ben1505 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 On 06/04/2024 at 11:29, omariqy said: So I have looked at a few different scenarios Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below Scenario 1 Man City - 0.500 points in total Bayern - 0.571 points Arsenal - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.660 England - 17.875 England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. Scenario 2 Bayern - 0.571 Man City - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.375 In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals Scenario 3 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.125 Germany - 17.214 England - 17.5 In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario Man City - 0.500 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.214 England - 18.25 In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. Is there any scenario where Italy finish 3rd behind England and Germany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 hour ago, ben1505 said: Is there any scenario where Italy finish 3rd behind England and Germany? Almost impossible given their lead and the fact Roma and Milan play each other so they are guaranteed a certain level of points. Fiorentina also favourites to win their tie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozvilla28 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Keep wining our games and play well rest looks after itself very simple don't rely on anyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 7 hours ago, Tayls said: So 5th or 6th is where we will end up then after this weekends events. It’s the difference between playing in the champions league and playing in the europa league.. I’ll tell ya, I’ll be disappointed if we end up out the champs league places having spent so much of the season in them. I think 4th is Spurs’ to lose now. They have a tough run of fixtures, sure, but they aren’t 4th because they are a terrible side. I reckon they’ll hold it. Roll on the end of the season, it’s starting to get a bit nervy now. 6th? How do you figure? Worst case scenario we're 3 points behind 4th and 8 points (and far superior GD) ahead of 6th with games in hand played. Also why are this weekend's events any more significant than last weekend's, or next's? Does your outlook on the future change on a game to game basis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 8 VT Supporter Share Posted April 8 There’s FAR FAR more chance of us finishing 4th than finishing 6th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taxahunter Posted April 8 VT Supporter Share Posted April 8 (edited) https://bold.dk/fodbold/stillinger/premier-league/nyheder/maddison-undgik-rodt-for-maveslag-manager-forstar-intet How isn't that a red? Would have helped us and Forest big time... Edited April 8 by Taxahunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Captain_Townsend Posted April 8 Popular Post Share Posted April 8 I love this team and manager. Just look at the disruption we have had since day one with horrific injuries to several key players. Yet here we are in 5th place. It's not that long ago an injury to one player for 3 months almost confined us to another season in the championship. Some perspective is needed in certain quarters. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 It is all about the coefficient. I think England will do it, and that 5th is already ours. The rest of the season after a week on Thursday will be weirdly lacking pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 7 hours ago, ben1505 said: Where did you have them gaining points from any of Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool? They're not just going to lose all 5 of these matches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 12 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: They're not just going to lose all 5 of these matches. Yeah I think they can get 5/6 out of that quite easily 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) 20 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: 7 hours ago, ben1505 said: Where did you have them gaining points from any of Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool? They're not just going to lose all 5 of these matches. It’s a tough group of games. It would be glorious if they get five or less points but they’ll deserve fourth place if they manage to get twelve points. You look at those fixtures and you just can’t even get a range because they are a bit Jekyll and Hyde from game to game and even within games. Pessimist in me says they should beat Newcastle and Chelsea, could snatch a draw in the derby against Arsenal, they have a very strong record at home against City so could win and assume away loss at Liverpool so that would be 10 points. Optimist in me says, Newcastle at home will win, derby against Chelsea draw, Arsenal draw, City win with KDB and their usual end of season run, and Liverpool draw so 3 points. edit: I realised afterwards the pessimist and optimist on the Liverpool game conflict but I was trying to be reasonable on the total points Edited April 8 by nick76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben1505 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Having watched them v Forest, I would say that they let chances happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 8 VT Supporter Share Posted April 8 32 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: They're not just going to lose all 5 of these matches. A logic people should apply to Aston Villa as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OutByEaster? Posted April 8 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted April 8 It's great isn't it? To be involved in the battle for real prizes - Champions league qualification, a European trophy - to have massive importance not just on our own games, but on the games of so many other sides - to be engaged in everything, to have something important happen every couple of days and to be in such a good position at this stage - it's brilliant. It's tense, it's complicated and confusing and simple and exciting, a happy anxiety. I'm really enjoying it. The next couple of weeks are going to be incredible. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: A logic people should apply to Aston Villa as well True but we've lost on aggregate 2-8 to Spurs and City lately. Plus conceded another 3 to fking Brentford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talldarkandransome Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: It's great isn't it? To be involved in the battle for real prizes - Champions league qualification, a European trophy - to have massive importance not just on our own games, but on the games of so many other sides - to be engaged in everything, to have something important happen every couple of days and to be in such a good position at this stage - it's brilliant. It's tense, it's complicated and confusing and simple and exciting, a happy anxiety. I'm really enjoying it. The next couple of weeks are going to be incredible. I think there's a few on here who can't cope with it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 hour ago, Jareth said: It is all about the coefficient. I think England will do it, and that 5th is already ours. The rest of the season after a week on Thursday will be weirdly lacking pressure. It would be great to have 5th place more or less confirmed as a champions league place whilst we get to the semi final of the Conference. Imagine having already qualified and 3 games away from a European trophy. Emery needs a statue for the fact we are even having this conversation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Talldarkandransome said: I think there's a few on here who can't cope with it It is only a game and we’re all grown men but it can get a bit much sometimes. I just block myself from this site for a few days when I find it’s getting to me. I know that’s sad but it’s easy to get drawn in to arguments when we have a poor performance. Fans lose perspective. It soon passes. Edited April 8 by Vive_La_Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 How does anyone watch last weekend and think United are still going to catch us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talldarkandransome Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: It is only a game and we’re all grown men but it can get a bit much sometimes. I just block myself from this site and for a few days when I find it’s getting to me. I know that’s sad but it’s easy to get drawn in to arguments when we have a poor performance. Fans lose perspective. It soon passes. Yep, we've had a few stinkers but on the whole it's been an amazing season so far. Most fans would have been happy before a ball was kicked with this position, especially with all the serious injuries.. its just a shame Xmas was a bit shite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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