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Relegation Thread Version...99?!


jackbauer24

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2 minutes ago, BOF said:

I still believe we are down.  However, we don't need to make up 8 points on 'the pack'.  Just on Newcastle.  We need 4 on Sunderland and 7 on Norwich, plus the nature of everyone's goal difference being almost identical means that if we were to make up the points, we would by default then have the better goal difference, unless we get an absolute mauling at some point between now and May.  There is a glimmer and only a glimmer.  Here's hoping it's still there at 4pm on Sunday.

Indeed, and the 8 points on Newcastle is only 5, assuming we beat them second last day of the season. I agree though - only a glimmer.

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That's true.  It puts at least one 6-pointer into our hands.  We also play Swansea and Bournemouth and you never know.  Swansea face Spurs and Arsenal in the next month.  They could get dragged back in.  There's that glimmer again :)  We're also joint 4th in the form guide (past 5 games).

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18 minutes ago, BOF said:

That's true.  It puts at least one 6-pointer into our hands.  We also play Swansea and Bournemouth and you never know.  Swansea face Spurs and Arsenal in the next month.  They could get dragged back in.  There's that glimmer again :)  We're also joint 4th in the form guide (past 5 games).

We're in the zone though where one bad week will see us fall 11 points adrift again, and then the glimmer fades significantly. We need to win the next couple of games, and then when we lose 1 or 2 it won't finish us.

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we need to win the next 2 then I think we'll be virtually back in the pack. March is a very tough month but 2 wins would give everybody at the club belief. I think the players have it more than the fans at the minute so 2 wins would be immense for us the fans. We need a vibrant Villa Park to have a chance. 

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History tells us we can't sustain this form going forward, that's what worries me.

It's very well thinking "We've turned a corner" - but how many times have we said that over the last couple of years?

I still think we'll go down, purely because we're lucky to score >1 goal a game and concede <1 goal a game.

It's the hope that's annoying :lol:

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48 minutes ago, BOF said:

That's true.  It puts at least one 6-pointer into our hands.  We also play Swansea and Bournemouth and you never know.  Swansea face Spurs and Arsenal in the next month.  They could get dragged back in.  There's that glimmer again :)  We're also joint 4th in the form guide (past 5 games).

But our fixtures barring leicester have not been that difficult. I cant see us winning more than 3-4 games for reminder of the season unfortunately. But I feel optimistic that we will return at first attempt providing

1) garde stays

2) is backed

3) can keep a host of players

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31 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

History tells us we can't sustain this form going forward, that's what worries me.

It's very well thinking "We've turned a corner" - but how many times have we said that over the last couple of years?

I still think we'll go down, purely because we're lucky to score >1 goal a game and concede <1 goal a game.

It's the hope that's annoying :lol:

Recent history yes but you only have to look at the top of the table for inspiration. Even in the 2nd half of Lamberts first season we hit good form . If you accept we are down its all positive as long as we keep fighting. 

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30 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

But our fixtures barring leicester

That's true, but a lot of our results this season (though there's not many) have come against the better teams.

Leicester, West Ham, Man City, Palace, Southampton account for almost half our points. And they're all top half teams (or were when we played them)

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31 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

History tells us we can't sustain this form going forward, that's what worries me.

It's very well thinking "We've turned a corner" - but how many times have we said that over the last couple of years?

I still think we'll go down, purely because we're lucky to score >1 goal a game and concede <1 goal a game.

It's the hope that's annoying :lol:

Recent history yes but you only have to look at the top of the table for inspiration. Even in the 2nd half of Lamberts first season we hit good form . If you accept we are down its all positive as long as we keep fighting. 

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56 minutes ago, dn1982 said:

we need to win the next 2 then I think we'll be virtually back in the pack. March is a very tough month but 2 wins would give everybody at the club belief. I think the players have it more than the fans at the minute so 2 wins would be immense for us the fans. We need a vibrant Villa Park to have a chance. 

I don't think we need to win te next two to have a chance, I think we're down :)

BUT, if we get a point against Liverpool and 3 against Stoke, mathematically it's much more in our favour than at present. If Sunderland, Newcastle, Swansea, West Brom and Bournemouth all lose two on the spin and we get 4 points then I might start thinking there's a chance we won't finish bottom :) 

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24 minutes ago, romavillan said:

I don't think we need to win te next two to have a chance, I think we're down :)

BUT, if we get a point against Liverpool and 3 against Stoke, mathematically it's much more in our favour than at present. If Sunderland, Newcastle, Swansea, West Brom and Bournemouth all lose two on the spin and we get 4 points then I might start thinking there's a chance we won't finish bottom :) 

You can't beat positivity!!! I don't think we'll finish bottom I think Sunderland will and the chances are it'll be us then Norwich but the way we finish this season will be a big influence on next season so I want us fighting for everything. To stay up! To not finish bottom! To take Newcastle with us! Whatever it maybe as the season goes. Show fight and the fans will unite behind the team and Garde so next season we can be successful in whatever division!! 

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I'm totally down with the go down fighting thing, and yes it will be massive for how next season starts. Garde will weed out anyone who isn't fully with him I think. 

Obviously Garde and the players have to believe, I don't ;) I'm free to be a bit more realistic. Still though, if we can stretch our current last 5 form to the next 5 games, then the next 5... 

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