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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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3 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

I don't think it would be unreasonable to say we take 9 points from our last 6 games then we'll finish 4th. I'd be extremely confident that if we needed a win to secure 4th on the last day against Palace away then we'd get it. To be in that position we'd need 6 points from our next 5. Take 3 against Bournemouth then we'd need to find 3 points from Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) Brighton (A) and Liverpool (H). 

I know its marginal but turn that 9 into 10 pts and id sort of feel it may be enough.

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I think the worry here as got to be Bournemouth catching us. They will be 16 points behind if they hold on here and have us to play still.

Edited by markavfc40
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14 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

I think the worry here as got to be Bournemouth catching us. They will be 16 points behind if they hold on here and have us to play still.

I bet CVByrne is buying one of their kits already 

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7 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I think the real worry is us getting relegated tbh

Wait… do you mean to say, we should open up the thread again? 

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I have some fears of holding on to 5th, but they reduce slightly as the games run out.

However, that's nothing to with irrational fears, but the fact we have six games left, two of which we're strong favourites to lose and two of which are incredibly tricky (rejuvenated Chelsea and Brighton away) meaning our two 'bankers' of Bournemouth and Palace (A) have a lot of increased pressure on them.

Add to that suspensions, injuries, a lack of form and the fact we've no experience in this situation, I'm uneasy crowing that we've got 5th or above in the bag so confidently as others. A win against Bournemouth may change that with a few other favourable results. It's not a sleight on Emery to suggest we may struggle to hold fifth, it's a culmination of the situation you can find yourself in this part of the season when you're a smaller team in terms of squad depth and experience. We're looking good for it at the moment... But not enough to be shouting 'ole' with every pass.

But with 5th now looking incredibly shaky for CL anyway, it may well be irrelevant. 5th or 6th wouldn't make much of a difference. It'd be fourth or nothing and that looks tricky, despite both us and Spurs stuttering, as they have the healthier squad, the experience, the game in hand and no European distractions.

Suppose most of this will be clear one way or the other in the next 10 days.

 

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3 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

I have some fears of holding on to 5th, but they reduce slightly as the games run out.

However, that's nothing to with irrational fears, but the fact we have six games left, two of which we're strong favourites to lose and two of which are incredibly tricky (rejuvenated Chelsea and Brighton away) meaning our two 'bankers' of Bournemouth and Palace (A) have a lot of increased pressure on them.

Add to that suspensions, injuries, a lack of form and the fact we've no experience in this situation, I'm uneasy crowing that we've got 5th or above in the bag so confidently as others. A win against Bournemouth may change that with a few other favourable results. It's not a sleight on Emery to suggest we may struggle to hold fifth, it's a culmination of the situation you can find yourself in this part of the season when you're a smaller team in terms of squad depth and experience. We're looking good for it at the moment... But not enough to be shouting 'ole' with every pass.

But with 5th now looking incredibly shaky for CL anyway, it may well be irrelevant. 5th or 6th wouldn't make much of a difference. It'd be fourth or nothing and that looks tricky, despite both us and Spurs stuttering, as they have the healthier squad, the experience, the game in hand and no European distractions.

Suppose most of this will be clear one way or the other in the next 10 days.

 

Assuming Man United lose today, the chances of us finishing below 5th are very very slim.

The chances of 5th not being a CL spot however are far far higher. Arsenal's game against Bayern Munich is far more important than any league game featuring other teams now.

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3 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

I have some fears of holding on to 5th, but they reduce slightly as the games run out.

However, that's nothing to with irrational fears, but the fact we have six games left, two of which we're strong favourites to lose and two of which are incredibly tricky (rejuvenated Chelsea and Brighton away) meaning our two 'bankers' of Bournemouth and Palace (A) have a lot of increased pressure on them.

Add to that suspensions, injuries, a lack of form and the fact we've no experience in this situation, I'm uneasy crowing that we've got 5th or above in the bag so confidently as others. A win against Bournemouth may change that with a few other favourable results. It's not a sleight on Emery to suggest we may struggle to hold fifth, it's a culmination of the situation you can find yourself in this part of the season when you're a smaller team in terms of squad depth and experience. We're looking good for it at the moment... But not enough to be shouting 'ole' with every pass.

But with 5th now looking incredibly shaky for CL anyway, it may well be irrelevant. 5th or 6th wouldn't make much of a difference. It'd be fourth or nothing and that looks tricky, despite both us and Spurs stuttering, as they have the healthier squad, the experience, the game in hand and no European distractions.

Suppose most of this will be clear one way or the other in the next 10 days.

 

Can see the logic in a lot of what you're saying but Spurs do not have a game in hand as of now.

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5 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

 

However, that's nothing to with irrational

It’s literally the definition of irrational 

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It’s been a strange season in many ways. We aren’t playing well enough over the last few weeks and months to finish 4th, even 5th, but there’s so many poor teams this season that keep messing up when they have a chance to close the gap, United a prime example and Tottenham too.

 

We’ll finish 4th or 5th but by default more than anything.

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