tonyh29 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said: Which is effectively what I've said. Granted I'm sumising, now put yourself in the EU's shoes one of your main contributors and biggest markets says I'm off. You have two years to sort out a deal, do you cut your nose to spite your face and be petty? or strike a favourable deal and possibly heavily insentivise return to the status quo? Article 49 is basically the political equivalent of a reset button, how and why we push it determines the future but we're to big a fish to not be wanted back in the aquarium. I'm led to believe by the remain supporters on here that Europe is going to deliberately spite us and throw every obstacle it can at us .... I don't really believe that view FWIW but I'm not sold on the idea that we can put all these trade deals in place either for that matter It would have to be the UK making the moves for Article 49 and re-entry would be on Europes terms , not ours ..... On top of that if a majority vote leave in June , how can a government then turn around and re-apply under 49 , 2 years later ? surely it doesn't have a public mandate to do so and we'd need another referendum ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 31, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted May 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Awol said: What your asking for is the outcome of a negotiation before the negotiation has taken place. Back to the barrister example, it's like saying I want you to argue for X,Y & Z... Now please tell me now what the result will be? It's impossible. In terms of generalities clearly the Leave side want to regain control of the judiciary (there is no discrimination between EU law and national law, only areas where the ECJ is yet to assert its supremacy over the national body of law. In principle the ECJ is sovereign), regain control of who is permitted to come into the country & maintain a level of free trade with the EU. The consequence of that is leaving the single market & having an FTA with the EU, because the single market entails the free movement of people. With a trade deficit of £60Bn plus in favour of the EU it's not credible that they wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK which is the euro zones largest single export market. EDIT to add: When primary and secondary legislation is added together, 55-65% of new laws in the UK come from the EU. That's not insignificant and beyond the UK's legal ability to stop. What I'm asking is for Leave to expand upon what they would be asking for. They have given basically no details at all. They've lied about how much it costs. They've said different answers as to whether they want to stay in the free trade thing. Some say yes, some say no. They haven't detailed what laws or even in what areas they want to repeal stuff that originated from the EU. Some say they want out of free movement, others say they want it, but only for Western European Countries. Will people need work permits? if not how will they control it all? What about Visas for travel to the UK? "With a trade deficit of £60Bn plus in favour of the EU it's not credible that they wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK which is the euro zones largest single export market." It's entirely credible that in order for us to get a trade agreement they would demand and get concessions. As you imply, it's a negotiation both sides have to give and take. We would not get everything we want. Nor would they. "there is no discrimination between EU law and national law" Yes there is. Massively so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, blandy said: I don't mean that anyone who wants to leave is a little englander. That wasn't my point at all. I do mean that there are a certain group of the Tory party that are little Englanders. There are probably a few L. E. s in Labour as well, though I haven't come across any that I can recall. They're just the kind of very nationalistic, anti-foreigner, borderline racist, "pull up the drawbridge, we're full....it's PC gone mad....Everyone on the dole is a scrounger....God bless the Queen....Oi Garçon two beers pronto..." types and their wealthier relatives. Sometimes they wear fancy dress of Nazi uniforms to Tory fundraisers or get caught muttering darkly off the record. like this guy you mean ? but think we are going off message now .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 31, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted May 31, 2016 13 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: One thing from the leave campaign is, how do they intend to stop immigration from how it is now? Its all good saying we can control our borders but how do you intend to stop them? Build a wall? Close the Euro tunnel? Exactly, Dem. There's currently more people coming to the UK from outside the EU than inside. We in theory can do whatever we want about that. But despite promising to get immigration to "10s of thousands" about 190,000 people came to the UK from outside the UK last year. so the reality and the promises are miles apart. Or to put it another way "they lie" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Tony, out will be out, the only possibility would be to rejoin at a later date - assuming there is anything left to join. The EU is heading for an epic fall absent full economic, fiscal and political integration. Youth unemployment is averaging 50% in the euro Med countries, Greece is coming around again, Italy is edging closer to the brink, France is in trouble and that's aside from the migration crisis. Get The End of Alchemy by Mervyn King. He lays out why the EZ is doomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 31, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted May 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: like this guy you mean ? If that's the Cannock MP - the one who did the Nazi Uniform and chanting, the slagging off the Olympics as "lefty multi-cultural crap.... Bring back Red Arrows, Shakespeare and the Stones" then yes. If not, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 31, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted May 31, 2016 13 minutes ago, Awol said: Being an island is pretty useful in that respect The UK isn't an Island. it has a land border with the EU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Awol said: Tony, out will be out, the only possibility would be to rejoin at a later date - assuming there is anything left to join. The EU is heading for an epic fall absent full economic, fiscal and political integration. Youth unemployment is averaging 50% in the euro Med countries, Greece is coming around again, Italy is edging closer to the brink, France is in trouble and that's aside from the migration crisis. Get The End of Alchemy by Mervyn King. He lays out why the EZ is doomed. Yeah I agree .. I was really discussing article 50 and 49 and my view of where it was possibly being misinterpreted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 16 minutes ago, blandy said: If that's the Cannock MP - the one who did the Nazi Uniform and chanting, the slagging off the Olympics as "lefty multi-cultural crap.... Bring back Red Arrows, Shakespeare and the Stones" then yes. If not, no. It's Bollocks. i.e. It's Ed Balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 37 minutes ago, Awol said: out will be out Is the government necessarily bound to invoke Article 50 if Leave wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 1 hour ago, Awol said: By the government's own figures we can expect inward migration of around 3 million net over the next decade. The vast majority will be hard working and a net gain in terms of tax receipts. Great, but where do you house them, where are the school places, hospital beds, where is the money to increase the capacity of transport infrastructure? It's not a black & white issue of whether the Treasury breaks even on tax in Vs benefits out per capita, it's the infrastructure to support that many new people. All big political parties want to remain yet none of them even have a plan to address these issues (because it won't affect them, and they are incapable of thinking strategically about the country's needs). It's no wonder immigration is gaining traction as a referendum issue. I can see what you mean. While the argument for immigration remains, that they are a net benefit to the exchequer, at what point does any government dare to ask the electorate for tax increases, to fund the infrastructure projects made necessary by the increased population? From what I hear from both sides of the debate, it is hard to believe anyone is actually against immigration. Both Labour and Conservative want immigration because it is a very good way of increasing economic growth, even if GDP per capita falls. The left are for immigration because the right don't want it and the right don't want it because the left do. Businesses want immigration because it fixes the labour market in their favour and benefit the most, while low-paid workers are the biggest losers. The present debate is very narrow and conveniently avoids enquiries into the plight of previous immigrants and how they have fared economically. Labour voters' enthusiasm for immigration is a mystery because with up to 70% of some immigrant ethnic groups living in low-income households (worse under Labour), it seems that they stop caring about immigrants, as soon as they arrive. Would it be too crazy to suggest that the government's priority should be to get previous immigrants integrated and skilled up, before they start importing a lot more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Milk and Honey Quote In the letter (in the Sun) the two Tory cabinet ministers (Johnson and Gove) state: "We believe working people will be better off if we leave the EU. "The NHS will be stronger, class sizes smaller, and taxes lower. "We’ll have more money to spend on our priorities, wages will be higher and fuel bills will be lower. I'm playing hard ball and holding out until they can promise longer, warmer, drier summers and snow on Christmas day. Sad thing is, there are sensible reasons to leave the EU which are not getting a look in whilst people respond better to a pasty waved from a tour bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 22 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said: I can see what you mean. While the argument for immigration remains, that they are a net benefit to the exchequer, at what point does any government dare to ask the electorate for tax increases, to fund the infrastructure projects made necessary by the increased population? From what I hear from both sides of the debate, it is hard to believe anyone is actually against immigration. Both Labour and Conservative want immigration because it is a very good way of increasing economic growth, even if GDP per capita falls. The left are for immigration because the right don't want it and the right don't want it because the left do. Businesses want immigration because it fixes the labour market in their favour and benefit the most, while low-paid workers are the biggest losers. The present debate is very narrow and conveniently avoids enquiries into the plight of previous immigrants and how they have fared economically. Labour voters' enthusiasm for immigration is a mystery because with up to 70% of some immigrant ethnic groups living in low-income households (worse under Labour), it seems that they stop caring about immigrants, as soon as they arrive. Would it be too crazy to suggest that the government's priority should be to get previous immigrants integrated and skilled up, before they start importing a lot more? I'm voting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 (edited) 31 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Milk and Honey I'm playing hard ball and holding out until they can promise longer, warmer, drier summers and snow on Christmas day. Sad thing is, there are sensible reasons to leave the EU which are not getting a look in whilst people respond better to a pasty waved from a tour bus. Thing is when speakers have tried to be honest they're shut down by their respective campaigns. For example on the remain side Paddy Ashdowm admitted food prices would drop by 8-15% outside the common agricultural policy, then Stuart Rose the head of BSE said wages for the lowest paid would rise. Both instantly banished from the campaign. On the leave side they keep sticking to the gross contribution figure on the basis that the rebate is discretionary. Strictly speaking true but not reflecting the actual situation. Then there's the Treasury figures... In one breath leave is a 'leap in the dark, in the next they have calculated the loss per household down to the nearest £100 in 2030. Farcical, the whole thing. Edited May 31, 2016 by Awol Accidental cursing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 28 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Milk and Honey I'm playing hard ball and holding out until they can promise longer, warmer, drier summers and snow on Christmas day. Sad thing is, there are sensible reasons to leave the EU which are not getting a look in whilst people respond better to a pasty waved from a tour bus. Of course, the great thing about being a senior figure in the Leave campaign, is that they're not actually in any position to implement any of the great things they say will come of leaving, so they can just blame everyone else if we do actually leave and none of it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheStagMan Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Which brings us full circle doesn't it? Those countries that aren't as economically strong as the UK reap the benefits of the money/grants from the E.U, to improve their infrastructure - so those countries can become more economically independent and then maybe just maybe, all those scroungers/cheap labour wouldn't be "tekkin our jerbs!". But without time/money, these things can't happen. A classic case of the have's and the have not's - let's try and get out of that colonial thinking, and help other people for a change. Wow, the more I think about it, the more stupid the out campaign is [emoji38] Helping people is one thing, we are one of the most generous aid givers in the world.... Sacrificing our country and sovereignty to support an expanded and disparate Europe is what is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 1 hour ago, snowychap said: Is the government necessarily bound to invoke Article 50 if Leave wins? I don't think it is legally bound to do so, but rejecting the result would lead to a very difficult place, imo. The people on both sides who care at all about the issue seem quite fervent in their belief - I know I am. The single most important thing is the losers respecting the result, whichever way it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, TheStagMan said: Helping people is one thing, we are one of the most generous aid givers in the world.... Sacrificing our country and sovereignty to support an expanded and disparate Europe is what is stupid. Evidenced by what? It's the 21st Century, there shouldn't be THEM and US. It should be WE. The internet exists now, there is no point in borders. Get out of this colonial thinking, collaborate with others and the world wouldn't be such a shit show. **** me, this is boring. Edited May 31, 2016 by lapal_fan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 4 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said: No I want out completely for good personally. But if we vote out but do end up taking a deal and remaining after the 2 year notice our leaving should ensure we've got a better deal from the EU at the very least. It's negotiations 101 start aggressive and settle somewhere lower down the scale that works for both. June 24th we inform the EU we intend to leave and tender our resignation, then they offer us more and if it's good enough we stay. We vote remain they'll not care and take us for granted. I think you're extremely optimistic. The EU is a club of 27 members. Whatever deal we agree will have to be ratified by 26 countries. It's unlikely to be favourable. Romania, for example, has almost no bilateral trade with Britain, and we would (presumably, since it's what Outers are voting for) be kicking Romanians out of the country or at the very least refusing to let (m)any in. So what's their motivation for bending over backwards to present us with fantastic new terms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheStagMan Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Evidenced by what? It's the 21st Century, there shouldn't be THEM and US. It should be WE. The internet exists now, there is no point in boarders. Get out of this colonial thinking, collaborate with others and the world wouldn't be such a shit show. **** me, this is boring. Based on money we give in aid.... look it up, Google is your friend..... Your right, it is boring hearing about how we should all love each other and live in a happy hippy commune..... and send this country to shit in the process... Frankly, I want the money I pay in taxes to go to helping the poor, homeless and hungry in this country - not go toward building new roads in Bulgaria so that locals can get to the ski slopes quicker (look up Dobrinshte - nice new EU road up to the ski area that very few people use....and when they do, it is to go skiing - or in the summer a nice walk in the mountains....whilst people here are queuing for food banks). Frankly I care about this country, and I want it to be better, and not be a crowded , concrete island where future generations cannot afford to buy a house, get a school place or see a doctor. Nothing to do with colonialism (seriously??? Wow!). And we can happily collaborate with others OUTSIDE the EU (as has been demonstrated by Dave, we have zero influence inside it). Hopefully the people of the UK will see sense, vote leave and that will be the event that brings down the whole house of cards..... But then I am "male and pale" and over 30 so hey...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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