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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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As mentioned above take it game by game.  We are 3 ahead of Wigan now, on the same games, on a very similar goal difference.  Lets just not get hammered by Utd.

 

Below are the games in schedule order.  Presuming us and Wigan lose our next game, if we beat Sunderland we then go 6 ahead of Wigan as they enter a schedule of 4 fixtures in 15 games.  Their squad just isnt that big and 6 points is a massive gap.

 

Utd V Villa

Wigan V Spurs

Villa V Sunderland

NC V Villa / WBA V Wigan

Wigan V Swansea (4 days before cup Final)

Villa V CFC (Wigan in Cup Final)

Arsenal V Wigan (3 days after cup final)

 

Wigan V Villa

 

 

Personally I see us getting a a draw v Sunderland, a win at Norwich and a draw home to Chelsea (last home game of the season, Chelsea have Spurs and Utd leading to this game).

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Game by game lads.

Totally correct! This thing is changing for the good and bad from weekend to weekend so there's just no telling who will do what. All I know is that I don't want us to go gung-ho at Old Trafford in the way we did at Stamford Bridge. Our goal difference is not too far off Wigan's and Norwich's now so we need to try to keep it that way.

I just hope this doesn't go to the last game!

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It seems that is it really just down to us and wigan. Sunderland, Newcastle and Stoke picked up points this weekend which is not good for us. Norwich and Southampton are pretty much clear at this point unless them really mess it up in the remaining matches.

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Wigan will surely prioritise the PL over a final they have no chance in

They are already guaranteed Europa League next season. It's going to be easier for them to compete in that if they have a 38 game league season than it is if they have a 46 game season. I agree with you CI, I think staying up is priority for them.

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It's going to come to the last game of the season, so obvious. We are going to need to win that to guarantee it, lose it and we are down. I think we are down

Then why have such faith in Lambert?

If he can't keep us up by getting something at Wigan then why have such a strong belief that he's the right man for this club.

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Just watched the Wigan game.....I cant believe how lucky West Ham were. Its bits of luck like that that change seasons.

 

A very unlikely point in Manchester could be massive, as much for our goal difference as points on the table.

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Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season?

 

All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. 

 

The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures.

 

Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts.  - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe.

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Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season?

 

All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. 

 

The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures.

 

Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts.  - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe.

 

 

Yes, but they don't have 40 points yet do they. Yes they are very close but you are again assuming that these teams can all pick up those 2-3 extra points that they need when in reality they are struggling for points just as much as us. 

 

Apart from Sunderland, All the other teams mentioned had games that we would have looked at as winnable, as did they. They will eventually have a round of fixtures where points don't seem possible for them, likes our this week.

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Wigan will surely prioritise the PL over a final they have no chance in

 

The manager might? who says the players will? Chance at an FA Cup winners medal or a chance at another season with Wigan in the Premier League? I'm thinking a winners medal and a transfer request when relegated will be what the majority of those mercenaries are thinking.

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It's going to come to the last game of the season, so obvious. We are going to need to win that to guarantee it, lose it and we are down. I think we are down

Then why have such faith in Lambert?

If he can't keep us up by getting something at Wigan then why have such a strong belief that he's the right man for this club.

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Norwich, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle are very much still in this. There is a good chance one of those teams wont win again this season.

 

Tomorrow is a nothing game.

 

Its looking likely it will come down to the last game of the season, I already have my ticket and I cant wait. I just don't believe we will go down.

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Wigan will surely prioritise the PL over a final they have no chance in

 

The manager might? who says the players will? Chance at an FA Cup winners medal or a chance at another season with Wigan in the Premier League? I'm thinking a winners medal and a transfer request when relegated will be what the majority of those mercenaries are thinking.

 

This is very true, if I was a Wigan player I'd want to play in a cup final. These things don't happen every year a transfer can.

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Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season?

 

All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. 

 

The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures.

 

Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts.  - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe.

 

 

Yes, but they don't have 40 points yet do they. Yes they are very close but you are again assuming that these teams can all pick up those 2-3 extra points that they need when in reality they are struggling for points just as much as us. 

 

Apart from Sunderland, All the other teams mentioned had games that we would have looked at as winnable, as did they. They will eventually have a round of fixtures where points don't seem possible for them, likes our this week.

 

 

No they don't have 40 points - and they could loose every game between now and the end of the season and get relegated. However that is highly unlikely - would you not agree ?

 

They are not struggling for points 'just as much as us' - they have 3 more - a mere 3 pts - but massive at this stage of the season. I think you making the classic mistake of assuming(hoping) everyone else s points total remains static - whilst ours creeps up

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Norwich, Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle are very much still in this. There is a good chance one of those teams wont win again this season.

 

Tomorrow is a nothing game.

 

Its looking likely it will come down to the last game of the season, I already have my ticket and I cant wait. I just don't believe we will go down.

 

 

There is a chance - but not a good chance

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Tough weekend Sunderland I thought might get a draw ,Norwich too but QPR really threw in the towel against Stoke.How Stoke perform in next game will tell us alot can they regain some form or was QPR just a blip.

 

Wigan losing was a big help especially as they again played well without scoring that will be on their minds now.Anything against United tommorrow would be massive 1 point could make all the difference

 

It is really one game at a time now predicting results is going to be very tricky..

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Sensibly - the two favorites for relegation (us and wigan) meet on the last day of the season - we have both been in and around the drop zone for most of the season. I wonder what the odds would be on that game being meaningless for both clubs ? - Pretty long I would imagine

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I do feat Wigan beating Swansea and also an Albion side with nothing to play for, Albion fans will almost be willing Wigan on because of what it could mean for us. I'm hoping they dont pick up any bonus points out of Spurs and Arsenal, that would leave them on 37 going into their game with us.

We need to focus on getting at least 4 points from Sunderland/Norwich. Maybe a bonus point in one of the other games, but I see best case scenario for us as being on 38-40 points going into the last game.

Realistically we are highly like to need at least a point at Wigan to survive. Lets hope we have the bottle.

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Am I missing something here? How are all these other teams that won today suddenly out of it? Is there only one game left of the season?

 

All those teams, including ourselves are where we are because we have been fragile all season. Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich picking up points today doesn't mean they will continue to pick up points for the rest of the season. Newcastle are still stuttering and just as they look like they might pull away they get dragged back in again. These teams haven't suddenly rid themselves of all their problems, not by a long shot. 

 

The 3 point gap that Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle now have could quite easily be overturned during the next round of fixtures.

 

Because they are now on 37 or 38 points - meaning at the very most they need one victory to reach 40 pts.  - (The teams below them don't win that many games) - mathematically they are not safe - however experience of past seasons and laws of probability they are safe.

 

 

Yes, but they don't have 40 points yet do they. Yes they are very close but you are again assuming that these teams can all pick up those 2-3 extra points that they need when in reality they are struggling for points just as much as us. 

 

Apart from Sunderland, All the other teams mentioned had games that we would have looked at as winnable, as did they. They will eventually have a round of fixtures where points don't seem possible for them, likes our this week.

 

 

No they don't have 40 points - and they could loose every game between now and the end of the season and get relegated. However that is highly unlikely - would you not agree ?

 

They are not struggling for points 'just as much as us' - they have 3 more - a mere 3 pts - but massive at this stage of the season. I think you making the classic mistake of assuming(hoping) everyone else s points total remains static - whilst ours creeps up

 

 

Yes it may be highly unlikely that they lose every game, but it isn't highly unlikely that they could lose a couple and maybe only draw one or two. I am not assuming at all that others totals will stay the same. What i'm saying is there could easily be the reverse of this week where we win our games and other teams lose, putting us right back on their tails.

 

Struggling to pick up points just as much as us, in fact don't Stoke and Norwich have among the lowest point accumulations since the start of the calender year? These teams are highly unlikely to go on a run of games where they pick up points in all of them.

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