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2015 Takeover Thread


samjp26

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Anyone have a feeling Lerner is not gonna sell now?

 

Like a real horrible feeling?  I just hope this is a nightmare I'm having, and when I wake up tomorrow any talk of him no longer selling has disappeared.

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Anyone have a feeling Lerner is not gonna sell now

 

All depends on the price, but sounds like he is not desperate to sell either. Same with the olbion, if Peace doesn't trouser 100 million (really?) then he isn't going to sell up either. I guess if we continue to be interesting and win games with big crowds coming back to Villa Park, potential new investors may start to think about us again-provided we stay up.

Edited by The Fun Factory
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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

 

This - if anything the continuity would be better anyway. As I said, I'd like to see Fox and Sherwood working together and with as few disruptions as possible - can't think of many things more disruptive than an ownership change.

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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

 

This.

 

A change of owners can't spend or do anymore than Lerner is currently doing, besides maybe this is a case of better the devil you know.

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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

 

This.

 

A change of owners can't spend or do anymore than Lerner is currently doing, besides maybe this is a case of better the devil you know.

 

 

That argument was used in defense of Lambert. I'm not sure fear of the unknown should guide us.

 

As for not doing more than Lerner: Money talks. There are ways around FFP - paying the fee if you "overspend" is an obvious one.

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Yes, it's a way round FFP but the chance we have of getting somebody who is willing to burn tens of millions of pounds to do that, is practically none.

 

That argument in defense of Lambert was a weak one - with ownership it's a lot more pertinent.

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No it isn't! The initial fine is merely a sanction for first time offenders. Paying the fine is not a way around anything. I wouldn't want our new owner to risk it and we also don't know how hard the PL will come down on clubs who break their rules.

Why have Man City and PSG both been trying to avoid breaking the rules again? Why don't they keep brazenly breaking them and just paying the fine!?

Edited by Morley_crosses_to_Withe
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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

This.

A change of owners can't spend or do anymore than Lerner is currently doing, besides maybe this is a case of better the devil you know.

That argument was used in defense of Lambert. I'm not sure fear of the unknown should guide us.

As for not doing more than Lerner: Money talks. There are ways around FFP - paying the fee if you "overspend" is an obvious one.

Seriously? How can you compare the owner to the manager? Totally different arguments mate.

As for overspending? FFS do you want us to do a Leeds? The fines that can be imposed on clubs would cripple us and then there's transfer restrictions etc yeah great idea.

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Seriously? How can you compare the owner to the manager? Totally different arguments mate.

As for overspending? FFS do you want us to do a Leeds? The fines that can be imposed on clubs would cripple us and then there's transfer restrictions etc yeah great idea.

 

 

You miss the point.

 

The defense of Lambert was "there is no one better" and "better the devil you know".

 

"Fear of the unknown" is not a valid reason to stay with an incumbent if they cannot do the job - the point is that we should not use the same logic when it comes to the owner. If he's not doing a good enough job, there are plenty that can.

 

 

And for the second part? You miss the point.

 

Money talks. I'm not suggesting that new owners overspend beyond their means and "do a Leeds" but that rich enough owners (as unlikely as that may be) can make anything happen - including finding ways around FFP.

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I really don't recall anyone saying it would be better to keep Lambert, most of us wanted him gone long before he left.

I would rather keep Lerner than have owners like most of the clubs in England seem to have. As I said it will make little difference as to how much can be spent unless our turnover improves so why risk an owner like the noses have?

As for missing the point you suggested overspending as a way around FFP. If that isn't what you meant then you shouldn't have written it because I'm not a mind reader :)

The idea of getting around the rules isn't easy as ManC finding out, besides just because a club can get around it doesn't mean they should. If it's dodgy sooner or later someone will notice and the club caught out will be hammered, I wouldn't want that to be us.

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Makes no real difference if he sells or not any more. Club is self sufficient and still needs to make more money commercially before it can spend more than £15m a season more than it makes.

It's very black and white now and, more than it has been for a while, and unless a new owner could bring in new commercial backing they could do no more than randy

 

This.

 

A change of owners can't spend or do anymore than Lerner is currently doing, besides maybe this is a case of better the devil you know.

 

 

That argument was used in defense of Lambert. I'm not sure fear of the unknown should guide us.

 

As for not doing more than Lerner: Money talks. There are ways around FFP - paying the fee if you "overspend" is an obvious one.

 

Lambert was a crap football manager, that was the main problem with the club over the last two years

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Anyone have a feeling Lerner is not gonna sell now

 

All depends on the price, but sounds like he is not desperate to sell either. Same with the olbion, if Peace doesn't trouser 100 million (really?) then he isn't going to sell up either. I guess if we continue to be interesting and win games with big crowds coming back to Villa Park, potential new investors may start to think about us again-provided we stay up.

 

It's a better situation to be in, all round, like that.

Reason being, someone desperate to sell is more likely to sell to someone unsuitable, because of their desperation.

The most important factor is that whoever owns or buys a club looks after it properly and does everything they can to make the club be as good as it can be. There are and have some quite appalling owners - both foreign and local, and there have been some excellent owners, both local and foreign. More often than not, often they have taken over their clubs in situations where the previous owners have been desperate to sell.

When you have someone who is open to selling, in the right circumstances you are more likely (but far from guaranteed) to get a more dilligent appraisal by the seller of the new buyer.

It also seems like when the team was playing appallingly, the club was losing fortunes and everything was looking bleak, Randy Lerner was as disheartened with it all as we were.

Now we're playing entertaining, winning, football, we have a cup final to look forward to, the club is not losing money and there's (if we stay up) a lucrative TV deal, he's also much more enthused by it all, the same as we are.

In terms of longer term planning, a takeover would not be a good thing. When you've got a manager and CEO (presumably) looking at trying to renew player contracts, trying to identify who to buy and sell, what to do with sponsorship deals and all that stuff, you absolutely need stability and the knowledge that the plans you put in place for all those things can be followed through. What you don't want is a situation where you can't go ahead and do those things, because you need to wait for a possible new owner to give them an OK, and they won't do that until they are in charge.

 

If Randy Lerner has lost heart and lost the will to run the club, then he should sell. He's undoubtedly made a large number of bad choices and decisions in the past few years and the argument that we want someone who makes better decisions is a fair one. Equally, things now, whether by accident or design, or a mix of the two, are now actually set up reasonably well. Like I said, the club is financially stable, the team is playing well and supporters feel like "we've got our club back". Now we've got an owner who possibly has learnt some serious (and expensive) lessons, who has a CEO in place who is doing a reasonable job, a manager who has got the players playing, and the basis of a pretty good side, with the right age profile for the squad and a support that has got behind the team again, why would you want to change that? I'd suggest you'd only want to make the change if you were very sure that the change would definitely take things further forward than the current set up could do.

So in other words, you'd want RL to be certain that any new owners would do a great deal that would make the club better, not just get him him as much money as he can squeeze in terms of a price - which is what might be the case if he were desperate to sell..

 

Great post sums our current situation up in a nutshell.The key appointment was Fox obviously knows the score in the business/commercial world and a whole different individual to Faulkner,stay up which we should do and probably next season will see a revolution in the fortunes of our great club.Lerner has proved in the past that he is not afraid to spend a bob or 2,if it that has to occur again on the odd occasion hopefully the outlay will be more beneficial in terms of player recruitment that some of the mugs signed by O'Neill & Co.

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Anyone have a feeling Lerner is not gonna sell now

 

All depends on the price, but sounds like he is not desperate to sell either. Same with the olbion, if Peace doesn't trouser 100 million (really?) then he isn't going to sell up either. I guess if we continue to be interesting and win games with big crowds coming back to Villa Park, potential new investors may start to think about us again-provided we stay up.

 

It's a better situation to be in, all round, like that.

Reason being, someone desperate to sell is more likely to sell to someone unsuitable, because of their desperation.

The most important factor is that whoever owns or buys a club looks after it properly and does everything they can to make the club be as good as it can be. There are and have some quite appalling owners - both foreign and local, and there have been some excellent owners, both local and foreign. More often than not, often they have taken over their clubs in situations where the previous owners have been desperate to sell.

When you have someone who is open to selling, in the right circumstances you are more likely (but far from guaranteed) to get a more dilligent appraisal by the seller of the new buyer.

It also seems like when the team was playing appallingly, the club was losing fortunes and everything was looking bleak, Randy Lerner was as disheartened with it all as we were.

Now we're playing entertaining, winning, football, we have a cup final to look forward to, the club is not losing money and there's (if we stay up) a lucrative TV deal, he's also much more enthused by it all, the same as we are.

In terms of longer term planning, a takeover would not be a good thing. When you've got a manager and CEO (presumably) looking at trying to renew player contracts, trying to identify who to buy and sell, what to do with sponsorship deals and all that stuff, you absolutely need stability and the knowledge that the plans you put in place for all those things can be followed through. What you don't want is a situation where you can't go ahead and do those things, because you need to wait for a possible new owner to give them an OK, and they won't do that until they are in charge.

 

If Randy Lerner has lost heart and lost the will to run the club, then he should sell. He's undoubtedly made a large number of bad choices and decisions in the past few years and the argument that we want someone who makes better decisions is a fair one. Equally, things now, whether by accident or design, or a mix of the two, are now actually set up reasonably well. Like I said, the club is financially stable, the team is playing well and supporters feel like "we've got our club back". Now we've got an owner who possibly has learnt some serious (and expensive) lessons, who has a CEO in place who is doing a reasonable job, a manager who has got the players playing, and the basis of a pretty good side, with the right age profile for the squad and a support that has got behind the team again, why would you want to change that? I'd suggest you'd only want to make the change if you were very sure that the change would definitely take things further forward than the current set up could do.

So in other words, you'd want RL to be certain that any new owners would do a great deal that would make the club better, not just get him him as much money as he can squeeze in terms of a price - which is what might be the case if he were desperate to sell..

 

 

as per usual, excellently balanced post

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