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Midweek Football 1/4 April


andykeenan

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Just now, Villaphan04 said:

leads to an Ipswich 90+7 minute winner. Wow

Gotta love it when a stadium explodes like that

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1 hour ago, bobzy said:

Not 5-1, no (as I said), but QPR were pretty unlucky there a couple of weeks back (another side battling the drop).  Don't think Sunderland had a single shot on target that game.  So, yes, 5-1 quite surprising but honestly Sunderland have gone to pot.

We could go back and forth on this and I’ve no great desire to do so, but when considering whether a result, regardless of the scoreline, is surprising, it’s probably worth bearing in mind the form of both sides. 

Sunderland haven’t been good, although three of their recent defeats have been against Southampton, Leicester and Norwich whom are all pushing for promotion. Perhaps not completely unexpected that they’d lose those and as such it could be argued the relatively good opposition has played their part. 

Blackburn’s form…well, prior to today it was 1 win in 18. So I’ll hold my hands up, I wouldn’t have thought they would win today against a side who had seemingly overcome their own bad run having picked up 4 points from their previous 2 games.

 

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Ipswich are far far better than Luton Town were last season in the Championship, Ipswich owners are also very wealthy, so will spend a lot more than Luton did if they get promoted. And Luton are actually doing well relative to their resources, still have a chance of surviving, when many were talking about them breaking Derby County's record

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Would like to see Ipswich come up. Got a soft spot for the town. 

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15 minutes ago, Xela said:

Would like to see Ipswich come up. Would like to smash them twice 

😎

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29 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

We could go back and forth on this and I’ve no great desire to do so, but when considering whether a result, regardless of the scoreline, is surprising, it’s probably worth bearing in mind the form of both sides. 

Sunderland haven’t been good, although three of their recent defeats have been against Southampton, Leicester and Norwich whom are all pushing for promotion. Perhaps not completely unexpected that they’d lose those and as such it could be argued the relatively good opposition has played their part. 

Blackburn’s form…well, prior to today it was 1 win in 18. So I’ll hold my hands up, I wouldn’t have thought they would win today against a side who had seemingly overcome their own bad run having picked up 4 points from their previous 2 games.

I don't know if you follow the Championship that much - Sunderland are woeful at the moment.  Their odds pre-match wouldn't have been great; the result wasn't some massive shock even if the scoreline was.  I don't know what else to say, really.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, bobzy said:

I don't know if you follow the Championship that much - Sunderland are woeful at the moment.  Their odds pre-match wouldn't have been great; the result wasn't some massive shock even if the scoreline was.  I don't know what else to say, really.

I don’t really.

But I assume you would agree with my point that a team who are on an even more dismal run, like Blackburn, might not be expected to rock up and win.

 

Edit - I am also assuming you accept the point because you ignored it :)

As say, I’m done with the conversation but feel free to reply if you wish.

Edited by Mark Albrighton
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Just now, Mark Albrighton said:

I don’t really.

But I assume you would agree with my point that a team who are on an even more dismal run, like Blackburn, might not be expected to rock up and win.

They aren't on a more dismal run, though.  They're in better "form" over the last 10 games.  They've only lost a couple - but they draw loads (granted, they've had some bad results.  Think they lost to Blues and drew with Huddersfield); whereas Sunderland have lost a ton.  Blackburn have the leagues' top scorer too.

It would sort of be akin to Brentford going away to West Ham and winning.  If you were a betting man, you'd say it's more likely that West Ham would win but Brentford have Toney, neither side are in great shape and you wouldn't be surprised if they got a victory there.

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3 hours ago, bobzy said:

How long ago was that?  They've got a tough run-in but also have the leagues top goal scorer.  Sunderland are in really poor form so, whilst 5-1 is surprising, a side winning there really isn't.

Sheff Weds have Sunderland on the last day so that could be salvation at least as they're an ideal side to play in the run in bang in mid table and with no manager.

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1 hour ago, theboyangel said:

About to sack their manager.

Shouldve known better than to hire someone who had ‘learnt’ under Stevie Geeee! 

You have to think Warnock will probably get that for the last six months given he's available and based down there.

He's shown time and again what he can do and he's saved clubs in far worse circumstances (just last season with Huddersfield who were well adrift when he took charge).

Get him in and Plymouth have a chance of getting 3 wins still rather than messing about with someone who's just managed Luton's under 18s or something.

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13 minutes ago, bobzy said:

They aren't on a more dismal run, though.  They're in better "form" over the last 10 games.  They've only lost a couple - but they draw loads (granted, they've had some bad results.  Think they lost to Blues and drew with Huddersfield); whereas Sunderland have lost a ton.  Blackburn have the leagues' top scorer too.

It would sort of be akin to Brentford going away to West Ham and winning.  If you were a betting man, you'd say it's more likely that West Ham would win but Brentford have Toney, neither side are in great shape and you wouldn't be surprised if they got a victory there.

Ok this IS my last point and I accept it’s getting incredibly nuanced and frankly ridiculous and tedious (which I accept I have played my part).

You chose 10 games. Add up the points for the previous 10 games for both clubs. Who has more - Sunderland or Blackburn? I make it Sunderland by a point. Therefore prior to today, Blackburn were in worse form over the period of time you chose. 

I understand you are making the point that Sunderland are playing in form that is more beatable. Fine. But if you’re going to do that, I would not try and showcase that choosing X amount of games where they still managed to accrue more points than the opposition in question. Sunderland have lost more in that time, they’ve also won more. 

Hope you had a nice Easter.
 

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3 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

Ok this IS my last point and I accept it’s getting incredibly nuanced and frankly ridiculous and tedious (which I accept I have played my part).

You chose 10 games. Add up the points for the previous 10 games for both clubs. Who has more - Sunderland or Blackburn? I make it Sunderland by a point. Therefore prior to today, Blackburn were in worse form over the period of time you chose. 

I understand you are making the point that Sunderland are playing in form that is more beatable. Fine. But if you’re going to do that, I would not try and showcase that choosing X amount of games where they still managed to accrue more points than the opposition in question. Sunderland have lost more in that time, they’ve also won more. 

Hope you had a nice Easter.
 

I did - Blackburn have more.  They beat Sunderland today.

 

Lovely Easter thanks mate - hope you did too :D 

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1 minute ago, bobzy said:

I did - Blackburn have more.  They beat Sunderland today.

 

Lovely Easter thanks mate - hope you did too :D 

Prior to today, when determining whether a result was “expected”. 

I think you knew that though…

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