leviramsey Posted April 23, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 23, 2014 Am i the only one who can see Sunderland picking up at least 6 points from their remaining 3 home fixtures? Ignoring the possibility of us catching a club above us, we go down if three of Sunderland, Cardiff, Fulham, Norwich, and West Brom overtake us. Sunderland getting six from those fixtures dramatically reduces the chances of Cardiff catching us and doesn't help West Brom, so it may actually be the case that Sunderland wins increase our chances of staying up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enda Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Am i the only one who can see Sunderland picking up at least 6 points from their remaining 3 home fixtures? Could see it happening, but then that makes it very difficult for Cardiff to catch us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post srsmithusa Posted April 23, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted April 23, 2014 I just had a great idea! Since two wins makes us mathematically safe, let's just win the next two! Simples! Can we close the thread now? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted April 23, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 23, 2014 I just had a great idea! Since two wins makes us mathematically safe, let's just win the next two!Simples!Can we close the thread now?I don't believe 2 wins actually makes us mathematically safe (it's still possible to go down on goal difference at 41 points):Sunderland win out (v Cardiff, @ Man Utd, v WBA, v Swansea) to go to 41 points and a goal difference no worse than -20Cardiff lose out (@ Sunderland, @ Newcastle, v Chelsea) to stay on 30 points and a goal difference no better than -37Fulham lose out (v Hull, @ Stoke, v Palace) to stay on 30 points and a goal difference no better than -45Norwich win out (@ Man Utd, @ Chelsea, v Arsenal) to get to 41 points and a goal difference no worse than -25WBA win 3 and lose 1 (lose @ Sunderland, win v West Ham, @ Arsenal, v Stoke) to get to 42 points and safetyVilla win 2 and lose 2 (wins @ Spurs, v Hull, losses @ Swansea, @ City) to get to 41 pointsHull win 2 and lose 2 (wins @ Fulham, @ Man Utd, losses @ Villa, v Everton) to get to 42 points and safetySwansea win 2, lose 1 (wins v Villa, v Southampton, losses @ Sunderland) to get to 42 points and safetyWest Ham win 1, lose 1, draw 1 (win v Spurs, lose @ WBA, draw @ Man City) to get to 41 pointsA logjam at 41 pts results:Sunderland (goal difference of -20 at worst)Norwich (goal difference of -25 at worst)Villa (any goal difference is possible... we can get to -26 if we beat Spurs and Hull by 1 goal apiece while losing to Swansea and Man City by an aggregate of 14)West Ham (any goal difference is possible)(I do believe wins vs. Swansea and Hull would make it impossible for a club on 41 points to be relegated, though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaForever1970 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Norwich were actually pretty good against Liverpool, they won’t lose all their ‘hard’ fixtures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Norwich were actually pretty good against Liverpool, they won’t lose all their ‘hard’ fixtures. I can see them getting something too, but they essentially need a win and a draw in their last 3 fixtures to overtake us, and that's assuming we don't pick up anymore points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Despite how 'good' Norwich looked against Liverpool, they play two of their last three games away from home. They have lost 8 on the spin on the road and haven't won an away game since the start of December. They'll then play Arsenal on the last day who, I'm hoping, will need something to confirm fourth place. I'd say Norwich are goners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chappy Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Cardiff, Fulham and the baggies for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 (edited) points in our favour You generally finish the season where you have spent most of it - sudden spurts up the table do happen sometimes - but I think that general rule is good one... Points against We don't look like scoring...at all ...I can see us getting no more than 3 goals in the total of the remaining games.... Cardiff, Fulham, Sunderland / Norwich for me. Edited April 23, 2014 by smetrov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 (edited) I'll update this post after every game. Points needed by us/dropped by opposition to stay above them, mathematically. Any points Villa get in a match decreases the total by that amount (So win 3, draw 1, loss 0) and any points the mentioned team drops in a game will decrease the total by that amount (So win 0, draw 2, loss 3). West Brom - 11 points Norwich - 7 Cardiff - 5 Fulham - 5 Sunderland - 7 We have at least a 10 goal better difference than all clubs mentioned except for West Brom, so realistically you can decrease their totals by 1. Meaningful games this weekend. Fulham - Hull West Brom - West Ham Swansea - Villa Man U - Norwich Sunderland - Cardiff Edited April 23, 2014 by kurtsimonw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Cardiff, Fulham and the baggies for me To me it will be, Norwich, Fulham and Sunderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Sunderland Cardiff is a massive match. Lets hope its a draw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa-revolution Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Sunderland Cardiff is a massive match. Lets hope its a draw. 0-0 would be perfect & we could send the DVD to Big 'Eck & Howard Wilkinson to drool over on their perfect night out/in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Villa, Cardiff, Sunderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GENTLEMAN Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Villa, Cardiff, Sunderland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 If we go down Norwich will almost certainly be one of the teams going down with us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggy_333 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Villa, Cardiff, Sunderland. You honestly hand on heart think we're going to go down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 If Cardiff can beat Sunderland then Sunderland will need to at least get a point at old trafford to catch us. That would leave Cardiff only three points behind us with Newcastle and Chelsea to play. We know Newcastle have been on bad form at St jame's but their form must improve at some point. They might fancy their chances at home to Chelsea though if Chelsea have nothing to play for, so maybe a draw would be the best result after all. The Fulham v Hull is a big match for us because If Hull can get the win they'll be pretty much safe and all set to concentrate on the FA cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The important thing is to try and win one of our remaining games and not worry about other teams. We could go down if we fail to pick up any more points, we may not. the key thing is to worry about us. Nobody else...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan-scott Posted April 23, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted April 23, 2014 Would take a lot for us to go down as there are still a few teams below us that are more likely to finish in the bottom 3 than us. Norwich are in awful form and have an awful run in and Baggies are no better, along with the current incumbents of the bottom 3. Would take a huge swing and for us to not gain another point, which in my opinion is very unlikely. We will stay up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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