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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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2 hours ago, Oaks said:

Im not worried theyve scraped past luton, Sheff united, Brentford and Fulham by the finest of margins getting spanked by decent teams in between.

In December they play all of Newcastle, Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and us in a four week period so they'll be losing some of those games for sure. I think they'll struggle away to Everton aswell who have massively improved from the first month of the season.

Way to look at it they've won 6 of their last 7 prem games and if Brighton beat Sheffield United at home they'll only be 7th so how low will they drop when they actually have a 1 win in 5 run?

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17 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

Unless they go into the Europa. Spurs are struggling now and don't have Europe. I think continual intensity in the way they play is a problem for both squads. We would have the same problem playing 100 miles an hour continually too imo.

Liverpool have had the same problem under Klopp. They usually have had a little more depth to deal with it than Newcastle or Spurs, but arguably at cost them at the last hurdle when they were going for the quad a couple years ago, and they've typically had off-years after their best seasons because they can't do it every year.

 

17 hours ago, Villarocker said:

I was watching us against AZ in the week and thinking about the way in which we build our play from the back with its slow and deliberate pace. Us dictating the pace of games pretty much means we exert ourselves as much as we want, pretty much. 

Unai evolved his style mostly in Spain. People used to say that the Spanish and Italian leagues were slower than the German and English leagues because of the hotter weather. Maybe there's still some truth to it. Compare to Guardiola, contrast to Klopp. City play a lot slower than Liverpool do, which is why they've been able to sustain the success. It's not that Guardiola is "better" than Klopp tactically, it's because Klopp's system is more demanding physically.

 

Edited by TomC
Fixed typo
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1 hour ago, Villarocker said:

You make a very good point, mate. 

I was watching us against AZ in the week and thinking about the way in which we build our play from the back with its slow and deliberate pace. Us dictating the pace of games pretty much means we exert ourselves as much as we want, pretty much. 

I think this philosophy will help us keep players energy levels at a good enough level throughout the season. 

We also have some decent quality on the bench. People slagging off Tielemans endlessly but this is a guy with over 100 prem starts in side that finished 5th twice. He's barely played any serious minutes so far in the prem although that will change once we hit December. Bailey as usual getting flak but his goals and assists ratio is pretty good in the prem this season, I'd like to see him start again tomorrow.

Moreno and Ramsey was electric for us down the left for final three minutes, that combination has not played a single minute together this season. Will be huge to get both back and fully fit for the December schedule as that will be brutal.

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9 hours ago, useless said:

Before we start celebrating Spurs and Newcastle losing, or thinking about Spurs after the international break:angry: I'm bloody sick of hearing people moan about Southgate, and I don't even like him as a manager myself, we need to worry about beating Fulham first, we've had numerous games this season, Forest, Wolves, Everton and Legia in the cups,  where it's been taken for granted that we would win but have come unstuck, and this run at Villa Park going to come to an end at some point, runs like that often end when least expecting it, we should win, but have to guard against complacency as that could be our worst enemy.

Was it taken for granted that we'd win all those games?

Forest - a game of few opportunities where Forest scored from two very low percentage chances. Also, they don't tend to lose many at home even when they're not playing well. I think we failed to deal with their physicality, especially in midfield, and we had a ref (Gillett) who likes to let things go.
Wolves - Looking like a good point now that Spurs and City have lost there (and Newcastle should have). We could easily have won it in the dying minutes.
Legia - Shuffled the pack too much (Emery had to at least try playing more of the second-stringers) and learned the lessons from it.
Everton - We didn't look to be taking it that seriously (Olsen and Dendoncker on the teamsheet are good indicators of whether the game is a priority).

I agree that we should definitely beat Fulham if we play to our potential, though.

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10 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

Spurs and Newcastle's style of play is starting to hurt them already imo. Playing at the tempo they do continually isn't the way to do well in this league, Leeds found that out under Bielsa. It's a pretty good way to wreck your squad if it's not deep enough. I'm starting to think this is where Emery is going to come into his own in managing the lads. The slower tempo at times and ball retention is 100% a benefit in not having our players run into the ground. We pick our moments, Spurs and Newcastle just get at it all the time and I'm thinking it's not helping them.    

The Leeds comparison is really valid, I think:
Leeds 20-21: 'Fittest team in the league, Murderball(tm), they'll give anybody a game and won't stop running etc.'
Leeds 21-22: Most games missed due to injury by any team in the league.
Newcastle 22-23: 'Intensity is our identity'
Newcastle 23-24: Most injuries in the league (10 currently)

The way it's being portrayed in the media though is that all these injuries are 'bad luck'/inevitable when you're new to Europe rather than potentially a by-product of the high intensity style.
With regard to us, I think if anything we're playing even slower in the Conference League than the PL. Even taking into account AZ's more pragmatic approach on Thursday night, we only decided to go up a gear when they scored. It definitely seems to be a conscious effort to preserve energy for the rest of the season ahead.

Edited by oishiiniku_uk
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1 hour ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

I think if anything we're playing even slower in the Conference League than the PL.

Martinez vs AZ last game was borderline hilarious. He was walking the ball halfway to the halfway line unpressured several times

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11 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Newcastle will finish 3rd beating AC Milan I think so that's better for us if they have to play europa league from Feb onwards.

I think Newcastle and Man Utd going to Europa could be in our favor, no one goes out because of the PL ranking, and them having something to play for in Europe so they don’t only focus on the league. Then we depend in ourselves to win the conference, City and Arsenal to go far, then 5 teams in Europa going far with hopefully a Liverpool win for that cup. That would probably make 5th goes to CL while all Europe teams keep playing and not only focused on the league. 

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I think Newcastle are a lesson in when champions league football comes too soon. They don't have a squad that is used to playing twice a week and when they do, the level of competition is huge. No opportunity to play a weakened side when you've got psg, Milan and dortmund. I think not just the physical but also the mental side of the competition. I was thinking of Dan Burn scoring a mid week goal against PSG, he probably felt like it was a cup final and wanted to celebrate. But really he needs to put the performance aside and start to prep and train. 

We need to tread the very careful balance of building over time a high quality squad that all knows how to play the same way, the mentality to take the lows and highs all at the same time as not letting top 4 clubs take our players and derail us. 

 

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17 hours ago, Villarocker said:

You make a very good point, mate. 

I was watching us against AZ in the week and thinking about the way in which we build our play from the back with its slow and deliberate pace. Us dictating the pace of games pretty much means we exert ourselves as much as we want, pretty much. 

I think this philosophy will help us keep players energy levels at a good enough level throughout the season. 

This is one of the reasons why I get frustrated when people say we need to up the tempo.  This is how Emery plays and over a season his record suggests that it works.  It also means that our recovery time is much better than teams who play at 100mph.

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4 points from our next two away games and I'm 99.9% we will be in the top 4 as Spurs have Man. City away after playing us.

Of course we could just beat Spurs and confirm it then.

What a lovely statement that would be going into the Man.City-Arsenal double header to the wider football world.

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1 minute ago, It's Your Round said:

A nice four point cushion over sixth place going into the international break. It’s going well. I’m shocked that it’s manure in sixth though.

They've played 7 home games, that's reason enough. Infact I've mentioned this before but given we've only played six I really don't understand why we've got two away games straight after the break.

Really how difficult is it on a fixture computer to get all teams playing six at home and six away after 12 games. It irks me we're going pretty much half a season playing fewer home games compared to our direct rivals this season especially when we feel invincible at VP currently.

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Just now, Panto_Villan said:

After losing to Forest I’m surprised (although obviously delighted) that we’re still in the mix tbh.

But we’ve got to take at least some points off the big teams we’ve got coming up if we want to stay serious CL contenders, I think.

We've beaten Spurs twice in six months under UE. They will be missing half their regular outfield team v us (Romero, Van De Ven, Bissouma and Maddison) so feels the ideal match at a good time in the season to make a statement win.

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6 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

I’m shocked that it’s manure in sixth though.

I'm not.

They still got decent players.

To see them getting over the line against the bottom half teams doesn't surprise me.

There's a big gap between the top half and lower half in terms of quality.

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Looking at the table, it's nice we're in the race for top 4 and it's nearly December, but the most satisfying thing is the 5 point gap to 7th. Finishing sixth for us would be a great season, especially if we can do really well in a cup as well 

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