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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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In terms of pressure on us we need the Italians dumped out of the CL by mid March which would make a 5th CL spot for PL nearly nailed on. We've 7 PL games between now and then and key ones in there at VP against United and Spurs. 

If Emery can keep us in top 4 and maintain a gap to 6th of 9 or 10 points it's very difficult to lose top 5 from that position with 10 games to go a team in 6th would need to be doing at least 2.1 or 2.2ppg and we'd need to collapse

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It would help if people really and truly accepted that we're not going to win the league. Once you accept that, individual games of dropped points matter much less as whoever finishes 4th and 5th drops loads of points over a season. 

I do agree we need to be getting 4 or 6 points out of the next two though, partly because these are fairly 'easy' fixtures this season and partly because we need to dispel some of the gloom that's gathering in our corner of the Discourse. 

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1 hour ago, ender4 said:

2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 5 matches. 
2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in last 6 matches.

3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in last 8 matches. 

3 cleans sheets in a row. 

Spin it how you like, but the fact remains our drop off in performance has been considerable

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2 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Spin it how you like, but the fact remains our drop off in performance has been considerable

The points don't lie, its a drop off but it ain't considerable. As pointed out earlier and ignored, if we continue this form over the rest of the season we would still get top 4 looking at the last few seasons,  but let's not facts get in the way ay. UTV,  sotc.

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1 hour ago, useless said:

Our fans have become a pack of over priveleged spoilt ungrateful entitled superbrats, like Man City fans have been accused of but without the success, we've shown some good form since Emery came in, and now suddenly we can't have a few less than great results and have to play amazing football every game, other than the Sheffield United game our performances haven't even been that bad, again unless people think we should be dominating teams every game like Man City do or something, nine times out of ten we would have won that Everton game, that wasn't a bad performance, take away Everton's point deduction and they would only be two points behind Newcastle, we didn't have some divine right to just go and win that game comfortably.

And all this after we get a good result away to Chelsea, which whilst is still going to be tough, it keeps us in the cup and gives a better chance of progressing to the next round than I thought when I first saw the draw

And we'd have won that Sheffield United game if just one of the four or five contentious, game-defining refereeing decisions went our way: essentially, on any other day.

So the crux is that despite being pretty damn unlucky infront of goal recently, and missing essential players in Pau, Tielemans and Kamara (whose absences would make any team in the world worse off. it's really not something that requires a huge inquest), we're still picking up points and good results. I don't get the fuss at all.

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6 minutes ago, tinker said:

The points don't lie, its a drop off but it ain't considerable. As pointed out earlier and ignored, if we continue this form over the rest of the season we would still get top 4 looking at the last few seasons,  but let's not facts get in the way ay. UTV,  sotc.

Most of those points were won before our slump. If we carry on scraping draws against teams like sheff utd and everton, we will not get top 4

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3 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Most of those points were won before our slump. If we carry on scraping draws against teams like sheff utd and everton, we will not get top 4

A draw away at Everton isn't that bad a result, they're a mid table team. The home draw to Sheffield Utd was a poor result but we can hopefully rectify that next weekend 

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3 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Most of those points were won before our slump. If we carry on scraping draws against teams like sheff utd and everton, we will not get top 4

I'm with you chap. Lose or even draw against a struggling Newcastle and I think we are well and truely in a slump. It's okay saying we are not losing, but where has last years football gone. No intensity, being dispossed all over the park, McGinn dropping his standard, Ollie on a drought, Diably none existant, there's half your problems right there. After 12 days off I would have expected alot more last night, an at the moment It ain't lookng great for a top 5 finish

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Feel like the expectations from some people are getting a bit unrealistic. 
 

People are correct in saying the last time we played well was probably the Man City game which feels like a long time ago but maybe that performance and also the amount of goals Villa were scoring previously was unsustainable?

I always believe over 38 games it evens out and you finish where you deserve. We probably went through a patch where we over performed and now going through a patch where we are under performing. This is something that happens to every team. Watkins has always been a streaky striker since his been here and I don’t see any reason why that would change. His gone through patches without scoring several times for Villa this is nothing new. 
 

Next thing I expect to keep reading about soon is “we’d be in x position if we didn’t keep getting all these injuries” which again isn’t something I’m gonna buy into if we did fail to qualify for the Champions League. Spurs have been without a lot of their key players for a while and still managed to keep up the pace.

Anyway, hopefully a game against at Villa Park for the first time in a month against  Newcastle should get more positivity in this thread. 

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1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

In terms of pressure on us we need the Italians dumped out of the CL by mid March which would make a 5th CL spot for PL nearly nailed on. We've 7 PL games between now and then and key ones in there at VP against United and Spurs. 

If Emery can keep us in top 4 and maintain a gap to 6th of 9 or 10 points it's very difficult to lose top 5 from that position with 10 games to go a team in 6th would need to be doing at least 2.1 or 2.2ppg and we'd need to collapse

The games against Utd and Newcastle are massive at home. Especially Utd. If we can beat them it will keep that cushion.

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11 minutes ago, RichW said:

Feel like the expectations from some people are getting a bit unrealistic. 
 

People are correct in saying the last time we played well was probably the Man City game which feels like a long time ago but maybe that performance and also the amount of goals Villa were scoring previously was unsustainable?

I always believe over 38 games it evens out and you finish where you deserve. We probably went through a patch where we over performed and now going through a patch where we are under performing. This is something that happens to every team. Watkins has always been a streaky striker since his been here and I don’t see any reason why that would change. His gone through patches without scoring several times for Villa this is nothing new. 
 

Next thing I expect to keep reading about soon is “we’d be in x position if we didn’t keep getting all these injuries” which again isn’t something I’m gonna buy into if we did fail to qualify for the Champions League. Spurs have been without a lot of their key players for a while and still managed to keep up the pace.

Anyway, hopefully a game against at Villa Park for the first time in a month against  Newcastle should get more positivity in this thread. 

Don't agree with any of this.

Last year we were quality nearly every game, the only excuse, can be the further injuries we have sustained including Pau. There's no excuse beating Man City like we did, an not seeing that performance again for the rest  of the season.

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21 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

an at the moment It ain't lookng great for a top 5 finish

We are 8 points and significant GD above sixth place 

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1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

Monitor our recent form.

6th place - West Ham last drew with Sheff Utd and Brighton last two league games

7th place a further 3 points behind is Brighton whose recent league form is 7 points in 18

8th place - Man U - 5 points in 18.

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Just now, nick76 said:

6th place - West Ham last drew with Sheff Utd and Brighton last two league games

7th place a further 3 points behind is Brighton whose recent league form is 7 points in 18

8th place - Man U - 5 points in 18.

We will see. But there is no doubt we need to pick up our form.

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Just now, foreveryoung said:

We will see. But there is no doubt we need to pick up our form.

Oh I agree but we have 11 points in 18, got through third round of FA Cup, and a draw at Chelsea whose home record for the last few months is impressive. So our performances haven’t been great we are still getting results.  Our performances should improve soon hopefully.

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15 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Don't agree with any of this.

Last year we were quality nearly every game, the only excuse, can be the further injuries we have sustained including Pau. There's no excuse beating Man City like we did, a not seeing that performance again for the rest  of the season.

Last year we had no mid week games and also teams didn’t really respect us that much. Definitely didn’t have the approach of Sheff Utd, Everton or Brentford last season for sure. 
 

Teams see Villa as a bit of scalp this season, last season they didn’t. Not sure why you are bringing up last season.  

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