Jump to content

2015 Takeover Thread


samjp26

Recommended Posts

Swansea, West Brom, Southampton, Stoke and Norwich all worth more? Can understand Crystal Palace and West Ham being that they are London based. Very strange. What makes Southamptom worth more than say Newcastle?

 

My guess on Southampton and Norwich is that their stadia may be in places where the land is worth a lot of money.  I've not been to St Marys but I know Carrow Road is pretty much in Narge city centre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Swansea, West Brom, Southampton, Stoke and Norwich all worth more? Can understand Crystal Palace and West Ham being that they are London based. Very strange. What makes Southamptom worth more than say Newcastle?

.

My guess on Southampton and Norwich is that their stadia may be in places where the land is worth a lot of money. I've not been to St Marys but I know Carrow Road is pretty much in Narge city centre.

The area around St Marys is a shit hole. Drugs, gangs, prostitution. It is a 10 min walk from the city centre though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Swansea, West Brom, Southampton, Stoke and Norwich all worth more? Can understand Crystal Palace and West Ham being that they are London based. Very strange. What makes Southamptom worth more than say Newcastle?

My guess on Southampton and Norwich is that their stadia may be in places where the land is worth a lot of money. I've not been to St Marys but I know Carrow Road is pretty much in Narge city centre.

My guess is that they largely made it up using their transfer tumbola of news and some new balls.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Table is clearly correct. When did the Mail ever print anything that wasn't 100% factually accurate ?

Utter twaddle.

One of the things I dislike most about this Age of Information is the absence of any means of ensuring I never read or see the enormous mass of inane and irrelevant cobblers that is as freely flowing as the bowel product of a week spent entirely in the Balti Triangle.

Edited by terrytini
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

That looks like someone has just made it up, though it is The Daily Mail

 

That list only exists in public because some Daily Mail hack is mates with Dr Tom Markham. He may have years of experience in reading about sports finance and a degree from the University of Reading in some bespoke football degree, but one glance at that list makes me think his algorithms are a crock of horse shit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

That looks like someone has just made it up, though it is The Daily Mail

 

That list only exists in public because some Daily Mail hack is mates with Dr Tom Markham. He may have years of experience in reading about sports finance and a degree from the University of Reading in some bespoke football degree, but one glance at that list makes me think his algorithms are a crock of horse shit.

 

The only accurate thing about that table is that there is a clear dividing line between the "Top 6" and the rest. Good luck breaking that £300m glass ceiling. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nonsense really, highly subjective and it's a snapshot that could / will change month to month.  

 

R.e. land values, good point, but in reality it's very difficult for a new owner to realise real estate assets, Man City and West Ham lucky to be gifted new stadiums on extremely generous terms, those deals don't happen very often....  Arsenal seem to have done well with their stadium move, Spurs may well make money when they move too, but it's not the norm.

 

Bournemouth may be worth 100m today purely on tv money revenue potential, but come Feb if they are rooted to the bottom of the league with relegation looking a certainty that valuation will likely halve...

 

Man City may be worth 900m to it's current owner, simply because the club is a vehicle for Abu Dhabi state interests and receives some very generous sponsorship and make use of many 'shared services' that would disappear under different ownership.  Certainly wouldn't have the same value or appeal to another more traditional Lerner type owner.

 

Stoke and Swansea are punching well above their weight and you'd have to think will struggle to increase revenue or raise their profiles beyond the extra tv money.  As an investor you'd be clinically insane to buy either at that sort of price, limited upside, massive downside if they have one bad season, and that's without factoring in both have been extremely well managed by the current owners, change the ownership / business management and they could fall apart quickly.  West Brom in the same basket, extremely well managed but seem to have 'peaked' so to speak.

 

I guess Southampton have benefited from some significant player sales over the past few years, and seem to have an excellent academy, but there's no guarantee they will produce a Shaw, Chambers, or Bale type player every season.

 

Spurs worth 700m wtf, maybe in Levy's mind...

 

If this were real, Villa look like a real bargain and far and away the best 'investment' potential of the bunch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nonsense really, highly subjective and it's a snapshot that could / will change month to month.  

 

R.e. land values, good point, but in reality it's very difficult for a new owner to realise real estate assets, Man City and West Ham lucky to be gifted new stadiums on extremely generous terms, those deals don't happen very often....  Arsenal seem to have done well with their stadium move, Spurs may well make money when they move too, but it's not the norm.

 

Bournemouth may be worth 100m today purely on tv money revenue potential, but come Feb if they are rooted to the bottom of the league with relegation looking a certainty that valuation will likely halve...

 

Man City may be worth 900m to it's current owner, simply because the club is a vehicle for Abu Dhabi state interests and receives some very generous sponsorship and make use of many 'shared services' that would disappear under different ownership.  Certainly wouldn't have the same value or appeal to another more traditional Lerner type owner.

 

Stoke and Swansea are punching well above their weight and you'd have to think will struggle to increase revenue or raise their profiles beyond the extra tv money.  As an investor you'd be clinically insane to buy either at that sort of price, limited upside, massive downside if they have one bad season, and that's without factoring in both have been extremely well managed by the current owners, change the ownership / business management and they could fall apart quickly.  West Brom in the same basket, extremely well managed but seem to have 'peaked' so to speak.

 

I guess Southampton have benefited from some significant player sales over the past few years, and seem to have an excellent academy, but there's no guarantee they will produce a Shaw, Chambers, or Bale type player every season.

 

Spurs worth 700m wtf, maybe in Levy's mind...

 

If this were real, Villa look like a real bargain and far and away the best 'investment' potential of the bunch.

I would agree with that if you look at the table and believe it as there is so much upside. The interesting alternative view is that Lerner is apparently struggling to sell the club at that valuation so maybe its not worth that? If that is the base with the exception of the top four plus Liverpool all the valuations are way too high. £100m for Bournemouth is laughable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I guess we'll likely never know if Lerner is really struggling to sell or simply holding out for a buyer that he believes will be a good custodian for the club and take us forward sustainably (which I hope is the case).

 

Probably more telling is the fact the deal to sell West Brom fell through, which appeared to be closer than Lerner has come to selling...  Peace is a pretty smart guy from a finance background, it looks like he senses this is the top of market and wants to cash out, but couldn't make that deal work or thought it was too dangerous for the club.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...
Â