Race for Champions League - 2023/2024

[Pongo Waring]

I think we can get 9 points in our next 4 games

[Pongo Waring]

Neville not a believer in us 
 

 

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Pongo Waring said:

I think we can get 9 points in our next 4 games

Brentford is far more winnable than it was a few weeks ago. I was dreading that fixture given it's on back of Bosnia trip but ultimately we've qualified and just need a point to top the group so not like we need to fly everyone over (think 2-3 key players will stay in U.K) and they will be missing Mbeumo and some key midfielders.

Of course they will low block just as Wolves and Forest did so won't be a Spurs type basketball match. We're well overdue to score first in an away league game so I'm hoping we come out strong for that and score in first 20 minutes and that's a game we can grind out a 0-1.

After that unless we get complacent we really should be beating Sheffield United and Burnley in the manner we beat Luton and Fulham.

So leaves the trip to Old Trafford and already that feels a very good time in the season to be playing them.

[DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth]

55 minutes ago, Pongo Waring said:

Neville not a believer in us 
 

 

They say they see us, but they don’t. Long may it continue.

[tomsky_11]

2 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

I still can't believe how well we're doing and would love it if we managed to qualify. A long long way to go yet though.

It's higher than that. 89% chance of top 5, with it being pretty likely that England gets one of the extra spots.

[tomsky_11]

On 01/12/2023 at 15:11, tomsky_11 said:

We only took 5 points last season from the equivalent of the 7 fixtures we have this month. So plenty of room to improve. Could lose to City and Arsenal as still have the opportunity to be as much as 10 points up on last season's games (which would put us 12 up for the season). Even taking 8 to 10 points would be an improvement and not a complete disaster.

7 points already from the first three of the December fixtures. Puts us 8 points up on last season in like-for-like fixtures, so only need to match results from last season for remainder of this one to reach 69 points which should get us 5th and possibly even 4th. This is made up of 6 Gerrard/Danks games, from which we took 4 points, and 16 Emery games from which we took 30 points. So plenty of scope to go beyond 69 points.

[tomsky_11]

On 27/11/2023 at 10:50, tomsky_11 said:

Adding another graph to the mix, here's my 65 point season results projection based on fixture difficulty with 60 and 70 point adjusted lines, vs. actual point and a projection at the original 65-point trend.

Currently we are 5 points ahead of the 65 point line, 3 ahead of 70 point line, with the original projection for remainder of season getting a 70 point finish and almost certain CL qualification if it drops to 5th. Continuing our over performance on the original projection, we'd be looking at a 79 point finish.

Now 8/9 points ahead of my 65 point projection, so looking at a 73/74 point finish. Continuing current level of overperformance on the projection would get us to 86 points.

On 27/11/2023 at 10:50, tomsky_11 said:

Xmas period to Winter Break - 8 games, 13/14 points, 1.6-1.8ppg (bou MNC ARS bre SHU mnu BUR eve)

City and Arsenal toughest of this run, but both at home might help us get something. Might not need it though as plenty of opportunities to get points elsewhere, so long as we can perform away. Should be looking at maximum 6 from Sheff Utd and Burnley at home.

Already got half these points from first 3 games.

[Leeroy]

9 hours ago, Pongo Waring said:

Neville not a believer in us 
 

 

I rate Gary Neville as a pundit but that is foolish. No chance of title I tend to agree with, although could come back to bite him, but surprised if we make top 4 - that is a stupid thing to say.

 

Spurs are probably the closest challengers but on paper we are just as good if not better than them and already 5 points ahead of them having already got the away game against them out the way. Man United look absolutely appalling, I don't see them getting many points in their next four games (three of them away) and think they'll be cut adrift by new year. Maybe a new manager bounce will help if they sack Ten Hag but I don't rate them at al. Newcastle's away form is worse than ours and they are already 9 points adrift, I think they finish 6th or 7th. 

 

We are clear favourites for 4th at this stage. Now of course we could f*ck it up, but it is in our hands. We are averaging over 2 points a game under Unai for over a year so this is not a purple patch, plus we have quality in most positions so we are rightfully up there and not overachieving. The only reason I could say for being surprised if we make top 4 is those other sides (Newcastle, Tottenham, Man Utd) have made top 4 in recent times so have more experience of lasting the race than we do. 

[tomsky_11]

8 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

It's higher than that. 89% chance of top 5, with it being pretty likely that England gets one of the extra spots.

Now 92.5% chance of top 5 since last update.

[mjmooney]

I think what we are saying is, OK, nothing is guaranteed, BUT it would take a collapse of MASSIVE proportions for us not to qualify for CL now. And I can't see that happening with Emery in charge. 

[Enda]

33 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

I think what we are saying is, OK, nothing is guaranteed, BUT it would take a collapse of MASSIVE proportions for us not to qualify for CL now. And I can't see that happening with Emery in charge. 

I think the world is much more uncertain than some others.

I put the probability of Top 4 at about 60%. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if we came 5th or 6th.

And 5th or 6th would still represent an excellent season for us. Best in years, especially considering the added European games.

Hope I’m wrong. But a little bit of sober judgement will make it easier the next time we get turned over by Forest or whoever.

[CVByrne]

11 hours ago, DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth said:

They say they see us, but they don’t. Long may it continue.

Experience tells everyone not biased that we are not in a title challenge, but we are in a Champions League challenge. City always start slowly like this and then power home after the turn of the year. We've Liverpool back as a title challenge force, we've Arsenal strengthening from last season. So unlike Leicester's win there are 3 strong title contenders who are experienced in the March to May crunch period to juggle Europe and the pressure of the title challenge. 

We lack that experience and have been lucky with injuries more or less. We had the opportunity to replace Mings/Buendia in our squad for the season as the transfer window was still open. In came loans Zaniolo/Lenglet. We've had no injuries to the key team who've been on this run. The worrying statistic is we've used the least amount of players in the League this season, of all the 20 teams we rely on the fewest core players.

There are all the signs there for us to drop away. We could (and almost certainly will) get some injuries. Can we lose two of Watkins, Luiz, McGinn, Kamara, Torres, Martinez for 12-15 games and it not having a big hit to our performance. We would rely on fewer top players and tire them out too. 

I think Top 5 is 100% on for us and that has to be the teams main aim. We get CL and that can (and will) be huge for the club. 

[DakotaVilla]

We should just enjoy the ride and not get too carried away. So much football left to be played.

We are only two losses away from being behind Spurs again so let’s keep going game by game. If someone offered me fourth right now I’d take it. If someone offered fourth and a trophy I wouldn’t even hesitate in taking it.

 

[Captain_Townsend]

Lucky with Inuries? Are you for real? Four of our most important players uave been our for about 90% of the games we have played to this point.

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

[MotoMkali]

On 09/12/2023 at 20:50, viivvaa66 said:

We have now won 15 home games in a row for the first time in the club's history.

We have 17 points more than we had last season after 16 games.

Last season we reached 35 points after 26 games, in other words we have a 10 game lead on last season.

We started the season below the 2ppg line, but have gradually improved our form, and are now on 2.1875 points per game, if that continue we will end the season with 83 points. Add a few more points and we could win the league.

Our remaining matches this year are: Brentford(a), SheffieldU(h), ManU(a) and Burnley(h). The two home games, should give us 6 points. The away games are tricky, but Brentford aren't as good as last year, and ManU seems to lose to all the top teams. If we get all 12 points, it is well possible we would be top of the table.

 

Brentford have an injury crisis and will be without Mbuemo though we will be without Luiz. 

[kurtsimonw]

Yeah we've been one of the worst hit teams really, 40% of our first XI from last season have barely kicked a ball and we're nearly half way through

[MotoMkali]

14 hours ago, romavillan said:

If one of them had to win it though I'd have preferred the geordies, would have meant 6 point cushion to 5th. Still though 5 points clear at this stage is amazing. Get a top class RB, some better cover at DM (Donk was fine though against Arsenal TBH) and Moreno and JJ back to full fitness and form and we'll be even stronger going into the second half of the season.

I think it would be better for us if united remained in European competition tbh. They are poorly run and have basically infinite money anyway so it doesn't really matter whether they make Europe financially. Newcastle are well run and will spend every single penny they can and probably several they can't. It's better if they lose out on the 20-30 mil in revenue from being in the europa league. 

[MotoMkali]

3 hours ago, Leeroy said:

I rate Gary Neville as a pundit but that is foolish. No chance of title I tend to agree with, although could come back to bite him, but surprised if we make top 4 - that is a stupid thing to say.

 

Spurs are probably the closest challengers but on paper we are just as good if not better than them and already 5 points ahead of them having already got the away game against them out the way. Man United look absolutely appalling, I don't see them getting many points in their next four games (three of them away) and think they'll be cut adrift by new year. Maybe a new manager bounce will help if they sack Ten Hag but I don't rate them at al. Newcastle's away form is worse than ours and they are already 9 points adrift, I think they finish 6th or 7th. 

 

We are clear favourites for 4th at this stage. Now of course we could f*ck it up, but it is in our hands. We are averaging over 2 points a game under Unai for over a year so this is not a purple patch, plus we have quality in most positions so we are rightfully up there and not overachieving. The only reason I could say for being surprised if we make top 4 is those other sides (Newcastle, Tottenham, Man Utd) have made top 4 in recent times so have more experience of lasting the race than we do. 

Not just quality in most positions a depth of quality at CB, arguably RB (if you counting Konsa and Cash), Definitely LB and in our 3 support attacking Roles with Mcginn, Ramsey, Tielemans, Bailey, Diaby and Zaniolo. 

Really we only need 3 players to have top quality depth which is a new starting RB, a better backup keeper and a better quality CDM than Dendoncker (who is more than serviceable against better teams just underwhelming vs the bottom 10)

Then the only questionable depth would be at backup ST but we have a wonderkid to play there and guys like Diaby, Traore and Zaniolo can all have a go there too. 

[Enda]

18 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

Birmingham-gitis.

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, Enda said:

I think the world is much more uncertain than some others.

I put the probability of Top 4 at about 60%. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if we came 5th or 6th.

And 5th or 6th would still represent an excellent season for us. Best in years, especially considering the added European games.

Hope I’m wrong. But a little bit of sober judgement will make it easier the next time we get turned over by Forest or whoever.

If we equal Emery's career worst run of 22 games, we get 25 more points and finish on 60. Decent chance of 7th again.

If we equal our results from last season for remainder of this one (which include six Gerrard/Danks games that got us 4 points), we'll finish on 69 points. We'd be unlucky to not get 5th with this total, and would have a chance of 4th.

If we equal Emery's career average points over 22 games, we get to 74 by the end of the season. We'd be unlucky to not be 4th. 5th pretty much guaranteed.

If we maintain Emery's record over the last 41 games for the remainder of the season, it's an 80 point finish. 4th guaranteed, reasonable chance of 3rd, small chance of 2nd.

11 home games left, 7 of which against bottom half sides, 3 against sides chasing us for 4th in Newcastle, Man Utd and Spurs. We should be banking at least  20 points from those and probably more.

Our remaining away games are tougher, but we might only be needed around 1ppg from those to get 4th/5th. Maintaining our current "poor" away form gets us another 15 points. That plus doing the minimum I'd expect at home gets us to 70.