in power to suggest otherwise they would rightly be slapped down hard by civil society & more practically invite a response in kind from the EU. It ain't happening.

If we do leave (and I'm not optimistic about that) there will be a few months of hysterical shouting from the continent for sure. Then people will all sit down and try to work out how to reach the best terms for all involved. 

If UK is not to be in the EU then the next best thing for them and us is to be very closely allied, like the US/UK relationship on steroids. We cease to be a break on the necessary integration they must undertake to save the € and the union, they retain the UK's diplomatic and military weight as something like an associate partner country. Not in the EU but standing with them on the big geopolitical stuff. 

It's not arrogance to say we are different from Norway or Switzerland (lovely countries though they are) that can effectively be pushed around by Brussels. The U.K. is still a big player in our own right and can offer a lot to the EU in terms of intelligence, military and diplomatic support, in addition to being the euro area's largest export market. 

International relations is a very practical, emotionless business and at that level it's all about interests. I've no doubt we will all work out a relationship that works for everyone within the two year divorce period.

If in a worst case that doesn't happen, we default onto WTO trading rules and tariffs that are on average around 2.5%, or the equivalent of the FX risk on international trade. It is definitely not the potential disaster the idiot Cameron is dressing it up to be, but he's playing for his job so no surprise he's gone so far off the rails.

[tinker]

What pisses me most of all is the way all of our politicians seem to say it would be wrong to leave yet they have let us make the decision despite the fact most of us have  nowhere near enough information to make the correct decision. Spineless the lot of them.

[lapal_fan]

2 minutes ago, tinker said:

What pisses me most of all is the way all of our politicians seem to say it would be wrong to leave yet they have let us make the decision despite the fact most of us have  nowhere near enough information to make the correct decision. Spineless the lot of them.

They did that to stay in power

stupid is probably a better word.

[tinker]

3 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

They did that to stay in power

stupid is probably a better word.

Shall we settle for spineless and stupid?

[HanoiVillan]

12 minutes ago, Awol said:

Everything I've read about this issue & everything said on it by the leave campaign (granted they are not the government) has been unequivocal about all EU citizens legally resident in the UK  (and all of them are) at the moment being entitled to stay - approx 3.1 million people we know about.

Were anyone in power to suggest otherwise they would rightly be slapped down hard by civil society & more practically invite a response in kind from the EU. It ain't happening. [1]

If we do leave (and I'm not optimistic about that [2]) there will be a few months of hysterical shouting from the continent for sure. Then people will all sit down and try to work out how to reach the best terms for all involved. 

If UK is not to be in the EU then the next best thing for them and us is to be very closely allied, like the US/UK relationship on steroids. We cease to be a break on the necessary integration they must undertake to save the € and the union, they retain the UK's diplomatic and military weight as something like an associate partner country. Not in the EU but standing with them on the big geopolitical stuff. 

It's not arrogance to say we are different from Norway or Switzerland (lovely countries though they are) that can effectively be pushed around by Brussels. The U.K. is still a big player in our own right and can offer a lot to the EU in terms of intelligence, military and diplomatic support, in addition to being the euro area's largest export market. 

International relations is a very practical, emotionless business and at that level it's all about interests. I've no doubt we will all work out a relationship that works for everyone within the two year divorce period. [3]

If in a worst case that doesn't happen, we default onto WTO trading rules and tariffs that are on average around 2.5%, or the equivalent of the FX risk on international trade. It is definitely not the potential disaster the idiot Cameron is dressing it up to be, but he's playing for his job so no surprise he's gone so far off the rails.

[1] I very much hope you're right. 

[2] I wouldn't be so unhappy. Every poll I've seen this week has seen a big move towards Leave. 

[3] I think you're underestimating the complexity involved. It took Greenland two years to negotiate their own leave. We're a bit more complicated than that. Maybe they were just dawdling then though. Anyway, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. 

[snowychap]

A long read on the subject of acquired rights: What Happens to ‘Acquired Rights’ in the Event of a Brexit?

Quote

...

Conclusion

At present, we cannot know what might be negotiated in a Withdrawal Agreement, nor what the UK Government’s withdrawal strategy might be, nor indeed if the EU would be a hard bargainer, leading to negative economic effects for the UK. What should be clear is that, absent a Withdrawal Agreement which gives give clear protection of acquired rights, existing national, EU and international law does not offer a great deal of protection. So the content of the Withdrawal Agreement would be crucial. And in order to protect British citizens’ acquired rights in such an Agreement, reciprocity would be necessary (i.e. the UK would have to offer similar protections to those from other EU states). Otherwise UK citizens may sacrifice their current rights under EU law in the cause of British isolation.

 

[Awol]

18 minutes ago, snowychap said:

A long read on the subject of acquired rights: What Happens to ‘Acquired Rights’ in the Event of a Brexit?

 

Thanks for the link. Sadly I think the last six words betray a lack of objectivity, but I accept its not cut and dried at this stage. I do however have faith that common sense and decency will prevail. 

[snowychap]

13 minutes ago, Awol said:

Sadly I think the last six words betray a lack of objectivity

I wouldn't write off her blog and its conclusions on the basis of any possible/probable lack of objectivity, though. (Where in this debate do we find objectivity? )

Indeed, I'd suggest they are much more balanced and considered than those from such as the IEA, the Brexit pamphleteers, The Torygraph et al. who suggest that it's all fine and dandy for everyone because of article 70 of the Vienna Convention.

Edited May 31, 2016 by snowychap

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

If in a worst case that doesn't happen, we default onto WTO trading rules and tariffs that are on average around 2.5%

That's the preferred choice (not called as the worst case) stated by Michael Gove, leader of the out people. Which is basically saying stuff we buy is going to be between 2.5% and maybe 7% (for some items) more expensive, sorry 'bout that. Oh and our stuff will be more expensive for the foreigners, so we'll unfortunately sell rather less of it, so sadly jobs have to go. So yeah, inflation, job losses, but whahey! we're free. Isn't it great!