Big_John_10 Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Houlston how can you have a Wigan ticket already ? They go on sale tomorrow or are you behind enemy lines ? I was thinking the same. Didn't think they'd gone on sale yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlston Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 (edited) Norwich, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle are very much still in this. There is a good chance one of those teams wont win again this season. Tomorrow is a nothing game. Its looking likely it will come down to the last game of the season, I already have my ticket and I cant wait. I just don't believe we will go down. There is a chance - but not a good chance I disagree. Stoke will be looking to their next home game for that win, but if they don't get it after that its tough. Newcastle's fixtures are very tough, they will be looking at QPR away as their win. Norwich will be looking at their home games but they have only won 1 in their last 6 and that was against Reading. Sunderland, well lets see how they get on against us but they certainly have upped their game. Wigan have a hard run in that includes a cup final to think about. Add to that a lot of these teams have to play each other. A week tomorrow night and the table could look a whole lot different, I see us pulling level with that pack and Wigan still on 31. Houlston how can you have a Wigan ticket already ? They go on sale tomorrow or are you behind enemy lines ? Exec travel Edited April 21, 2013 by Houlston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Problem is, all of a sudden our home game v Sunderland no longer looks winnable . I think we will possibly lose or may scrape a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Exec travel what ? Does that guarantee a ticket even if you are not a ST with +5 aways under your belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlston Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Exec travel what ? Does that guarantee a ticket even if you are not a ST with +5 aways under your belt. DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season? All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures. Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts. - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe. Yes, but they don't have 40 points yet do they. Yes they are very close but you are again assuming that these teams can all pick up those 2-3 extra points that they need when in reality they are struggling for points just as much as us. Apart from Sunderland, All the other teams mentioned had games that we would have looked at as winnable, as did they. They will eventually have a round of fixtures where points don't seem possible for them, likes our this week. No they don't have 40 points - and they could loose every game between now and the end of the season and get relegated. However that is highly unlikely - would you not agree ? They are not struggling for points 'just as much as us' - they have 3 more - a mere 3 pts - but massive at this stage of the season. I think you making the classic mistake of assuming(hoping) everyone else s points total remains static - whilst ours creeps up Yes it may be highly unlikely that they lose every game, but it isn't highly unlikely that they could lose a couple and maybe only draw one or two. I am not assuming at all that others totals will stay the same. What i'm saying is there could easily be the reverse of this week where we win our games and other teams lose, putting us right back on their tails. Struggling to pick up points just as much as us, in fact don't Stoke and Norwich have among the lowest point accumulations since the start of the calender year? These teams are highly unlikely to go on a run of games where they pick up points in all of them. Again I disagree - Stoke have good players playing poorly (they will improve at some point) - Norwich have 38 pts - and may only need one more. We have yielded 1pt - from 2 home games - ( which we were ahead in both) - And don't forget assuming we loose at OT on Monday - We will have played a game more........that would leave us 4 games close a 4 pt gap on Norwich ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexbelowsound Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 (edited) Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season? All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures. Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts. - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe. Yes, but they don't have 40 points yet do they. Yes they are very close but you are again assuming that these teams can all pick up those 2-3 extra points that they need when in reality they are struggling for points just as much as us. Apart from Sunderland, All the other teams mentioned had games that we would have looked at as winnable, as did they. They will eventually have a round of fixtures where points don't seem possible for them, likes our this week. No they don't have 40 points - and they could loose every game between now and the end of the season and get relegated. However that is highly unlikely - would you not agree ? They are not struggling for points 'just as much as us' - they have 3 more - a mere 3 pts - but massive at this stage of the season. I think you making the classic mistake of assuming(hoping) everyone else s points total remains static - whilst ours creeps up Yes it may be highly unlikely that they lose every game, but it isn't highly unlikely that they could lose a couple and maybe only draw one or two. I am not assuming at all that others totals will stay the same. What i'm saying is there could easily be the reverse of this week where we win our games and other teams lose, putting us right back on their tails. Struggling to pick up points just as much as us, in fact don't Stoke and Norwich have among the lowest point accumulations since the start of the calender year? These teams are highly unlikely to go on a run of games where they pick up points in all of them. Again I disagree - Stoke have good players playing poorly (they will improve at some point) - Norwich have 38 pts - and may only need one more. We have yielded 1pt - from 2 home games - ( which we were ahead in both) - And don't forget assuming we loose at OT on Monday - We will have played a game more........that would leave us 4 games close a 4 pt gap on Norwich ? Stoke beat one of the most pathetic teams in Premier League history. We lost at home to Liverpool and drew against Fulham. Those games aren't comparable IMO. And we have to play Norwich, we beat them then its only one point. Edited April 21, 2013 by sexbelowsound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 I think we will pick up 4 more points. Don't know where from though. (Obviously). 38 points will do it, Wigan will go down on 35/36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 I think we will pick up 4 more points. Don't know where from though. (Obviously). 38 points will do it, Wigan will go down on 35/36. Yep - I see us on 38 as well - not so sure if that will be enough though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 You can get a staggering 25-1 on Norwich, Sunderland or stoke being relegated - actually you can get 28-1 on stoke - makes you realize just how unlikely that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 The strange thing about this run in is that we could beat both Sunderland and Norwich and go to Wigan on 40 points. Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke and Newcastle could all get to the same or more. Wigan could beat the Baggies and Swansea and then beat us last day of the season and we go down on goal difference. Let's face it, our defensive record, if anything, is going to be the thing that costs us our Premier League status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 The strange thing about this run in is that we could beat both Sunderland and Norwich and go to Wigan on 40 points. Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke and Newcastle could all get to the same or more. Wigan could beat the Baggies and Swansea and then beat us last day of the season and we go down on goal difference. Let's face it, our defensive record, if anything, is going to be the thing that costs us our Premier League status. More precisely our inability to hold a lead - that will hamper us getting the points we need. We held on for a paltry 10 minutes against fulham - who really had nothing to play for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherland Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 I got us down on 36 points going into the wigan game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 (edited) Problem is, all of a sudden our home game v Sunderland no longer looks winnable . I think we will possibly lose or may scrape a point. You blow with the wind, eh. If we lose against Man U, you'll be saying how you can't see how we'll win another game. How about having a bit of faith that we have picked up form. Sunderland are not unbeatable. Edited April 21, 2013 by praisedmambo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Actually **** this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 It will be us or Wigan to go down with the match at their place on the last day being the decider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Well done to anyone whose predictions end up being correct, but despite all the posts which read like they are fact, all I see is dozens of guesses. The reason why the group immediately above us are currently around 25-1 to be relegated is because the chances of both us AND Wigan getting, for example, 6 and 9 points whilst they fail to get 2 or 3 points, is unlikely. I don't see the point in stating why we might/will go down, such as not holding on to leads. A loss is a loss, whether you score first or not and if every draw this season was achieved by scoring last instead of first, would we have any more points? If the statement is we'd have more points if we had won or drawn more matches (by holding on to a lead or whatever), well yes, that's 'bleedin' obvious'! If we stay up, we will have deserved it by gaining enough points. If we go down, we will have deserved it by not gaining enough points. How, why, where and when is either obvious or academic. Whether you're in the doom and gloom camp or someone who has belief we will be okay, I hope you'll all be willing us to succeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mockingbird_franklin Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 This weekend has been a pretty car crash one, with the exception of the Wigan result, at a stretch you could say possibly Newcastle (but I think they will have enough). we couldn't have had a worst set of results. I guess it makes The Wigan game the likely decider. Can't see us getting 4 points clear of them before that game, best I think we can hope for is to be above them on the day, hence needing a draw, was really hoping at least one other team would continue to slide for just a few weeks more, but it just seems fate that Wigan v Villa will be billed as do or die. I've run through a few predictions, some see us staying up with 37, another relegated with 40 on goal difference. It really is just going be down to one result here or there, lets hope Wigan used up all their luck in the win at Newcastle and the draw at QPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 (edited) I've run through a few predictions, some see us staying up with 37, another relegated with 40 on goal difference. Me too! I came to the conclusion that the prediction process is, as I hope our run in is not - pointless! Edited April 21, 2013 by brommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherland Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Problem is, all of a sudden our home game v Sunderland no longer looks winnable . I think we will possibly lose or may scrape a point. You blow with the wind, eh. If we lose against Man U, you'll be saying how you can't see how we'll win another game. How about having a bit of faith that we have picked up form. Sunderland are not unbeatable. I see what he means, If we come out of this like another chelsea game i cant see us recovering all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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