Con Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 That graph that keeps popping up looks a bit like a very drunken man desperately trying to walk a straight line in order to get home. Depending on which way he lurches next, he will either stumble safely into his front door or end up in the gutter. And that just about sums up where we are at present. You can draw a line through the middle of any graph and call it a trend but that's only a statistical technicality. In the real world, we are at real risk of slumping to relegation but everyone has their fingers crossed we won't. And the idea that it "bodes well for next season" makes me chortle a bit. Unless we can seriously sort out some large structural weaknesses in the squad we are most likely in for another wibbly wobbly stagger home again. "You use statistics like a drunkard uses a lamppost. For support rather than illumination." - Quote (not verbatim) from a maths book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 LOL looks like someone has just learned the 'right click - add trendline' feature in Excel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I actually don't use any tactics on here and that is something you have made up in your own head. I also don't ignore points posters are making, as i respond to them with facts which i have done again replying to your post. The progression you speak of and shown statistically in you chart hasn't transpired into enough points in four months to move us away from the relegation zone where we have been for the majority of the season and that is the reality. - I don't recall saying that we had moved away from the relegation zone? We had a terrible start and a terrible Xmas. Stating the obvious, had we started better or maintained form over Christmas we would be safe by now but of course we are not. My only point is that under McLeish we were getting slowly worse and worse and under Lambert we are gradually getting better. If the table you put so much faith in still shows progression even though we are relegated will you still state the team has progressed under Lambert? - No, although personally I won't be asking for his head during the close season. If we had not shown any improvement since Xmas, I would join you in your criticism, however I am seeing enough positive signs to maintain my faith in Lambert. It's the modern disease to expect instant results - Lambert took over a shambles and it will be a long journey to get us back where we want to be. Like the majority I think, I've got the patience to back the team and the manager through that journey. If others have not that's up to them I believe that we can get 6 points from the next four games and that that will see us safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The improvement is marginal - we have recently beaten Reading QPR Stoke West Ham Welcome though those victories are - for me the don't represent a new dawn, - Had we been able to beat Fulham and Liverpool - 2 average sides, they maybe you would have point - but we didn't - as soon as we went ahead - we were pegged back with 15 minutes. Pretty much guarantee - that if we take the lead v sunderland -, they will equalize - unless, as I have said previously its after 75 minutes, then we may hold on I don't recall that I said that this represents a new dawn - my only point was that whilst last season we started averagely and gradually got worse, the trend this season is the opposite On your other point, we are 17th (perhaps slightly higher on current form) so of course we can only hope to beat those teams around us. We would need to improve considerably to be confident of beating teams like Liverpool consistently. This is our home(blue) and away(red) form adjusted by league position - clearly we do better against the worst teams. Incidentally, the chart suggests that if we might get 5 points from our remaining games (perhaps 7 if we just take our current form which is better) Wot you mean the above average liverpool - who in there next 2 games failed to beat west ham and reading ? - they may have a fine history - but in 2013 they are average as they come. Liverpool are 7th out of 20 teams, so yes, above average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 LOL looks like someone has just learned the 'right click - add trendline' feature in Excel. How do you go about adding trendlines then? With a big crayon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I actually don't use any tactics on here and that is something you have made up in your own head. I also don't ignore points posters are making, as i respond to them with facts which i have done again replying to your post. The progression you speak of and shown statistically in you chart hasn't transpired into enough points in four months to move us away from the relegation zone where we have been for the majority of the season and that is the reality. - I don't recall saying that we had moved away from the relegation zone? We had a terrible start and a terrible Xmas. Stating the obvious, had we started better or maintained form over Christmas we would be safe by now but of course we are not. My only point is that under McLeish we were getting slowly worse and worse and under Lambert we are gradually getting better. If the table you put so much faith in still shows progression even though we are relegated will you still state the team has progressed under Lambert? - No, although personally I won't be asking for his head during the close season. If we had not shown any improvement since Xmas, I would join you in your criticism, however I am seeing enough positive signs to maintain my faith in Lambert. It's the modern disease to expect instant results - Lambert took over a shambles and it will be a long journey to get us back where we want to be. Like the majority I think, I've got the patience to back the team and the manager through that journey. If others have not that's up to them I believe that we can get 6 points from the next four games and that that will see us safe. Even within the areas of our team which Lambert has taken his own scalpel to and tried to mend we have still been a shambles so i do not see many positive signs at the moment that after another 20m spent we are actually moving in the right direction. We have a very soft underbelly which has been exposed by the better teams and without new additions next year to replace the failures in defence and midfield we will struggle again if in the Premiership and out muscled if in the championship. However, I have previously stated and will still maintain that we will stay up by the skin of our teeth but not because i think we're improving but due more to the existence of three teams slightly worse than ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intercourse_The_Penguin Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Ugh. Had a really vivid dream last night that Wigan beat Spurs 3-0 and we lost 2-0 to the mackems. I felt the true depths of despair in this dream of knowing we were done for after that. Woke up in a cold sweat. Surely the universe couldn't be cruel enough to inflict that psychological torture on me twice, once asleep and once awake. Ergo Spurs will hammer the latics, we'll get something from Monday and we'll be okay. Just thought you'd all appreciate this newsworthy update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I can see Wigan getting 6 points before the final day, so they'll be on 37 We I think will get 4 points taking us to 38 We will go to Wigan needing a draw to stay up, they will need to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I can see Wigan getting 6 points before the final day, so they'll be on 37 We I think will get 4 points taking us to 38 We will go to Wigan needing a draw to stay up, they will need to win I'd take that scenario because I don't think we'll loose at Wigan but I hate it if we had the pressure on us to win there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Even within the areas of our team which Lambert has taken his own scalpel to and tried to mend we have still been a shambles so i do not see many positive signs at the moment that after another 20m spent we are actually moving in the right direction. We have a very soft underbelly which has been exposed by the better teams and without new additions next year to replace the failures in defence and midfield we will struggle again if in the Premiership and out muscled if in the championship. However, I have previously stated and will still maintain that we will stay up by the skin of our teeth but not because i think we're improving but due more to the existence of three teams slightly worse than ourselves. I'm not disagreeing with much of your assessment. We were a shambles when Lambert took over and it took him half a season to get to grips with what was required - you think thats due to him being a poor manager, I think that the problems we had were more deep rooted and where never going to be put right in a short period. I thought we had turned a corner 12-15 games in but the Xmas period proved me wrong and bought us back down to earth with a bang. Since then I think we have steadily improved - by that I mean we have moved from a team performing at relegation level to a team performing at mid-table level. Whether that is a real improvement or another false dawn, the next four games will go a long way to tell. Personally I expect us to get a win and two draws out of the last four games which is just about enough to see us safe. We then need serious work and investment to prepare for next season. Again in my opinion, Lambert is the right man for the job and I've seen enough from the players we've bought and particularly for the wages we are prepared to pay to think that with another decent investment PL can bring a few more players in. I think that some of those should be players with experience. Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Westwood and Benteke have all been decent for me. Bowery has been ok when called upon and he has been bought for the future. Bennett and KEA have failed to impress but I'm not ready to right them off just yet (Bennett in particular is young and I'm prepared to reserve judgement) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skarroki Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i would be very nervous right now but for some reason i have decided to completely right-off wigan. they need to pick up 3 more points than us before the end of the seaon and unfortunately for them i can't see it happening. They are relying on other teams, primarily us, to keep slipping up every week whilst they try to grab a few more points. then you've got sunderland who i am still not convinced by. I rate Di Canio and some of their players but it's too little too late for me. Stoke are still shit despite beating the worst team in the league and Norwich aren't much better either still. I'm not saying we're better than them, but i think we're on par, and with a better run-in than some of them. We have to stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted April 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted April 24, 2013 Even within the areas of our team which Lambert has taken his own scalpel to and tried to mend we have still been a shambles so i do not see many positive signs at the moment that after another 20m spent we are actually moving in the right direction. We have a very soft underbelly which has been exposed by the better teams and without new additions next year to replace the failures in defence and midfield we will struggle again if in the Premiership and out muscled if in the championship. However, I have previously stated and will still maintain that we will stay up by the skin of our teeth but not because i think we're improving but due more to the existence of three teams slightly worse than ourselves. I'm not disagreeing with much of your assessment. We were a shambles when Lambert took over and it took him half a season to get to grips with what was required - you think thats due to him being a poor manager, I think that the problems we had were more deep rooted and where never going to be put right in a short period. I thought we had turned a corner 12-15 games in but the Xmas period proved me wrong and bought us back down to earth with a bang. Since then I think we have steadily improved - by that I mean we have moved from a team performing at relegation level to a team performing at mid-table level. Whether that is a real improvement or another false dawn, the next four games will go a long way to tell. Personally I expect us to get a win and two draws out of the last four games which is just about enough to see us safe. We then need serious work and investment to prepare for next season. Again in my opinion, Lambert is the right man for the job and I've seen enough from the players we've bought and particularly for the wages we are prepared to pay to think that with another decent investment PL can bring a few more players in. I think that some of those should be players with experience. Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Westwood and Benteke have all been decent for me. Bowery has been ok when called upon and he has been bought for the future. Bennett and KEA have failed to impress but I'm not ready to right them off just yet (Bennett in particular is young and I'm prepared to reserve judgement) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 There are many attributes that relate to an improving football team. While its clear to see some of the improvements, there is equally a disappointing few that have not improved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I don't think we've improved really. Let's stop kidding ourselves. It's still thoroughly shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KHV Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I don't think we've improved really. Let's stop kidding ourselves. It's still thoroughly shit. its not going to be any better next year either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Well, if we stay up, all you can hope is the likes of Cardiff , Hull, Norwich , Stoke are worse than us. It's not much of an existence though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roonst83 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I don't think we've improved really. Let's stop kidding ourselves. It's still thoroughly shit. its not going to be any better next year either I disagree actually. If we manage to stay up I feel we'll address some of our weaknesses and Lambert will have had a full season to evaluate what we've got and what we need. Also with the added TV money and the sale of some of our current players (Dunne, Bent no doubt) I'm confident we'd be backed with a bit of money to strengthen. A potential downside is that they guy who scouted Benteke is no longer with us. Staying up would give our players such a huge lift for next season too. But we need to somehow cross that finish line first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I would have more confidence if I seen from some of our younger players a maturity and physical and mental strength that would go hand in hand with succeeding in the prem. ability is one thing......application is quite something else. our younger lads, if they are going to make it ......need to start imposing themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmytheirishvillain Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I can honestly see Wigan beating spurs at weekend and that will be our darkest day because if they can pull a big result like that off then their momentum will pull them over the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 A potential downside is that they guy who scouted Benteke is no longer with us. Do we actually know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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