blandy

Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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A good blog post by Alex Harrowell IMO:

What are Eurosceptics?

'So, about a year ago, I was writing about how the last thing Eurosceptics agreed on was what they were against. Now, it’s a commonplace to argue about whether Jeremy Corbyn – or some other politician, but usually him – is “really a Eurosceptic”. I think this question is no longer meaningful in the terms in which it is stated, not least because the meaning of the word “Eurosceptic” has shifted.

It was never really true to say that Eurosceptics were sceptical about the EU, in the sense of being ready to be convinced by evidence. Instead they were agin it. Very often they might prefer the EEA, or “the Common Market” as in the EU before the Maastricht Treaty, or something along those lines. But today, this is nowhere near enough for Eurosceptics to accept you as one of them. If you are in favour of joining the EEA, like Norway, you will be denounced.

The minimum ideological requirement is now that you demand the total end of all institutional links with the EU – out of the Customs Union, out of EURATOM, probably out of the Eurovision Song Contest. Not just that; you also have to prefer referendums to parliamentary democracy, adopt a generally authoritarian and nationalist worldview, and most of all, coarsen your style and tone. There’s a lot of other stuff you can pick from, but I’m trying to identify the minimum you’ll need in order to pass for Eurosceptic without getting too much abuse.

There are, of course, people on the Left who are sceptical about the EU. Typically, they object to its macro-economic policies in the Eurozone and to its enthusiasm for investor-state dispute clauses in trade agreements, such as TTIP and CETA. It is worth pausing here to remember that the broad Left across Europe regularly organizes mass protest campaigns about trade, they are sometimes successful, and they are invariably about investor-state dispute settlement. The existence of this massive campaigning infrastructure is a really important fact that has shaped a lot of activists and politicians.

The important distinction here is that the anti- or altermondialiste Left has objections to specific EU policies and very often to line-by-line changes in specific numbered paragraphs. Not rarely, they successfully get them changed. If they got a majority in the European Parliament, they would expect to name the new commission president and run the show their way.

This is, in a nutshell, how an opposition operates in democracy. They do not aspire to destroying the EU in a second springtime of nations, unlike Michael Gove MP. Nor do they see their relationship with the EU as a means to the nationalist transformation of their home countries. They do not denounce the citizens of nowhere, demand an end to experts, or aspire to banning the burka. Ironically, although they consider themselves revolutionaries they are some of the least fantastical politicians going. There is an enormous difference.

It is true that their votes, if they went as far as to vote for Brexit, counted in the same way. It’s also barely relevant with regard to the future. The radicalization of the Tories has redefined “Eurosceptic” to mean something like “suburban extreme nationalist”, and the key question is now whether you support that or not.'

http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2018/08/12/what-are-eurosceptics/

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Apparently, Wales has come to its senses and if a vote was held again, as a nation it would vote remain. Even Swansea which was 62% Leave would now vote remain, only 51% but that's a huge swing

There's an article on it in the Bob Server today but I can't be arsed with all the editing I'd need to do to post it, should be pretty easy to find though

A company called Focaldata has used the YouGov Poll data to work out that in total, 14 Welsh constituencies have shifted from Leave to Remain this year. That's a Labour heartland, maybe the Labour Party should start taking notice. Doubt they will though

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Ah found a more quotable piece in the Indy

Quote

More than 100 parliamentary constituencies which backed Leave in the 2016 referendum would now vote to remain in the European Union, according to new analysis of polling.

The findings suggested that most seats in England, Scotland and Wales now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.

Among constituencies found to have switched from Leave to Remain were arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson‘s Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath and the seats of pro-BrexitLabour MPs Frank Field in Birkenhead and Graham Stringer in Blackley and Broughton.

The findings will increase pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider Labour’s refusal to give its backing to a second referendum on EU membership.

Even though polls regularly report a strong lead for Remain among Labour voters, a majority of the party’s constituencies backed Brexit in 2016, leaving strategists wary of any suggestion that Labour might not deliver withdrawal.

The figures were produced by consumer analytics company Focaldata, drawing on two YouGov polls of a total of more than 15,000 people.

They found that 112 out of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales had switched from Leave to Remain since the referendum. These included 97 English seats, 14 in Wales and one in Scotland.

Under the Focaldata model, 341 constituencies now have a Remain majority, up from 229 in 2016.

The analysis, conducted for the Best for Britain campaign for a second referendum and the Hope Not Hate campaign against racism, puts Remain on 53 per cent support, against 47 per cent backing Leave.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, who spoke at a rally of People’s Vote supporters in Bristol on Saturday, said: “Whether someone voted to leave or stay in the EU in 2016, nearly everyone is disillusioned by the mess the Conservatives have made of Brexit.

“This research is yet more compelling evidence that the British people must be given the final say on any – or no – Brexit deal. The shallow argument against giving the people their say diminishes towards nothingness with every passing day.”

Sir Vince told the Bristol rally that opponents of Brexit must work together “as a team” across party divides in the drive for a second EU referendum.

The Lib Dem leader said it was clear the “centre of gravity” on Brexit is shifting in favour of a national poll on the final deal.

Sir Vince told the rally that since the 52 per cent-48 per cent victory for Leave in 2016, “the situation has changed, the facts have changed”.

“We were all told the British government was going to save vast amounts of money,” he said. “We now know that’s not the case: there’s the £40bn divorce settlement, the economy’s slowing down, there’s less money for the NHS

“We were told it was simple – it’s actually proving unbelievably complicated.

“Another thing that’s happened in the last two years is Trump. The whole premise of Britain embarking on some buccaneering free trading adventure around the world as a country independent of the EU has been completely negated by Trump’s protectionist agenda. This has made a complete and utter nonsense of it.

“So our position in arguing against Brexit and for a people’s vote is now stronger than ever.

“But we have to work together; we have to work across party frontiers.”

And he said: “This is a campaign that we can win. Keep fighting, keep campaigning and we will win at the end of this.”

He was joined by Conservative MP for Totnes Sarah Wollaston, who said: “To proceed with Brexit without a People’s Vote would be like a surgeon carrying out an amputation having sought their patient’s consent two years beforehand without either of them knowing whether they were going to lose a few toes or their whole leg.

“Informed consent to Brexit can only happen once people know the final deal – if any – and have clear information about the risks as well as any benefits.”

 

5

112 constituencies swung the other way according to that data and 53% Remain - 47% Leave

 

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

Ah found a more quotable piece in the Indy

112 constituencies swung the other way according to that data and 53% Remain - 47% Leave

 

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you got til it's gone..."

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On 10/08/2018 at 15:05, ml1dch said:

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Shock at The Heil as they discover that the consequence of ending free movement is that movement is no longer free.

Says a lot about their readership that Spain and Italy have to be specifically named as EU countries. It's perhaps surprising that they stopped short of stating that Benidorm will have an entrance fee.

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2 hours ago, fightoffyour said:

Says a lot about their readership that Spain and Italy have to be specifically named as EU countries. It's perhaps surprising that they stopped short of stating that Benidorm will have an entrance fee.

Wait until they discover that British driving licences might not be recognised in EU countries

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8 minutes ago, bickster said:

Wait until they discover that British driving licences might not be recognised in EU countries

Grayling has already been told that British trucks won’t be allowed to drive in Europe too. He seemed surprised...

 

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15 minutes ago, choffer said:

Grayling has already been told that British trucks won’t be allowed to drive in Europe too. He seemed surprised...

 

This government have killed political satire for decades, their incompetence and sheer dereliction of duty, aside from any politics, actually appears to know no depths

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Quote

 

The Bank of England has ploughed billions of the Treasury’s foreign currency reserves into euros since the Brexit referendum, in an apparent vote of confidence in the single currency.

Figures from the Bank — which manages stocks of foreign currency on behalf of the Treasury — show that Britain now holds more euros than dollars in its reserves, reversing the position of June 2016.

Campaigners for a fresh Brexit referendum seized on the numbers as evidence that the government was betting on the stability of the euro even as ministers push for a clean break with the EU.

Labour MP Chris Leslie, the former shadow chancellor and supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said: “The Treasury and the Bank are betting on the euro as a bulwark against growing instability in the world economy — instability that is being fed not just by Donald Trump and his enthusiasm for trade wars, but also by our own ministers’ dedication to delivering a hard Brexit that will cut us adrift from our biggest market and, in the catastrophic case of a ‘no deal’, potentially lead to serious chaos in supermarkets and money markets alike.”

Leslie added: “It hardly gets more ‘2018’ than this — ministers betting taxpayers’ money against the consequences of their own policies.”

 

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I guess this could have gone in the Tory thread but, given the relevance of citizens' rights and applications for this settled status stuff, I've popped it in here (a longish read on the link):

What happens if you mistakenly apply for British citizenship instead of indefinite leave to remain?

Quote

What happens when an American graduate, about to become eligible for indefinite leave to remain having lived lawfully in the UK for almost a decade, incorrectly thinks that he is eligible to apply for British citizenship and applies for that instead?

You might think that, for example, the Home Office would politely tell him “no” but offer to process a different immigration application for him instead. This is, after all, the department that is going to deal with the Brexit-related immigration problems of EU citizens using “common sense” (copyright: Sajid Javid).

Immigration lawyers know that, without profound institutional change, this is a hollow promise. The experience of this client of mine, Lucas, shows how brutally the Home Office routinely treats blameless migrants who end up in its clutches.

It also demonstrates how easy it is to become an “illegal immigrant”. The research consensus is that the majority of people living in the UK without permission have overstayed on their visa, rather than having snuck in. Lucas’s story is a case study in how overstaying can occur even if someone has no intention of letting their visa expire — with all the nasty consequences that follow.

Making the wrong application

...

Leave expired while naturalisation application was being considered

...

Application for leave to remain on human rights grounds

...

Arrest, detention, removal

...

“Case clearly without substance and cannot succeed on any legitimate view”

...

Removal averted and human rights appeal won

...

Three years of hell for Lucas, at huge cost to the taxpayer

...

The cost to the public purse of running this case? Luckily for him, Lucas was able to get legal aid for the majority of these proceedings. I’d estimate around £19,000 – 20,000 on legal costs taking into account legal aid, Home Office’s legal fees defending the judicial review, and the costs award made against the Home Office in those proceedings. Not to mention the cost of detention and the unquantifiable costs of court and judges’ time. Lucas himself paid around £4,000 in fees before he became destitute but the real issue is the human cost inflicted on him over these past three years.

And for what purpose? Simply because a young man makes a mistake and submits the wrong application on the wrong form? This could all have perhaps been averted had the Home Office been imbued with a culture of common sense and compassion rather than one of “computer says no” hostility.

This, then, is the record of is the organisation that is going to handle EU residents with “common sense” after Brexit. This is why immigration lawyers are profoundly cynical about such pieties. And this is why we will continue to be pessimistic until we see real evidence of the promised change in Home Office culture.

 

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I made the mistake of looking at the Leave.Eu Facebook page last night. I lost a little bit of faith in humanity. Lots of willful ignorance and Alt Right thinking. 

I have no problem with people having opposing views to me, I will listen to other ideas, but slot of the updates posted on that page are lacking in any factual basis. It's chest thumping nationalism, egging people to believe that we can no deal Brexit is a good thing for the economy, backing Boris Johnson to become prime minister and quoting Daily Mail articles.  One in particular about a greasy spoon that apparently got shut down because it put union jack flags on cocktail sticks in the fry up. 

I screenshotted some of the most upliked posts, I think they display to any sensible Brexit voters who they got into bed with. 

Lots of "We won two world wars against the Germans..." "People in Burkas are terrorists", "Remainers are traitors". 

These were not minority views, thousands of likes for these sorts of comments. 

 

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11 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

I made the mistake of looking at the Leave.Eu Facebook page last night. I lost a little bit of faith in humanity. Lots of willful ignorance and Alt Right thinking. 

I have no problem with people having opposing views to me, I will listen to other ideas, but slot of the updates posted on that page are lacking in any factual basis. It's chest thumping nationalism, egging people to believe that we can no deal Brexit is a good thing for the economy, backing Boris Johnson to become prime minister and quoting Daily Mail articles.  One in particular about a greasy spoon that apparently got shut down because it put union jack flags on cocktail sticks in the fry up. 

I screenshotted some of the most upliked posts, I think they display to any sensible Brexit voters who they got into bed with. 

Lots of "We won two world wars against the Germans..." "People in Burkas are terrorists", "Remainers are traitors". 

These were not minority views, thousands of likes for these sorts of comments. 

 

The extremists have never gone away.

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5 hours ago, VILLAMARV said:

The extremists have never gone away.

Nearly a million people/bots like this page. Very popular ideas. 

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On 16/08/2018 at 00:14, bickster said:

Wait until they discover that British driving licences might not be recognised in EU countries

Just out of interest what other countries’ driving licenses do the EU refuse to recognise? 

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2 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Just out of interest what other countries’ driving licenses do the EU refuse to recognise? 

They recognise those of every country with whom they have a treaty acknowledging the fact. Plenty of them will also require purchase of an International Driving Permit.

So as long as we come to a satisfactory arrangement and sign a new treaty that is agreed by all parties, then probably very little will change from where we are now. I can't imagine either side wants to get into a tit for tat about people driving around.

However if we don't do that, what definitely doesn't happen is that "everything just carries on as normal because it always did before".

If you really want to get into the weeds of it, you'll want Commission Decision (EU) 2016/1945 of 14 October 2016, on "equivalences between categories of driving licences". Be warned though, it's tens of thousands of words long. But afterwards you'll be an absolute authority on the subject that you're asking about...

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3 hours ago, wazzap24 said:

The 'No Deal' plans are set to be released next week then 

Who's excited?!  ?‍♂️

 

No Deal Plan revealed early:

1.0 If you have the money, consider the South of France, or maybe California

2.0 If you are not rich, consider stock piling tinned food now

 

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