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The R word


villanwesty88

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Am i the only one who can see Sunderland picking up at least 6 points from their remaining 3 home fixtures?

Ignoring the possibility of us catching a club above us, we go down if three of Sunderland, Cardiff, Fulham, Norwich, and West Brom overtake us.

Sunderland getting six from those fixtures dramatically reduces the chances of Cardiff catching us and doesn't help West Brom, so it may actually be the case that Sunderland wins increase our chances of staying up.

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Am i the only one who can see Sunderland picking up at least 6 points from their remaining 3 home fixtures?

 

Could see it happening, but then that makes it very difficult for Cardiff to catch us.

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I just had a great idea! Since two wins makes us mathematically safe, let's just win the next two!

Simples!

Can we close the thread now?

I don't believe 2 wins actually makes us mathematically safe (it's still possible to go down on goal difference at 41 points):

Sunderland win out (v Cardiff, @ Man Utd, v WBA, v Swansea) to go to 41 points and a goal difference no worse than -20

Cardiff lose out (@ Sunderland, @ Newcastle, v Chelsea) to stay on 30 points and a goal difference no better than -37

Fulham lose out (v Hull, @ Stoke, v Palace) to stay on 30 points and a goal difference no better than -45

Norwich win out (@ Man Utd, @ Chelsea, v Arsenal) to get to 41 points and a goal difference no worse than -25

WBA win 3 and lose 1 (lose @ Sunderland, win v West Ham, @ Arsenal, v Stoke) to get to 42 points and safety

Villa win 2 and lose 2 (wins @ Spurs, v Hull, losses @ Swansea, @ City) to get to 41 points

Hull win 2 and lose 2 (wins @ Fulham, @ Man Utd, losses @ Villa, v Everton) to get to 42 points and safety

Swansea win 2, lose 1 (wins v Villa, v Southampton, losses @ Sunderland) to get to 42 points and safety

West Ham win 1, lose 1, draw 1 (win v Spurs, lose @ WBA, draw @ Man City) to get to 41 points

A logjam at 41 pts results:

Sunderland (goal difference of -20 at worst)

Norwich (goal difference of -25 at worst)

Villa (any goal difference is possible... we can get to -26 if we beat Spurs and Hull by 1 goal apiece while losing to Swansea and Man City by an aggregate of 14)

West Ham (any goal difference is possible)

(I do believe wins vs. Swansea and Hull would make it impossible for a club on 41 points to be relegated, though)

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Norwich were actually pretty good against Liverpool, they won’t lose all their ‘hard’ fixtures.

I can see them getting something too, but they essentially need a win and a draw in their last 3 fixtures to overtake us, and that's assuming we don't pick up anymore points.

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Despite how 'good' Norwich looked against Liverpool, they play two of their last three games away from home.

They have lost 8 on the spin on the road and haven't won an away game since the start of December.

They'll then play Arsenal on the last day who, I'm hoping, will need something to confirm fourth place.

I'd say Norwich are goners.

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points in our favour

 

You generally finish the season where you have spent most of it - sudden spurts up the table do happen sometimes - but I think that general rule is good one...

 

Points against

 

We don't look like scoring...at all ...I can see us getting no more than 3 goals in the total of the remaining games....

 

Cardiff, Fulham, Sunderland / Norwich for me.

Edited by smetrov
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I'll update this post after every game.

 

Points needed by us/dropped by opposition to stay above them, mathematically. Any points Villa get in a match decreases the total by that amount (So win 3, draw 1, loss 0) and any points the mentioned team drops in a game will decrease the total by that amount (So win 0, draw 2, loss 3).

 

West Brom - 11 points

Norwich - 7 

Cardiff - 5 

Fulham - 5

Sunderland - 7

 

We have at least a 10 goal better difference than all clubs mentioned except for West Brom, so realistically you can decrease their totals by 1. 

 

Meaningful games this weekend.

 

Fulham - Hull

West Brom - West Ham

Swansea - Villa

Man U - Norwich

Sunderland - Cardiff

Edited by kurtsimonw
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If Cardiff can beat Sunderland then Sunderland will need to at least get a point at old trafford to catch us. That would leave Cardiff only three points behind us with Newcastle and Chelsea to play. We know Newcastle have been on bad form at St jame's but their form must improve at some point. They might fancy their chances at home to Chelsea though if Chelsea have nothing to play for, so maybe a draw would be the best result after all.

 

The Fulham v Hull is a big match for us because If Hull can get the win they'll be pretty much safe and all set to concentrate on the FA cup.

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Would take a lot for us to go down as there are still a few teams below us that are more likely to finish in the bottom 3 than us. Norwich are in awful form and have an awful run in and Baggies are no better, along with the current incumbents of the bottom 3. Would take a huge swing and for us to not gain another point, which in my opinion is very unlikely.

We will stay up!

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