Global Warming

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

This was discussed briefly in the Hardcore History Addendum podcast last week.

Democracies are really bad at long term planning. Global warming requires significant efforts to be made today that mean people today need to best a cost that they will not benefit from. That's not a vote winner.

See California's high-speed train project for just the best current example of this dynamic. 

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

Even worse, the efforts required to make a difference to climate change are completely at odds with market capitalism - and that isn't going to change for anyone. To do something about this, we're going to have to change the way we think about our societies, how they work and operate; we're going to need a new economic model. 

Essentially we're doomed. 

There will be a point where it will become such a crisis that finding a solution will be a vote winner and there will be money to be made from the solution so capitalism will play a role. The question will be whether it's too late to turn the ship around by then. 

[KenjiOgiwara]

10 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

It’s partly / mainly  man made , would be the established fact , wouldn’t it ?

we are to blame , but not solely to blame 

Tis true. But global warming normally refers to the increased rapid rate of global warming. And the positive feedback that's gone completely off the rails, that's 100% human work. 

[blandy]

11 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Even worse, the efforts required to make a difference to climate change are completely at odds with market capitalism - and that isn't going to change for anyone. To do something about this, we're going to have to change the way we think about our societies, how they work and operate; we're going to need a new economic model. 

Essentially we're doomed. 

CO2.

[tonyh29]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

CO2.

was reading something the other day about how they are using CO2 for fuel (or energy or something) at various factories  ... so they kinda capture the CO2 commissions  mix it with hydrogen and recycle it back as fuel

long way to go and of course it would be better not to create the CO2 in the first place   but every little helps  I guess

[lapal_fan]

14 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

It’s partly / mainly  man made , would be the established fact , wouldn’t it ?

we are to blame , but not solely to blame 

True, but not true.  

It's True there are hot/cold periods within our Earth's history and we are going into a hotter one now.  

What isn't true is just how quickly we're heating up - in the last 40 years (even not taking the Industrial Revolution into consideration) it's absolutely unprecedented.  Which is why elderly people can actually evidence changes in seasonal behavior (**** hell, even I can, and I'm 31).  

Don't forget, it's not just building emissions which are growing at exponential rates in developing countries (with huge populations), it's the way we manage land and farm - which again - due to big business is more and more destructive and what we put in place of natural landscapes also increase our GHG's hugely. 

The world is a pretty big place, and there is an awful lot of land untouched by humans, but we're already past the output of what the world can sustainably offer pretty early on in the year now (I can't remember what the date is, but essentially it's the output of Earth per year and how fast we go past that date).

We need another Kyoto agreement for long term planning. 

[blandy]

15 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Even worse, the efforts required to make a difference to climate change are completely at odds with market capitalism - and that isn't going to change for anyone. To do something about this, we're going to have to change the way we think about our societies, how they work and operate; we're going to need a new economic model. 

Essentially we're doomed. 

I'm more hopeful. I don't think Market Capitalism, flawed as it is, dooms us all. Because if there's more money to be made investing in (say) solar than oil, then the market goes away from oil and towards solar....etc.

It'll need a mightly heave to get gov'ts to change, and to regulate and incentivise and decentivise etc.  and it may not happen until it's too late, but it might still happen in time.

[peterms]

Son is going to a barbecue today.  In February.  In Scotland.

[chrisp65]

yesterday's record for hottest winter's day got broken today

 

But as you recycle your bottle tops, consider this. My nipper's Uni in the States had a metre of snow fall in 24 hours on two separate days this week. But it was still safe to walk to Uni, as the pavements on campus have underground heating. 

[OutByEaster?]

7 hours ago, blandy said:

I'm more hopeful. I don't think Market Capitalism, flawed as it is, dooms us all. Because if there's more money to be made investing in (say) solar than oil, then the market goes away from oil and towards solar....etc.

I'm very hopeful you're right, even though I'm less hopeful myself. It seems to me that markets don't really work that way unfortunately, they should, but they don't, they aren't just swayed by conditions - they're massively protective of existing money. If oil is already in control, it'll prevent solar becoming viable. My understanding is that right now it's cheaper to produce solar energy than using coal in the US, but coal (along with a lot of other existing powers) owns the President and feeds the banks, so coal gets to make the rules. I think eventually, there's a sort of common sense switchover, but eventually is a bad word in terms of climate control.

 

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I'm very hopeful you're right, even though I'm less hopeful myself. It seems to me that markets don't really work that way unfortunately, they should, but they don't, they aren't just swayed by conditions - they're massively protective of existing money. If oil is already in control, it'll prevent solar becoming viable. My understanding is that right now it's cheaper to produce solar energy than using coal in the US, but coal (along with a lot of other existing powers) owns the President and feeds the banks, so coal gets to make the rules. I think eventually, there's a sort of common sense switchover, but eventually is a bad word in terms of climate control.

 

Yeah, fair comment. Yet in the US the like of OCS and others from the Dems are pushing this Green Deal (or whatever they're calling it) and their personal popularity and the popularity of the idea is hugely popular (something like 70% approval rating). Extreme weather events occurring so regularly are having an impact with the populations and while you're right that Gov'ts and industry are reluctant to act, they will, or they'll be voted out and Industry always follows the money. While Big Oil will lobby to keep taxes on oil down, tech companies (e.g the motor industry) are already heading down, er, electric avenue. And reaping free Sun for electricity is easier than digging big holes to get oil out of. Look at wind generation, Solar and other renewable industries and the rate they've grown. And while they're being held back, still, they're still growing. It's not going to stop.

[chrisp65]

I think capitalism will ride to our rescue by offering a place in a survival biosphere dome for those with the money.

[blandy]

11 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I think capitalism will ride to our rescue by offering a place in a survival biosphere dome for those with the money.

Will they have cheese and Onion nutri-pills? I'm gonna start saving up, if so.

[chrisp65]

Just now, blandy said:

Will they have cheese and Onion nutri-pills? I'm gonna start saving up, if so.

it'll be like Barbarella but with Richard Branson

[OutByEaster?]

21 minutes ago, blandy said:

Yeah, fair comment. Yet in the US the like of OCS and others from the Dems are pushing this Green Deal (or whatever they're calling it) and their personal popularity and the popularity of the idea is hugely popular (something like 70% approval rating). Extreme weather events occurring so regularly are having an impact with the populations and while you're right that Gov'ts and industry are reluctant to act, they will, or they'll be voted out and Industry always follows the money. While Big Oil will lobby to keep taxes on oil down, tech companies (e.g the motor industry) are already heading down, er, electric avenue. And reaping free Sun for electricity is easier than digging big holes to get oil out of. Look at wind generation, Solar and other renewable industries and the rate they've grown. And while they're being held back, still, they're still growing. It's not going to stop.

They are indeed growing and it's a big positive - the problem is that the other stuff is growing too. Emissions are at a record level and whilst that progress isn't going to stop, we're at a stage where it's most likely already too late.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

it'll be like Barbarella but with Richard Branson

Beardarella ? 

[snowychap]

Coal Consumption by region (million tonnes oil equivalent)

 

Edit: It's one big, black lump now because I had to convert it from an SVG file and, well, it's coal, innit.

Edited February 27, 2019 by snowychap

[HanoiVillan]

This is quite good IMO

 

[Xann]

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk/map

This is quite sobering.

A railway embankment stops my place from being on a reservoir flood plain.

There's a lot of homes on the other side of that embankment.

Never known the area at risk to flood. Guess they've factored in more recent weather data.

[LondonLax]

Quote

Last year was the hottest ever measured, continuing an upward trend that is a direct result of manmade greenhouse gas emissions.

The key to the measurements is the oceans. Oceans absorb more than 90% of the heat that results from greenhouse gases, so if you want to measure global warming you really have to measure ocean warming.

There are other ways to measure climate change, but none are as convincing as the oceans. Air temperatures are most commonly reported in the media as evidence of global warming, but the problem with these is they are very erratic. While there is certainly a long-term trend of higher air temperatures, any given year may be warmer or colder than the last. 

So oceans are key, and they are telling us a clear story. The last five years were the five hottest on record. The numbers are huge: in 2018 the extra ocean heat compared to a 1981-2010 baseline amounted to 196,700,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules. The current rate of ocean warming is equivalent to five Hiroshima-size atomic bombs exploding every second.

The bit in bold sounds fairly horrific. 

Guardian