The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[blandy]

31 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Feel free to present some alternative evidence if you have it. 

Ultimately we're slightly disagreeing about whether the change between Lib Dem and UKIP was trivial or no-trivial. There is no evidence, only theories and broad data and different people's analysis of it. All the analysis I've seen theorises that the shift of Lib Dem voting was towards the tories and Greens and others and makes clear that on face value/first look  it might look like LibDem to UKIP was not trivial, but that it's actually more complicated than that.

We can be sure that in Scotland where the Lib Dems lost 10 seats, the shift from voting for Lib Dem to something else wasn't at all UKIP related. In England where UKIP was stronger and there was no SNP, basically no-one knows for sure, it's only opinion and theory. I'll stick with the bit you posted above -

Quote

We were kindly shown an advance copy of some of the data that David Howarth has extrapolated from the British Election Study data, and it presented substantial evidence that such cross-voting was going on in held Lib Dem seats, with Lib Dem losses to the Conservatives in previously-held Lib Dem seats, and Conservative losses to UKIP in such seats. This is not the place to pre-empt Howarth’s own findings, but we recognise their importance and relevance here.

As this is the Chairman Mao thread, that's probably enough (from me at least) on the LibDems.

[HanoiVillan]

Fair enough, back on topic 

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

On 2/25/2017 at 19:19, HanoiVillan said:

I guess I don't understand. You were talking about a Lib Dem candidate, during a competitive election, and seemed to be suggesting that her criticising the party of government was some kind of sin. Of course it's very important to have an argument, but it's primarily important to oppose. At the end of the day the voters will decide whose arguments they rate. 

She offered no worthwhile reason after speaking brilliantly; she just said she didn't want a Tory as an MP.
It's a really off putting parting soundbite. 

[Xann]

 

[Chindie]

I can't bear that man.

That video won't accept that Corbyn himself is a significant part of the problem. Yes the Blairite factions don't help - they presided over the fall of Labour and maintain the stink associated, and their actions help push the narrative further than Labour are a mess... But even without that Corbyn is in trouble. His policies don't play to the common man, he's vague, confused or outright daft in other stances (his handling of Brexit is the epitome of Labours mangled positioning on it), and his media savviness doesn't exist. His fans will argue the media is against him, and it is, but he can't ignore the media and when he didn't his use of it is shit. You either need to be pragmatic enough to hold your nose and use it, or you need to be a supremely talented and charismatic individual who can transcend it regardless. Corbyn is neither.

I actually support a fair amount of what Corbyn would like to do, and I think his attempts to steer Labour left are a good thing. So he should be onto a good thing with voters like me. But he's not. He's hopeless. If that idiot Pie can't realise that, Labour are even more **** than I thought, and I thought they were basically done as a party. This suggests the corpse might stink so much nobody will touch the ground associated with it.

[HanoiVillan]

50 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I can't bear that man.

That video won't accept that Corbyn himself is a significant part of the problem. Yes the Blairite factions don't help - they presided over the fall of Labour and maintain the stink associated, and their actions help push the narrative further than Labour are a mess... But even without that Corbyn is in trouble. His policies don't play to the common man, he's vague, confused or outright daft in other stances (his handling of Brexit is the epitome of Labours mangled positioning on it), and his media savviness doesn't exist. His fans will argue the media is against him, and it is, but he can't ignore the media and when he didn't his use of it is shit. You either need to be pragmatic enough to hold your nose and use it, or you need to be a supremely talented and charismatic individual who can transcend it regardless. Corbyn is neither.

I actually support a fair amount of what Corbyn would like to do, and I think his attempts to steer Labour left are a good thing. So he should be onto a good thing with voters like me. But he's not. He's hopeless. If that idiot Pie can't realise that, Labour are even more **** than I thought, and I thought they were basically done as a party. This suggests the corpse might stink so much nobody will touch the ground associated with it.

I wouldn't go quite that far - I find him entertaining, in a way - but in every single video of his I've ever seen, I've thought his conclusions were utterly and totally wrong, and this video is no exception, for all the reasons you've highlighted. 

Mandelson saying 'I hope Corbyn fails' might be pretty abysmal teamwork, but it's not the reason they lost the Copeland byelection. 

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

I can't bear that man.

That video won't accept that Corbyn himself is a significant part of the problem. Yes the Blairite factions don't help - they presided over the fall of Labour and maintain the stink associated, and their actions help push the narrative further than Labour are a mess... But even without that Corbyn is in trouble. His policies don't play to the common man, he's vague, confused or outright daft in other stances (his handling of Brexit is the epitome of Labours mangled positioning on it), and his media savviness doesn't exist. His fans will argue the media is against him, and it is, but he can't ignore the media and when he didn't his use of it is shit. You either need to be pragmatic enough to hold your nose and use it, or you need to be a supremely talented and charismatic individual who can transcend it regardless. Corbyn is neither.

I actually support a fair amount of what Corbyn would like to do, and I think his attempts to steer Labour left are a good thing. So he should be onto a good thing with voters like me. But he's not. He's hopeless. If that idiot Pie can't realise that, Labour are even more **** than I thought, and I thought they were basically done as a party. This suggests the corpse might stink so much nobody will touch the ground associated with it.

So your whole argument against Corbyn is he's not particularly suave? And that's more important than all his policies, even when you say you agree with them and think it's a good thing he's pulling Labour left?

Fair enough. I prefer to go with my conscience even if the figurehead looks like a Geography teacher. Their appearance is pretty far down my list actually.

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Fair enough. I prefer to go with my conscience even if the figurehead looks like a Geography teacher. Their appearance is pretty far down my list actually.

Arsenal play football the wenger way, it's the way his philosophy says, true to himself, year after year. Chelsea win the league, or Man U, or Leicester. Arsenal do just enough not to get wenger sacked.  A moral 4th place. Consciences clear.

[snowychap]

Another by-election in the offing then - Kaufman dead.

[dAVe80]

20 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Another by-election in the offing then - Kaufman dead.

Father of the House.

Huge Labour majority in his constituency. If the Conservatives take that seat, then I will be worried.

Edited February 27, 2017 by dAVe80

[sharkyvilla]

3 hours ago, dAVe80 said:

Father of the House.

Huge Labour majority in his constituency. If the Conservatives take that seat, then I will be worried.

I think the Tories would be worried too.  The last thing they want is Corbyn gone which losing that seat would surely mean.

[Awol]

6 hours ago, darrenm said:

Fair enough. I prefer to go with my conscience even if the figurehead looks like a Geography teacher. Their appearance is pretty far down my list actually.

I thought you'd concluded he was useless & gone back to the Greens? 

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

I thought you'd concluded he was useless & gone back to the Greens? 

Nope. I disagree with Corbyn's stance on brexit (which I think is the only thing you agree with him on?) but I certainly wouldn't call him useless. I'm ideologically most aligned with the Greens but Corbyn's Labour is close to that anyway. Where it seems some people would happily have Blair and a right wing Labour back rather than Jeremy Corbyn I'm only willing to go against my conscience a small amount to see the Tories removed. Then again I think Green and left Labour should become one party anyway and the right of Labour just take the masks off and join the Tories.

[Chindie]

7 hours ago, darrenm said:

So your whole argument against Corbyn is he's not particularly suave? And that's more important than all his policies, even when you say you agree with them and think it's a good thing he's pulling Labour left?

Fair enough. I prefer to go with my conscience even if the figurehead looks like a Geography teacher. Their appearance is pretty far down my list actually.

No.

I agree with a fair amount of what he would like to do, and I agree with with trying to shift the party to the left generally.

I disagree with most of his tentpole stuff, I think his Brexit performance has become an increasing joke, his leadership is dreadful, his positioning on the left isn't the left that will win election as he has always gone with the 'intellectual left' if you will, the left of the 70s student union, etc etc etc.

I don't really care of he's suave. You can play the media without being suave, or charismatic, your arguments and rhetoric must be on point and your understanding of the climate must be excellent, but it's doable. You can be a good leader without that too - look at Attlee. The embodiment of a committee leader, not suave charismatic or anything of the sort.

Corbyn is neither. So I admire some of what he supports, and the general idea of pushing Labour left I think is right, though I think his left is not going to do them much good at this point, but the rest of it so hopeless I can't support him.

[Awol]

51 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Where it seems some people would happily have Blair and a right wing Labour back rather than Jeremy Corbyn I'm only willing to go against my conscience a small amount to see the Tories removed. Then again I think Green and left Labour should become one party anyway and the right of Labour just take the masks off and join the Tories.

This plays into one of the broader discussions about wholesale political realignment that was going on here before the referendum. 

Blair isn't trying to take control of Labour again, he's trying (imo) to corral the worst of the so called centrist MP's into a new political formation / party that will aim to continue Blairism.

Clegg, Farron, Osborne, Soubry, Umunah, Mandelson are the types I'd expect to get involved, basically those who are irreconcilable either with Tory Euroscepticism or Corbyn's student leftism. 

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, darrenm said:

Then again I think Green and left Labour should become one party anyway and the right of Labour just take the masks off and join the Tories.

In other words, you would like a rump 'left' party that would be supported by a tiny percentage of the electorate, while explicitly making the Tories look like they occupy the centre ground of British politics. 

We're seeing what happens right now when all meaningful political debate happens inside the Conservative Party and parties of the left are an irrelevance. It's not been pretty. We don't need to institutionalise the arrangement. 

Edited February 27, 2017 by HanoiVillan

[Jon]

52 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

In other words, you would like a rump 'left' party that would be supported by a tiny percentage of the electorate, while explicitly making the Tories look like they occupy the centre ground of British politics. 

We're seeing what happens right now when all meaningful political debate happens inside the Conservative Party and parties of the left are an irrelevance. It's not been pretty. We don't need to institutionalise the arrangement. 

It would certainly open the door again for the Lib Dems to sneak back in and occupy that centre ground, as they kind of did in the 80s, before Neil saw what was happening and steered Labour back to the Centre.

Personally, and in line with King Clive and Queen Caroline, I'd love to see a Progressive Alliance of 'left' and 'centre left' parties, which would hopefully include Labour, Plaid, SNP, Greens & Lib Dems. Not 1 party, but different parties who have some differing opinions, but who can work together, especially come a GE, and not oppose each other and fracture the centre, centre left, left vote. A Rainbow Coalition of sorts. I honestly think, in terms of governing the country from the centre left, it's the only option. 

[darrenm]

5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

In other words, you would like a rump 'left' party that would be supported by a tiny percentage of the electorate, while explicitly making the Tories look like they occupy the centre ground of British politics. 

We're seeing what happens right now when all meaningful political debate happens inside the Conservative Party and parties of the left are an irrelevance. It's not been pretty. We don't need to institutionalise the arrangement. 

Fair point. I'd be one of the tiny percentage. I'm getting used to being in the minority even though I always thought I'm reasonably balanced on most things.

[Dr_Pangloss]

Corbyn is an utter failure who has failed time and time again to win people over with his policies, all he has ever done is preach to his choir. 

[darrenm]

Absolutely. Leader of the opposition who increased his mid-term member vote from 59% to 61% and has caused Labour to become the largest political party in Europe. Abject failure.