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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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20 minutes ago, Marka Ragnos said:

Fear? No. Respect? Maybe. Acknowledgement that they can beat us? Yes. I feel that with Newcastle, and I'm glad AF we're done with them, tbh. I think they manhandled us both games, and we didn't have good answers. They're pretty rough and sneaky in terms yellow cards, too.I actually have less of that emotion with Man City and Arsenal and Liverpool.

Newcastle got us, twice this year on bad days.

We wiped the floor with them last season at home. Blew them apart.

We played Man City off the park in December and battled bravely to beat Arsenal.

We are one of the best teams in this league and have an elite manager. 

When we go to the Emptyhad, the  Emirates and welcome Spurzzz and Liverpool to VP we should not fear those games at all. 

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9 minutes ago, villaglint said:

Jokes aside what is your working on the maths here? 
 

If Utd beat us next week they are 5 points behind with 14 games to go. Seems like plenty left to play for to me. 

It's a must win game for them. Draw or loss means 8 or 11pt gap and +20 goal difference which is as good as another point clear

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40 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

77% chance of 5th spot currently

Guarantee if we finish 5th it will be 0% chance.

This is Villa and that's how it works, prepare to be disappointed.

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1 minute ago, AshVilla said:

Guarantee if we finish 5th it will be 0% chance.

This is Villa and that's how it works, prepare to be disappointed.

No, that's not how it works in the real world. 

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47 minutes ago, villaglint said:

Jokes aside what is your working on the maths here? 
 

If Utd beat us next week they are 5 points behind with 14 games to go. Seems like plenty left to play for to me. 

Yes so many points to play for. Look how many points we overhauled last season.. 

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23 hours ago, VillaChris said:

People seem to still think this is the title race thread as every single game we don't win is a complete disaster. It really isn't.

As you say we could well make top 4 winning fewer than half our remaining games so posters need to remember that and not throw a strop if we lose to likes of Arsenal and Liverpool in the run in as those games might not matter too much.

I know this sounds simplistic, but every game we play and win is a game less the opponents have to catch up.  Take each game one at a time.

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1 hour ago, villaglint said:

Jokes aside what is your working on the maths here? 
 

If Utd beat us next week they are 5 points behind with 14 games to go. Seems like plenty left to play for to me. 

Don't look at the gap, look at the points needed.

 

Only once in the last 10 years has more than 70 points been needed for 5th place. So let's use 70 as a benchmark for what we need for 5th. usually it's less.

We're already on 46 points. So we need 24 points from 15 games. That's 1.6 PPG. 

We're averaging more or less exactly 2PPG under Emery. You have to go back to Emery's first managerial appointment to find a PPG as low as 1.6

 

I think if you assume a few draws, we need 6 wins from 15 games to get 5th place. Again 6 from 15 is comfortably a lower win percentage than Emery has gotten in any of his managerial roles. It's 40%, and you have to go back 12 years before you get to a managerial role where Emery had less than 50%, let alone 40.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it requires an almost implausible drop in form OR a freak season where the points needed for 5th is ridiculously high (or most likely both) One season it required 75 points for 5th... if Leicester had got 75 points in their league winning season they'd have still won the league. So 75 for 5th is rare.

 

When you take the emotion out of it and just look at the numbers it's just not realistic.

 

 

 

But, as you say, we are Aston Villa. So we'll probably finish 7th

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6 minutes ago, HeyAnty said:

I know this sounds simplistic, but every game we play and win is a game less the opponents have to catch up.  Take each game one at a time.

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46 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

 

Only once in the last 10 years has more than 70 points been needed for 5th place. So let's use 70 as a benchmark for what we need for 5th. usually it's less.

We're already on 46 points. So we need 24 points from 15 games. That's 1.6 PPG. 

We're averaging more or less exactly 2PPG under Emery. You have to go back to Emery's first managerial appointment to find a PPG as low as 1.6

Do you know what a similar benchmark would be for 4th place?

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10 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Do you know what a similar benchmark would be for 4th place?

Last 5 seasons 71, 71, 67, 66, 71 was the total 4th place got

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8 wins has to be the aim with a target of 5 at home and 3 away. 

Home
Man utd, forest, Spurs, wolves, brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool 

Away
Fulham, Luton, west ham, man city, arsenal, Brighton, palace,

We need to get wins on the board in Feb otherwise could leave us with a lot to do when the fixtures pile up and get harder in March and April. Not losing to spurs and Man Utd to a lesser extent is key obviously. 

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They said on commentary the other day that England currently has a 77% chance of getting an extra CL place. So it's looking promising. Still let's just get 4th and not rely on anyone else for favours.

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7 hours ago, AshVilla said:

Guarantee if we finish 5th it will be 0% chance.

This is Villa and that's how it works, prepare to be disappointed.

Yeah.

That 5th place thing was just in case Man Utd or Liverpool finished there.

It won't give CL if we finish 5th

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