Mark Albrighton Posted December 17, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2021 Lib Dems win by nearly 6000 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted December 17, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Well, if even middle england has finally worked out we’re being run by a corrupt bullying clown child liar… Well done Shrops, welcome to the twentieth century… but brace yourselves, there’s more news… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Crucially, the turnout was only 46.3%. There's a bit of a swing to the other parties, but between them, Labour and the Lib Dems got 21500 votes, up from a combined 18k in 2019. The vast majority of tory voters just stayed home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Crucially, the turnout was only 46.3%. There's a bit of a swing to the other parties, but between them, Labour and the Lib Dems got 21500 votes, up from a combined 18k in 2019. The vast majority of tory voters just stayed home. And that’s all that needs to happen. No need to persuade people to vote Labour, or LibDem, or SNP, or Green. Just persuade enough of them that voting for a corrupt self appointed elite is not in their own interest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Crucially, the turnout was only 46.3%. There's a bit of a swing to the other parties, but between them, Labour and the Lib Dems got 21500 votes, up from a combined 18k in 2019. The vast majority of tory voters just stayed home. Ahhh, the sweet smell of disillusionment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 hours ago, KentVillan said: If anyone's awake, it looks like the Lib Dems have just won the North Shropshire by-election. Tories have held the seat for roughly 200 years. Great news to wake up to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted December 17, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2021 18,403 less voters generally than in 2019. 23,412 less Tory votes than in 2019. Pretty clear that the Tory voters didn’t turn up, but even so 5,009 more votes for the other parties still show a clear swing against the Tories in those that did turn up. Is there a chance that the country is finally turning on the Tories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Good result. I suspect it’s a result of the voters turning on Boris rather than the Tories personally, but hopefully some rubs off on the party as a whole. I hope Boris is still in charge for the next election, but that looks quite unlikely at this point tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Davkaus said: Crucially, the turnout was only 46.3%. There's a bit of a swing to the other parties, but between them, Labour and the Lib Dems got 21500 votes, up from a combined 18k in 2019. The vast majority of tory voters just stayed home. 1 hour ago, bobzy said: Ahhh, the sweet smell of disillusionment. 46.3% turnout is high for a by-election! Definitely top quartile for turnout, historically speaking. Edited December 17, 2021 by HanoiVillan 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Good result. I suspect it’s a result of the voters turning on Boris rather than the Tories personally, but hopefully some rubs off on the party as a whole. I hope Boris is still in charge for the next election, but that looks quite unlikely at this point tbh. I'm not sure. He does have the awe of 'trumpism', the though shall not be defeated sort of vibe. I reckon if we found out Boris is having an affair with Angela Merkel he would try to spin it in a positive light. Do you think he won't last? If so, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mic09 said: Do you think he won't last? If so, why? Because the only people who can remove him are his own MPs. And they are mostly "don't like him or his politics but like how people want to vote him / them". When the only reason people are keeping you in charge is your popularity, you're going to have a problem staying there if you suddenly become very unpopular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Mic09 said: Do you think he won't last? If so, why? To be clear, I think he will last and will lead them into the next election. But the bears' case would note: a] their poll numbers have been falling; b] some of the parliamentary party don't like him or trust or think he's very conservative, and have been backing him 'because he's a winner' but see point a; c] specifically on covid restrictions, the backbench rebellion this week suggests he's out of step with the party and its members, and d] the Parliamentary Conservative Party has become much more rebellious and willing to lash out since 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: specifically on covid restrictions, the backbench rebellion this week suggests he's out of step with the party and its members Not so sure about that. I mean, yes, 99 rebels suggests a chunk he’s out of step with, but that chunk is frankly a bit mad, or more mad. What struck me as odd, was the 99 throbbers were joined by (among others) Diane Abbot, Rebecca Wrong-Daily, Dawn Butler, all the Lib Dems and Caroline Lucas. I mean WTAF! So I don’t know quite what to make of it, other than a feeling that the majority of people, including tories, seem to feel the government was right to bring in more restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, blandy said: Not so sure about that. I mean, yes, 99 rebels suggests a chunk he’s out of step with, but that chunk is frankly a bit mad, or more mad. The public aren't particularly relevant to the question, nor is whether or not you or I agree with the rebels. What the vote demonstrates is that any plausible successor will have to be *less* restrictionist than Johnson, not *more*. They would not get sufficient support within the parliamentary party to get to the final two without that. The vote shows that covid restrictions are a high-salience issue for an influential part of the Tory base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The vote shows that covid restrictions are a high-salience issue for an influential part of the Tory base Yes, that I agree with. There’s enough of them to wield influence, but they don’t make up a majority of the party and its members, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted December 17, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2021 Tories held seat last night round by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Didn't expect that. That is a huge swing even for a by election. The Lib Dems benefitted from the Labour vote switching to them but even if the Labour vote had stayed the same from 2019 they would have still just about won it. BoJo is on thin ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, blandy said: Yes, that I agree with. There’s enough of them to wield influence, but they don’t make up a majority of the party and its members, IMO I wouldn't be so sure of that. In particular, 'covid restrictions' is a broad category. I would be prepared to believe, for instance, that a majority of the parliamentary party and its members can swallows 'masks on public transport', but I absolutely don't believe a majority would support 'another lockdown'. Johnson is trying to walk a fine line between party and public here, and if it seems like he's walking on a tightrope it's because he is. The bottom line is the whips are a powerful motivating force; you don't get 99 rebels without a very powerful motivating force in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 17, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: the vote demonstrates is that any plausible successor will have to be *less* restrictionist than Johnson, not *more*. I don’t think that’s at all certain, either. While Labour and most of the Tory MPs will carry forward these types of measures, tacking towards the throbbers is not necessary a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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