The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[The Fun Factory]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

The scale of the predicted defeat is way beyond 1997 levels which was 418 (Lab) / 165 (Con) / 46 (LibDem). In 1997 the Tory share of the vote in polling was spot on, around 30-32% they are currently nearly 10 points below that

The current predictions have no modern precident, to describe it as a collapse does not do it justice. Labour could be in power longer than Blair / Brown as a credible opposition will need to form and it's quite possible given the current demographics that it will not be the Conservative Party as we know it today because a lot of their voters to put it bluntly may actually be dead before they get a shot at power again. The Tory party has been facing an age timebomb for some while and their policies currently are actually going to kill more of their voters

First past the post and the voting system will help the tories. Plus old people vote in higher numbers than young people.  Modern polling consistently polls centre left or progressive parties better than the actual outcome as shown recently in the Brazlian election.  It does look very likely that they will lose but the election is over a year away and if the war in Ukraine ends and energy costs decrease the may possibly improve their current low support.

[bickster]

Just now, The Fun Factory said:

First past the post and the voting system will help the tories.

No, it absolutely will not, their predicted share of the vote has dropped well below the level where that is the case. It will actually work against them. A 23% share of the vote gives them a tad over 7% of the seats

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Modern polling consistently polls centre left or progressive parties better than the actual outcome

Not particularly true in the UK. Shy Tory syndrome has only affected 2 general elections in modern politics. (lets define that as Thatcher coming to power for ease of argument)

[phily85]

I'm going to have to stop reading these end of the Tory party posts.

Im in the office and soon I'll be as aroused as a Tory MP searching for tractor pics in the house of commons

[bickster]

16 hours ago, ml1dch said:

Going to be a vit of a problem for the non-lunatic Tory MPs that they have to rely on the current membership demographics to keep hold of their seats...

 

Am I right in saying that Parliament has yet to approve the new boundary changes?

That could be intetresting in itself

[ml1dch]

54 minutes ago, bickster said:

Am I right in saying that Parliament has yet to approve the new boundary changes?

That could be intetresting in itself

In what way are you thinking? Enough stroppy Tory MPs rebelling because they are out anyway? 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

In what way are you thinking? Enough stroppy Tory MPs rebelling because they are out anyway? 

Yes, definitely. Well I'm not sure about enough but certainly some

[desensitized43]

I think the Tory's main problem is that there isn't an actual Tory party anymore. They are a collection of factions of the right that all don't like each other very much and in an ideal world you'd get some kind of split like with the Liberals and Labour but all sides recognise there just isn't enough right-wing support in the country to justify the existence of multiple parties of the right. They know that to split that vote means death to both sides.

What you have now is some kind of Game of Thrones level of treachery and infighting where the faction that's on top is being clawed at by the one currently at the bottom until you get a reversal and on and on we go.

 

[Guest av1]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

You may be witnessing the death of the Tory Party.

Sexy talk 

[juanpabloangel18]

5 hours ago, bickster said:

a lot of their voters to put it bluntly may actually be dead before they get a shot at power again

Also

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

[Wainy316]

 

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, juanpabloangel18 said:

Also

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

In 15 years time the ‘Gen X’ line will be where the ‘boomer’ line is and that upturn in the ‘Millennial’ line will take it towards the National Average while the ‘Zoomer’ line will appear in their place.

The whole thing carries on as before. 

[juanpabloangel18]

8 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

In 15 years time the ‘Gen X’ line will be where the ‘boomer’ line is and that upturn in the ‘Millennial’ line will take it towards the National Average while the ‘Zoomer’ line will appear in their place.

The whole thing carries on as before. 

The whole point of the piece is that millennials and Gen-Z are bucking the 'eternal' trend that people go more conservative as they age

 

Quote

 

The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britain’s “silent generation”, born between 1928 and 1945, were five percentage points less conservative than the national average at age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The “baby boomer” generation traced the same path, and “Gen X”, born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.

Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same trajectory, but then something changed. 

Let’s start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics: people become more conservative with age. If millennials’ liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35 they too should be around five points less conservative than the national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative. In fact, they’re more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history.

On to period effects. Could some force be pushing voters of all ages away from the right? In the UK there has certainly been an event. Support for the Tories plummeted across all ages during Liz Truss’s brief tenure, and has only partially rebounded. But a population-wide effect cannot completely explain millennials’ liberal exceptionalism, nor why we see the same pattern in the US without the same shock.

So the most likely explanation is a cohort effect — that millennials have developed different values to previous generations, shaped by experiences unique to them, and they do not feel conservatives share these.

This is borne out by US survey data showing that, having reached political maturity in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, millennials are tacking much further to the left on economics than previous generations did, favouring greater redistribution from rich to poor.

Similar patterns are evident in Britain, where millennials are more economically leftwing than Gen-Xers and boomers were at the same age, and Brexit has alienated a higher share of former Tory backers among this generation than any other. Even before Truss, two-thirds of millennials who had backed the Conservatives before the EU referendum were no longer planning to vote for the party again, and one in four said they now strongly disliked the Tories.

The data is clear that millennials are not simply going to age into conservatism

 

 

[ml1dch]

6 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

In 15 years time the ‘Gen X’ line will be where the ‘boomer’ line is and that upturn in the ‘Millennial’ line will take it towards the National Average while the ‘Zoomer’ line will appear in their place.

The whole thing carries on as before. 

Maybe. But also, maybe not.

People don't just receive their "I now vote Tory" badge in the post on their fiftieth birthday, and I think misunderstands the reason why that trend exists.

The important graph for "what makes someone vote Tory" isn't their age but their assets. And as people got older, they typically became more asset-rich and more likely to vote for what they felt was likely to see those assets best-protected. This is now the first time in modern history where people are going to be significantly poorer than their predecessors, and that motivation to become more Tory as they get older is vastly diminished - which is why you see those trends on @juanpabloangel18's graph.

It's spectacular just how little thought has gone into the last thirteen years of governance to try and build a voting coalition for the future. 

[Davkaus]

Indeed. Millenials became adults shortly before or after the GFC, took on increasing amounts of student debt, have lived through Brexit, Covid, another once in a lifetime crisis from energy costs, increasing amounts of the national budget goes on funding a state pension we'll be lucky to ever get ourselves, and we're also going to feel the rigorous shafting of climate catastrophe. The ladder has been pulled up on property ownership, relative pay is shit, pensions are shit.

I'm one of the lucky ones, but most of us have got no **** assets to vote to protect.

Ultimately it's not the generations; it's the wealth divide, it's the well-off shafting everyone else, but sometimes it's hard not to feel like Gen X and boomers sold us down the **** river and kicked all of their problems into the long grass for us to pick up.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Davkaus

[tinker]

13 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

It's not all of the previous generations, and I'm sure one of two would be righteously indignant if I didn't add that disclaimer, but for the most part, I feel like Gen X and boomers sold us down the **** river and kicked all of their problems into the long grass for us to pick up.

Very strange but quite predictable to blame whole generations for the problems we have now. Surely it's the lies we have all been sold by our politicians and the media led by the richest in society that have caused the issues we have now?

From where i stand all I see from a work point of view is the gradual decline of working practices, pensions shift pay, holidays that the generations of yesterday fought hard to gain and are now disappearing due to poor or no unions and the anti workers press, media and politicians.

Edited February 20, 2023 by tinker

[chrisp65]

As a Gen X, it’s been obvious since the start of selling off council houses without replacing them that this situation was inevitable.

But there’s nothing quite as tempting to people as appealing to their sense of selfish shallow short term personal gain.

 

[tinker]

5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

As a Gen X, it’s been obvious since the start of selling off council houses without replacing them that this situation was inevitable.

But there’s nothing quite as tempting to people as appealing to their sense of selfish shallow short term personal gain.

 

Fair comment, why don't our politicians bulld more council houses on brownfield land? Why let rich property developers benefit from the profits they can make from private developments? 

[Davkaus]

15 minutes ago, tinker said:

Very strange but quite predictable to blame whole generations for the problems we have now. Surely it's the lies we have all been sold by our politicians and the media led by the richest in society that have caused the issues we have now?
 

You caught me before I took a breath and updated my post. Agree with every word

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, tinker said:

Fair comment, why don't our politicians bulld more council houses on brownfield land? Why let rich property developers benefit from the profits they can make from private developments? 

Agreed, why not?

Well for a while remember the tories actively prevented councils from building additional homes. Plus, I guess, if government is involved then there is a triple whammy, their mates don’t make as much profit, their voters don’t see their paper wealth accumulate, their voters are at theoretical risk of needing to pay a penny more tax to organise state building of homes.