VillaJ100 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Villa being Villa, I can see a situation where we just miss out on 4th but make europa Conference final and so would be effectively playing that to make 5th live for CL. Imagine the pressure on that game, going for our first serious trophy since 1996 AND potentially game changer of us playing in CL. That's going to be 10 times the pressure we had at 2-0 up at Man. United so we'd need to handle that well. Just hope we don't end up 6th with some other shits 5th and if we win if gives them champs league 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 So even the most pessimistic Villa fan would agree that basically it is only Man Utd now that can possibly stop us finishing in the top 5. I know, I know, shouldn't do this buuuuut.... Current Standings; Us 46 points, Them 38. Their remaining fixtures are; Us (H), Luton (A), Fulham (H), Man City (A), Everton (H), Sheff Utd (H), Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (h), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Arsenal (H) and Brighton (A). The ones in bold I would say are pretty much dead certs. I wouldn't be shocked with draws or defeats in any of the others, but let's say (pessimistic head) wins in the following; Us, Luton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Palace - Say defeats against City and Liverpool and draws elswhere - That's a record of P15 W9 D4 L2 PTS 31 - Giving them 69 points! I don't think that's totally unrealistic, albeit a little negative from our POV. This would mean we would require the magic number of 70, and 24 points from 14 matches, I can see wins for us in Forest (H), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H) and Chelsea (H) matches. We would then require a further 12 points from Fulham, Luton, Spurs, West Ham, Wolves, City, Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool and Palace. I think we CAN do it - But BEATING them this Sunday would make it a whole lot more likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 (edited) They'll struggle to get more than 65 points imo. Maybe more if they beat us as that would be three straight wins so momentum with likes of Shaw and Casemiro back. Martinez potentially being out for more months is bad news though. Could see Brighton beating them on the final day and denying them even 7th. Edited February 5 by VillaChris 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 hours ago, allani said: Next weekend is massive. A real 6 pointer for us against Man Utd. Win and we would be 11 points ahead of them with 14 matches to go. Whilst Utd are one of those teams that could string 6 or 7 wins together they are also the type of team that can just as easily string 2 or 3 defeats together. I can't see them scoring more than 25 - 30 points in those 14 games so that would leave us needing 20 to be pretty confident. So from that perspective a draw wouldn't be a bad result - leaving us an 8 point gap. So 25 points (2 points per game to be relatively comfortable) from the last 14. Lose and we've got a battle to regain momentum. On the same day West Ham play Arsenal. If we win and West Ham lose - we'll have at least an 11 point lead over the team in 7th. If Brighton don't beat Spurs on Saturday then that lead could be 13 points. I mean maybe draws in both of those other games would be ideal - but I think the dream combination would probably be wins for Spurs, Arsenal and us. That would establish a pretty big gap between the Top 5 in the table and the battle for 6th-9th. Whilst wins for West Ham and Brighton might help us in the battle for 4th - I think I'd prefer to get a step closer to fifth. Worst case would probably be wins for Utd, West Ham and Brighton as that makes the gap below us look a bit more insecure. 6th / 7th was my target at the start of the season. Hopefully by the end of next weekend we'll have a big gap to those places and can then focus on the battle for 5th and above. If we can claim a good FA Cup win in midweek (no injuries and not having to expend too much energy) then all the better. I just hope that we don't have an end-to-end belter of a cup tie that goes to extra time and penalties. A nice comfortable 2-0 home win would be perfect. Well actually two nice 2-0 home wins next week would be absolutely superb. It was roughly, where I saw us too....There is still a lot of football to be played, and while we check on the top teams, we still have to travel to the likes Luton, and Wolves, Bournemouth at home, are still tough games. We still have a huge chunk of the season to navigate, and maintaining form is key....hopefully injured returnee's, will help. Its all to play for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterSw Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 38 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Martinez potentially being out for more months is bad news though Bad news for who? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post maqroll Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 (edited) 14 hours ago, HeyAnty said: I know im in minority but id play a weak side in FA cup. Hate the thing, id rather we are out of it this season to help boost our CL chances So for me, the priority list is: 1. Winning the Premier League. Unlikely, but statistically possible. 2. Champions League qualification. Well within our grasp. 3. Winning the FA Cup. It's been way too long since Villa lifted the Cup. Much more prestige than Europa Conference. Less strain on the team than Europa Conference. 4. Winning Europa Conference/Qualifying for Europa League. Nice prize money and shiny trophy but the tangible achievement is somewhat made moot if we qualify for Champions League. Edited February 5 by maqroll 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Stevo985 Posted February 5 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, maqroll said: So for me, the priority list is: 1. Winning the Premier League. Unlikely, but statistically possible. 2. Champions League qualification. Well within our grasp. 3. Winning the FA Cup. It's been way too long since Villa lifted the Cup. Much more prestige than Europa Conference. Less strain on the team than Europa Conference. 4. Winning Europa Conference/Qualifying for Europa League. Nice prize money and shiny trophy but the tangible achievement is somewhat made moot if we qualify for Champions League. I agree with this in a way, but you also have to add in likelihood of us winning I think. Like we could sacrifice everything in pursuit of winning the league, but it almost certainly isn't going to happen. When you think about that in terms of Europa and FA Cup is becomes a more interesting discussion. Id much prefer to win the FA Cup. But we have a far far better chance of winning the europa conference, imo. So I don't think we can prioritise the FA cup over the europa because you're sacrificing the competition you could probably win. It's a tough balance 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, VillaChris said: They'll struggle to get more than 65 points imo. Maybe more if they beat us as that would be three straight wins so momentum with likes of Shaw and Casemiro back. Martinez potentially being out for more months is bad news though. Could see Brighton beating them on the final day and denying them even 7th. So if they beat us, they may get 68 points ? I had 69. So not far off. I hope it IS a lot less, but if they beat us, then it gives them something to fight for and they are still capable of going on decent runs (results wise) annoyingly. The results I predict give them a PPG of just over 2 and it would mean we require a 1.6 PPG to better them, which is pretty low considering where it's been throughout Emery's tenure. We're currently evens for top 4, United are 9-1. Bookies are usually spot on It's just a natural thing though I think to worry about your own teams results and fear the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ender4 Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, WakefieldVillan said: So even the most pessimistic Villa fan would agree that basically it is only Man Utd now that can possibly stop us finishing in the top 5. VILLA can stop Villa finishing in the top 5. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Much like last year, it's in our hands. Unai has guided us through a much tougher stretch last year and I'm doing my best to shake off all the Villa pessimism for our UCL hopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 47 minutes ago, ender4 said: VILLA can stop Villa finishing in the top 5. YEP! For all those Man Utd predictions I've done, it really does boil down to us, it's well and truly in our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lainux Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, DJBOB said: Much like last year, it's in our hands. Unai has guided us through a much tougher stretch last year and I'm doing my best to shake off all the Villa pessimism for our UCL hopes. Last years experience will do players a world of good, they know the objective let's go for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted February 5 VT Supporter Share Posted February 5 We need to try and win the league, odds are against us as city are so strong but with that mentality we should get at least top 4. It's time to look up not down, play with the hope of winning and not the fear of losing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said: Actually big part of it is relying on our favor to ourselves. Win the Conference league and most likely 5th will get to the CL. It would help for sure but think we'd still need 2 or 3 other English teams to go deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, villan95 said: It would help for sure but think we'd still need 2 or 3 other English teams to go deep. If Man U get 4th and we finish 5th and miss out on champs league by a whisker because of Man U's inept farce of a performance in the champions league this year I'm going to go up to OT and go postal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Martinez out for 2 months. That’s gonna do United over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Never mind the top 4 or 5 let’s qualify in the top 1 like we did in 1981, do you want to bet against us? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tomaszk Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Martinez out for 2 months. That’s gonna do United over. Don't scare me like that. **** hell. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Martinez out for 2 months. That’s gonna do United over. Jesus Christ I shat myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Dodgyknees said: Jesus Christ I shat myself. In all honesty a serious injury to a bid player would badly dent our chances. In 1981 we famously only used 13 players and had no real cup runs to distract us so we need to remain fairly injury free, which despite the media noise around other club’s injury problems we haven’t been totally free of injuries up to now, yes it could be worse but Emi and Tyrone would be a big miss for most teams. If it was Liverpool the PL would have given them the points they took off Everton! Edited February 5 by DaveAV1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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