Relegation

[smetrov]

 

 

are you shocked we are where we are? since the day mon/RL 5 YEAR plan popped we have slowly been deflating as as club regarding players/attendances etc. the simple fact is..if RL wanted ASTON VILLA to be a top 6 club he could. 

 

If we stay up..what about next year? when will we get back on track.its a joke how we are now.

 

This ^^^^^^^ 100x times over 

 

Much as I want us to stay up, the scenario that we escape relegation by the skin of our teeth this time - but are much improved next season - wots it based on ? - The idea that our players take a 2 month break, then come back significantly better players ? - Im not buying it.

 

I can see no solid evidence that next season would be that much better than this - Our chairman has probably been to 5 games this season - hardly seems like he has the enthusiasism  to loosen the purse strings to any great degree 

 

So whilst I want us to stay up - until we have a chairman who shows some degree of interest - I fear we will continue to flounder..............................in whatever division...

 

 

I do as we have improved as the season has gone along. Before the West Ham home game I thought we had very little chance of staying up, now we have a slightly better than even chance but I don't feel confident at all. Sunderland is going to be the most nervous game so far this season. If we win we will be in a good position, a draw doesn't help us that much, unless Wigan loose to Spurs and a defeat I don't want to think about.

 

 

There has been improvement - since say Everton away - however the ability to defend a lead - is still as bad as ever - against liverpool + fulham we held the lead for under 15 minutes - stoke was an execption where we held on for 60 minutes. 

 

But in general unless we are playing utter dross teams - when the other teams needs to score.....they can.....I don't see much improvement in that area - nor will a summer break for Bennett & co alter this significantly for next season.

[Stevo985]

Gervinho, although not a favourite player of mine, is much better than any of our midfielders, sadly!

 

 

But he's not a midfielder. He's a forward. And I'd argue we've got at least two forwards (benteke and Weimann) who are better then Gervinho.

 

Not that it matters, if he played for us he'd play every week. I'm just saying.

[ozvillafan]

 

 

There has been improvement - since say Everton away - however the ability to defend a lead - is still as bad as ever - against liverpool + fulham we held the lead for under 15 minutes - stoke was an execption where we held on for 60 minutes. 

 

But in general unless we are playing utter dross teams - when the other teams needs to score.....they can.....I don't see much improvement in that area - nor will a summer break for Bennett & co alter this significantly for next season.

 

 

There are other factors that would point towards a better performance next season:

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

- New faces in the transfer window

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

[smetrov]

 

 

 

There has been improvement - since say Everton away - however the ability to defend a lead - is still as bad as ever - against liverpool + fulham we held the lead for under 15 minutes - stoke was an execption where we held on for 60 minutes. 

 

But in general unless we are playing utter dross teams - when the other teams needs to score.....they can.....I don't see much improvement in that area - nor will a summer break for Bennett & co alter this significantly for next season.

 

 

There are other factors that would point towards a better performance next season:

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

- New faces in the transfer window

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

 

 

Yes - but the two things that have hampered us this season remain:-

 

- A chairman - who isn't really that interested

- A Manager with a track record of leaky defences 

[briny_ear]

 

 

 

There has been improvement - since say Everton away - however the ability to defend a lead - is still as bad as ever - against liverpool + fulham we held the lead for under 15 minutes - stoke was an execption where we held on for 60 minutes. 

 

But in general unless we are playing utter dross teams - when the other teams needs to score.....they can.....I don't see much improvement in that area - nor will a summer break for Bennett & co alter this significantly for next season.

 

 

There are other factors that would point towards a better performance next season:

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

- New faces in the transfer window

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

 

Fundamental point: We have four games left this season, a summer break and a short pre-season before next season's matches start up again so, in terms of our current squad, what you have now in terms of experience and performance is basically what we will start next season with.

 

So...

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

He won't know them much better next season than he does now and he still seems to make basic errors of tactics and selection

 

 

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

See "Fundamental point" above.

 

- New faces in the transfer window

This is pure speculation and can't be used as an argument that the current squad will improve. It depends who is bought and who leaves (Benteke, Weimann, Lowton, Westwood?)

 

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

No idea what this means. If by "deadwood" you mean players who are currently on the books but not playing, their departure will have little impact on our performance, will it? If you are speculating it will free up resources for new players, see point above. 

[abdulaziz1]

Maaan .. Looking at the fixtures ! I think we need to support the Baggies and Spurs till the end of the season !

 

Spurs have 4 games against relegation teams .. While Baggies have 3 !

[Woodytom]

I think Norwich could still be a team to watch. 

 

they lose to Stoke (a) next week - quite plausible. Even if we lose to Sunderland, we go to Norwich next. Beat them, we would be on 37 and them 38 with 2 games remaining. Providing of course Wigan pick up points, they are not out of it. At 28/1, might be worth a dabble.

 

But are Wigan going to get at least 8 points from 5 games?

Edited April 24, 2013 by Woodytom

[VillaCas]

 

We are seventeenth. We have been at the lower end of the table for most of the season and we are currently fighting a relegation battle. Last season we also were threatened with relegation. What exactly have i made up and this progression you speak of, does it actually show in league position and points compared to last year?

 

Are you still going to be spouting this rubbish if we are relegated?

 

Your constant tactic is to ignore the point posters make and reply to a fantasy point that only exists in your own mind

 

Let me be clear - I'm not claiming that we are Bayern Munich and that we are taking the football world by storm, I am merely pointing out that, whilst last season we started off averagely and gradually declined, getting worse as the season progressed. This season, we have started poorly and gradually improved.

 

Improvement does not mean that we get relentlessly better week by week - it means that the general trend is upwards. Obviously we had an appalling Christmas period, but even taking that into account the trend is very very clearly upwards

 

We are of course still 17th - that is because we started so badly (intially carrying on the trend from last season). Form for 2013 is mid-table and shows obvious progression.

 

Who would you rather have playing the last four games of the season - McL's declining squad from last year or PL's current improving squad - I know which one I'd choose

Edited April 24, 2013 by VillaCas

[abdulaziz1]

 

 

 

 

There has been improvement - since say Everton away - however the ability to defend a lead - is still as bad as ever - against liverpool + fulham we held the lead for under 15 minutes - stoke was an execption where we held on for 60 minutes. 

 

But in general unless we are playing utter dross teams - when the other teams needs to score.....they can.....I don't see much improvement in that area - nor will a summer break for Bennett & co alter this significantly for next season.

 

 

There are other factors that would point towards a better performance next season:

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

- New faces in the transfer window

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

 

Fundamental point: We have four games left this season, a summer break and a short pre-season before next season's matches start up again so, in terms of our current squad, what you have now in terms of experience and performance is basically what we will start next season with.

 

So...

 

- Lambert knows his squad better

He won't know them much better next season than he does now and he still seems to make basic errors of tactics and selection

 

 

- Foreign players have (hopefully) settled in

- The younger players have experience in the PL

See "Fundamental point" above.

 

- New faces in the transfer window

This is pure speculation and can't be used as an argument that the current squad will improve. It depends who is bought and who leaves (Benteke, Weimann, Lowton, Westwood?)

 

- Departing deadwood providing some better options

No idea what this means. If by "deadwood" you mean players who are currently on the books but not playing, their departure will have little impact on our performance, will it? If you are speculating it will free up resources for new players, see point above. 

 

 

-Fundamental point: We have four games left this season, a summer break and a short pre-season before next season's matches start up again so, in terms of our current squad, what you have now in terms of experience and performance is basically what we will start next season with.

 

Well .. I think with what we're having now .. We could do something ! We're playing good and getting some results .. and put in mind that we're in the relegation battle so it's somehow usual that the confidence of players wouldn't be high .. And having mistake every game makes it worse and worse ..

 

+ It's not just about experience .. Dortmund had their league 2 time in sequence without experience !

 

We had the 2nd oldest team last year yet we did mistakes and conceded from set pieces .. The year before with Downing and Young wasn't that far too !

 

 

This is pure speculation and can't be used as an argument that the current squad will improve. It depends who is bought and who leaves (Benteke, Weimann, Lowton, Westwood?)

 

If we could let those four who you said stay + Guzan .. And try to have a solid DM , CB and a winger .. I think we could have a great season .. I would like to see also a good playmaker ..

 

What makes me feel happy is that Lambert a manager who you could trust in bringing players .. Even if they weren't that good .. Atleast it will not put you in a bad financial situation .. + He get's players from outside the country which MON and Mcleash didn't do !

[VillaCas]

 

Just had a look at your chart. Very interesting. Nice inverted head and shoulder formation prior to the first good run we had. Christmas period looks like a correction in an upward trend and now we've returned to old high we're getting resistance. Wouldn't be surprised if we crash through the trendline and find support about 1.00 when Bannan is recalled for the game against Norwich.

 

 

I agree, a control line of around 1.50 / 1.60 (LCL = 1.00, UCL = 1.85) would do for me, although with some decent investment in the summer maybe we can do a little better

 

I've read all your stats about BB, and although I understand and appreciate your point, somehow I can't reconcile that with what I see on the pitch. Let's hope your right though!! Keep up the good work on the stats front and we might bring a little mathematical rigour to the debate yet!!

[Big_John_10]

Let me be clear - I'm not claiming that we are Bayern Munich and that we are taking the football world by storm, I am merely pointing out that, whilst last season we started off averagely and gradually declined, getting worse as the season progressed. This season, we have started poorly and gradually improved.

You tried to argue we'd improved right before our Xmas period using a select amount of games and ignoring the fact it was officially the worst start to a premiership season we'd ever had.

Who would you rather have playing the last four games of the season - McL's declining squad from last week or PL's current improving squad - I know which one I'd choose

Not sure really. Mcleish's squad kept us up. I'm not sure this one will.

And I think it shows how badly we're doing when this type of question is a defence of the manager.

- The younger players have experience in the PL

See "Fundamental point" above.

Have to agree.

I can't see the worse defence I've seen in my lifetime suddenly click into place based on getting slightly older by a few months. Someone said we'd be a comfortable mid table team next year even if we didn't sign anyone. I can't see how that could happen with this defence.

[Stevo985]

I think Norwich could still be a team to watch. 

 

they lose to Stoke (a) next week - quite plausible. 

I don't disagree.

 

But I'd rather they beat Stoke. I'm happy to cut Norwich loose on the condition they beat Stoke. That way if we beat Sunderland we're all back on the same amount of points.

At that point Sunderland and Stoke are both back in it.

[Richard]

 

I think Norwich could still be a team to watch. 

 

they lose to Stoke (a) next week - quite plausible. 

I don't disagree.

 

But I'd rather they beat Stoke. I'm happy to cut Norwich loose on the condition they beat Stoke. That way if we beat Sunderland we're all back on the same amount of points.

At that point Sunderland and Stoke are both back in it.

 

and with Norwich safe they may be on the beach when we play them

[SlimJim]

 

and with Norwich safe they may be on the beach when we play them

We can but hope.

[PussEKatt]

The way I see it is that Lambert has had nearly a full season plus 2 transfer windows.What this means is that he has had plenty of time to get his message across to the players.So.If we cant beat teams like Sunderland and Norwich then that means that his system is definately not working.

Cause he has had more than enough time to get us to a point where we should be able to beat teams like the 2 mentioned, taking into consideration their position on the table.

[BOF]

and with Norwich safe they may be on the beach when we play them

With the Lambert factor I think they'd take the first flight back. Basically I don't think there's any scenario where Norwich are on the beach playing us.

[Folski]

 

and with Norwich safe they may be on the beach when we play them

With the Lambert factor I think they'd take the first flight back. Basically I don't think there's any scenario where Norwich are on the beach playing us.

 

 

I agree Brian, I'd say they would only be delighted to finish ahead of us number one and number do anything to relegate us. The place will be hoping as well, probably a sell out.

[Big_John_10]

Yep, no way Norwich fans allow their team to just coast that day.

[Wainy316]

If I were a neutral putting a bet on it, I would pick us to go down

You just know Wigan won't end up going down with their magical game in hand, that they appear to have just been awarded.

[MagicMushroom]

We will beat Norwich. They leave so much space for attackers to run into, so our quartet will have a field day.

 

Sunderland is the key.  Beat them, then Norwich and we are more or less safe.