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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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4 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

If we end up 5th sporting wise the Europa League is a better competition next season as there are no CL sides dropping into it. So surely we'd be amongst the favourites to win it. Also if we can make the final of The ECL we'll have a decent enough seeding for Europa.

The loss of the extra CL place for Prem was a blip this season most seasons there will be 5 and with Europa we'll have an opportunity to win that and qualify.

5th and Europa League of that's what it ends up as is progression. Sporting fate robbed it of being CL qualification this year but of we get to 70 points whatever happens that's a huge achievement with the injury problems we've had. 

I worry a little this summer about the finances but seeing how Rogers has turned out so far is encouraging in terms of recruitment. While a season with Ramsey, Mings and Buendia back fit would be welcome boost. Duran is progressing too. 

That’s a good positive message CVByrne!
 

I can tell we’re all feeling better now the coefficient uncertainty has been resolved and we can just focus on Villa.

I’d rather win the Europa League than be knocked out in the group stage of the UCL. Let’s just see where we get to and enjoy the ride

 

 

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7 hours ago, IrishVilla10 said:

Players want champions league 

We managed to build the squad we have now without offering Champions League. In the vast majority of cases they were signed to a club who appeared to only offer persistent relegation battles with some mid-table ambition. 

At this level, the difference in player quality is real, not fake, but not massive. Our advantage is the opportunity to be coached by one of the game's best managers. 

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11 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

If we end up 5th sporting wise the Europa League is a better competition next season as there are no CL sides dropping into it. So surely we'd be amongst the favourites to win it. Also if we can make the final of The ECL we'll have a decent enough seeding for Europa.

The loss of the extra CL place for Prem was a blip this season most seasons there will be 5 and with Europa we'll have an opportunity to win that and qualify.

5th and Europa League of that's what it ends up as is progression. Sporting fate robbed it of being CL qualification this year but of we get to 70 points whatever happens that's a huge achievement with the injury problems we've had. 

I worry a little this summer about the finances but seeing how Rogers has turned out so far is encouraging in terms of recruitment. While a season with Ramsey, Mings and Buendia back fit would be welcome boost. Duran is progressing too. 

Who are you and what have you done to @CVByrne

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7 hours ago, IrishVilla10 said:

Players want champions league 

We'll they need to make sure they're putting 100% into the games to make sure we win the games we need to.

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I've absolutely geeked out and made an excel spreadsheet for our fixtures vs spurs ones. If we get through vs Lille then  after this weekend's match vs Bournemouth both us and Spurs have 6 games in 22/23 days from 27/28th April through to 19th May - but two of ours are Conference League games. I.e. our fixture congestion is pretty similar.

I think a mid-low case prediction for us is to get to 70 points, picking up 2 wins and a draw from our remaining prem fixtures - this would be a big drop off in form for us (1.4 PPG), 73 points is probably more of a proper mid case prediction (2 PPG).

Unless Spurs can get some points off City, Arsenal or Liverpool (who will all still be fighting for the title...) they can only get 69 points, and that involves beating Chelsea at Stamford bridge.

Anything could happen of course, but it's ours to lose.  

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67 points could be enough for 4th. I think 70 definitely will be.

Beating Bournemouth at the weekend would be a big step in the right direction and might make everything feel a little easier.

 

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2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

67 points could be enough for 4th. I think 70 definitely will be.

Beating Bournemouth at the weekend would be a big step in the right direction and might make everything feel a little easier.

 

I'm not sure it will, Spurs will beat Sheff Utd and Burnley, so that's 66 points minimum for them.  That would mean them getting zero points from Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or City, which is entirely possible, but likely they will draw or beat one of those four they're not expected too. 

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7 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

67 points could be enough for 4th. I think 70 definitely will be.

Beating Bournemouth at the weekend would be a big step in the right direction and might make everything feel a little easier.

 

I would nearly guarantee us getting 70pts at least in our remaining 5 games.  7pts.  Will that be enough for 4th?  I wouldn’t be as confident 

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9 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

67 points could be enough for 4th. I think 70 definitely will be.

Beating Bournemouth at the weekend would be a big step in the right direction and might make everything feel a little easier.

 

yeah i think 3 wins from our remaining 5 basically seals it and the easiest of those is this sunday. it's going to be a nervous one this weekend.

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6 minutes ago, duke313 said:

I'm not sure it will, Spurs will beat Sheff Utd and Burnley, so that's 66 points minimum for them.  That would mean them getting zero points from Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or City, which is entirely possible, but likely they will draw or beat one of those four they're not expected too. 

I think Spurs will need to get at least two points out of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and City - which isn't at all impossible, but isn't easy either - I think between them, those four sides will make sure Spurs goals difference takes a hit and we'll be okay if we're level on points.

If we can get to 70, I think that would be very difficult for Spurs to overtake.

 

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1 hour ago, bcarpet said:

Sorry I completely missed this, did that really happen?

yeah it was a Diaby jersey - I assume Diaby sent it to him as they were together at Leverkeusen?

you can find it on twitter but be prepared for some questionable dance moves

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  Villa Spurs
18-Apr-24 Lille (A)  
21-Apr-24 Bournemouth (H)  
27-Apr-24 Chelsea (H)  
28-Apr-24   Arsenal (H)
02-May-24 ECL (H) Chelsea (A)
04-May-24 Brighton (A)  
05-May-24   Liverpool (A)
09-May-24 ECL (A)  
11-May-24   Burnley (H)
13-May-24 Liverpool (H)  
14-May-24   Man City (H)
19-May-24 Palace (A) Sheff Utd (H)
29-May-24 ECL Final  

If we get to ECL semi finals, then the Brighton game will be moved to 5th.

Looking at the run in, if we can beat Bournemouth and Chelsea, we could be 9 points ahead of Spurs before they even play again, that is massive psychologically.

 

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10 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think Spurs will need to get at least two points out of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and City - which isn't at all impossible, but isn't easy either - I think between them, those four sides will make sure Spurs goals difference takes a hit and we'll be okay if we're level on points.

If we can get to 70, I think that would be very difficult for Spurs to overtake.

 

I could see Spurs getting 4pts out of those 4 games.  A win and a draw isn’t unrealistic, especially 2 at home.  They will get 6pts from other 2 games.  That leaves them on 70.  Hopefully they get hammered in one of those 4

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7 minutes ago, duke313 said:
  Villa Spurs
18-Apr-24 Lille (A)  
21-Apr-24 Bournemouth (H)  
27-Apr-24 Chelsea (H)  
28-Apr-24   Arsenal (H)
02-May-24 ECL (H) Chelsea (A)
04-May-24 Brighton (A)  
05-May-24   Liverpool (A)
09-May-24 ECL (A)  
11-May-24   Burnley (H)
13-May-24 Liverpool (H)  
14-May-24   Man City (H)
19-May-24 Palace (A) Sheff Utd (H)
29-May-24 ECL Final  

If we get to ECL semi finals, then the Brighton game will be moved to 5th.

Looking at the run in, if we can beat Bournemouth and Chelsea, we could be 9 points ahead of Spurs before they even play again, that is massive psychologically.

 

We have a psychological edge in having the opportunity to get points on the board for the vast majority of the run in. I'll take points on the board over games in hand any day of the week.

Spurs will constantly be trying to catch up with us if we do our jobs and we know how prone they are to bottling it in these situations.

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7 minutes ago, duke313 said:
  Villa Spurs
18-Apr-24 Lille (A)  
21-Apr-24 Bournemouth (H)  
27-Apr-24 Chelsea (H)  
28-Apr-24   Arsenal (H)
02-May-24 ECL (H) Chelsea (A)
04-May-24 Brighton (A)  
05-May-24   Liverpool (A)
09-May-24 ECL (A)  
11-May-24   Burnley (H)
13-May-24 Liverpool (H)  
14-May-24   Man City (H)
19-May-24 Palace (A) Sheff Utd (H)
29-May-24 ECL Final  

If we get to ECL semi finals, then the Brighton game will be moved to 5th.

Looking at the run in, if we can beat Bournemouth and Chelsea, we could be 9 points ahead of Spurs before they even play again, that is massive psychologically.

 

That’s what I’m banking on - Those 6 points will be crucial for 4th. Spurs will go away and be spursey as per usual if we win those two. Even then we have a good chance if we don’t get two wins. 

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