Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[VillaChris]

7 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

Also, I think football is all about trophies and success. We can't turn our noses up at the idea of potentially competing and winning the conference league in the hope we perform better in the league next year if we're not in it. 

I get the OP's angle though. 

Look at the teams West Ham have played. You can't say that's going to take endless amounts out of us if we have enough depth.

Europa league has much better quality so that would be a challenge especially with the CL dropouts after xmas but we have the best manager around.

I think that's important aswell. Emery isn't some wet behind the ears inexperienced manager who'll have no idea how to rotate between league and europe, he knows how many players will be needed for the summer if we make it.

[BOF]

18 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

I'm pretty sure there are exactly the same number of fixtures in the Europa League as conference league, as they follow the same format. The only difference is that there is a greater chance we would progress to the latter stages of the conference. However on present form and emery's success we might well go far in the Europa League as well! 

The Europa League is a more important competition which is why my question was only about the Conference. I'd definitely take Europa League.

[Vive_La_Villa]

We’d be favourites to win the Conference.

[Vive_La_Villa]

21 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Look at the teams West Ham have played. You can't say that's going to take endless amounts out of us if we have enough depth.

Europa league has much better quality so that would be a challenge especially with the CL dropouts after xmas but we have the best manager around.

I think that's important aswell. Emery isn't some wet behind the ears inexperienced manager who'll have no idea how to rotate between league and europe, he knows how many players will be needed for the summer if we make it.

Apparently he struggled in the league with Villarreal whilst doing so well in Europe. It’s a hard balance to find unless you have a ridiculously strong squad or get very lucky with injuries.

[VillaChris]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Apparently he struggled in the league with Villarreal whilst doing so well in Europe. It’s a hard balance to find unless you have a ridiculously strong squad or get very lucky with injuries.

Just had a look, 58 points in 20/21 and 7th when they won the europa so roughly what we're doing currently.

59 points and 7th again last season when making CL semi final. With that they actually had a very slow start, drew their first 4 league games before even playing their first CL match.

Villareal also don't have the economic model to have a squad of 20 current internationals, we can so I expect that to be address further in the summer as last few weeks have shown what could happen if we get 3-4 key injuries at same time with lack of rotation.

[Pinebro]

Think we might finish above Chelsea lads.

[nick76]

Arsenal, if they do win today as looking likely, still have really good confidence, still have the title to chase, so it’s good for us as they’ll be fully up to beat Brighton a week on Sunday at the Emirates.

[lainux]

22 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Arsenal, if they do win today as looking likely, still have really good confidence, still have the title to chase, so it’s good for us as they’ll be fully up to beat Brighton a week on Sunday at the Emirates.

Need Arsenal to keep City on their toes until the end! City also play Brighton last but one game, need the title challenge to go down to the wire!

[Raymond]

There are the things I think about instead of working, so I might as well subject the rest of you to it.

Brighton has United, Everton, Arsenal, Newcastle, Southhampton, and City before playing us. If Brighton wins the two they should and then picks up some points from the four they shouldn't, things look really bad for us.

That said, it would not be that surprising if Brighton loses four of their next six before playing us on the final day. If that happens, they will be on at most 58 points.

I am hopeful we get at least four from our next three, which would also put us on 58. Maybe we can do more -- certainly not scared of Spurs right now -- but four seems reasonable.

Assuming we are both on 58, we would have to win to get 7th while they could play for a draw assuming the goal differences do not dramatically change by then. 

Despite what I put earlier, if they win 2, draw 2, and lose 2 and we get the four points I expect, the final day will be exactly the same as if they lost all four of the games against the CL teams. We have to win. They can play for a draw. 

The least likely scenario in my mind is we are ahead of them going into the final day. It could happen if we beat Spurs or Liverpool -- Wolves is a must-win at this point -- and Brighton loses or draws the four games against the CL teams, but it seems unlikely to me.

Because of goal difference, it is highly unlikely to me we are clear before that final game since we would need two more points from three than they get from six, but wild stuff happens at the end of the season. If we win all three it is possible. 

I was thinking Spurs would be our out, but their run-in is so favorable. At least Leeds will likely be fighting for their lives on the final day. We beat them and we could have a shot, especially since we are close in goal difference. It seems more likely to me we finish ahead of Brighton despite the games in hand, though. 

I am trying to stay positive, but this looks like a tough road. We definitely have outs, but they rely on Brighton losing to the CL sides, Spurs falling apart more than they already have, or us winning three in a row. 

I think ultimately we are going to regret letting SG go for so long and that game against Leicester, but even if we don't get Europa, to even be in this position right now is amazing. 

 

[VillaChris]

Good Arsenal are winning again, we need them motivated and confident when they play Brighton in a few games time. Brighton of course will give them ten times harder game than this abomination of a Chelsea so should be a cracker.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Pinebro said:

Think we might finish above Chelsea lads.

First time since 1997.

[jayEm]

2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Apparently he struggled in the league with Villarreal whilst doing so well in Europe. It’s a hard balance to find unless you have a ridiculously strong squad or get very lucky with injuries.

Extra games midweek must just make planning for individual matches harder too, right? Less time to focus the squad on a particular opponent.

[MaVilla]

1 hour ago, Pinebro said:

Think we might finish above Chelsea lads.

Unironically, first time we have done so since the 96/97 season, so literally quarter of a century since the last time we did finish above them.

lol.

[Vive_La_Villa]

We all desperately want Europe but if we don’t get it I genuinely think we can get a 4th place finish next season. Something special is happening at the club. 

[M_Afro]

I wonder how the Alemany news will be greeted by the players? It could give them a little extra boost as they approach the last few matches. They’ve looked a little flat the last couple of matches and we need to rediscover our hunger against the Wolves. Hopefully this helps.

[omariqy]

1 hour ago, M_Afro said:

I wonder how the Alemany news will be greeted by the players? It could give them a little extra boost as they approach the last few matches. They’ve looked a little flat the last couple of matches and we need to rediscover our hunger against the Wolves. Hopefully this helps.

Don’t think they will care tbh. 

[SecretVillaScout]

2 hours ago, M_Afro said:

I wonder how the Alemany news will be greeted by the players? It could give them a little extra boost as they approach the last few matches. They’ve looked a little flat the last couple of matches and we need to rediscover our hunger against the Wolves. Hopefully this helps.

The camp will be very happy with the appointment, they will be smiling, celebrating, and singing "We got Alemany, We got Alemany, We got Alemany". Captain Mcginn will wearing his Chicken Suit in at the Belfry.

Edited May 3, 2023 by SecretVillaScout

[CVByrne]

On 02/05/2023 at 10:23, BOF said:

Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season.

Best way to put it is. I'm neutral to qualification to ECL or coming 8th. The ECL can give us a path the EL and winning a trophy. It does run the risk of overworking our squad and imo more importantly restricting the amount of Emery prep time for PL opposition.

Having the added time during the week to focus on that weekends opposition is an advantage Emery is excellent at exploiting. 

[MWARLEY2]

3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

We all desperately want Europe but if we don’t get it I genuinely think we can get a 4th place finish next season. Something special is happening at the club. 

The feeling now is that there isnt a top 6 set in stone.  I think its going to be 7 from 10 or 11 for Europe 

Right now you can imagine next season that there is a fight for Europe with Man City Arsenal Man Utd Spurs Chelsea Liverpool Villa Brighton Newcastle and maybe even West Ham with a new manager. Brentford if they continue to be so clever and competitive.  

As the quality increases so does the ability for anyone to beat anyone. 

Different clubs are going to get in Europe every year . 

[RichW]

1 hour ago, MWARLEY2 said:

The feeling now is that there isnt a top 6 set in stone.  I think its going to be 7 from 10 or 11 for Europe 

Right now you can imagine next season that there is a fight for Europe with Man City Arsenal Man Utd Spurs Chelsea Liverpool Villa Brighton Newcastle and maybe even West Ham with a new manager. Brentford if they continue to be so clever and competitive.  

As the quality increases so does the ability for anyone to beat anyone. 

Different clubs are going to get in Europe every year . 

Last few years have shown it's not really a big 6 now your right. There's a big 6 commercially but not with the league table. With Newcastle now there is already 7 clubs trying to compete for 6 positions. Leicester and West Ham have shown other teams can have a season or two where they challenge but it's so difficult to sustain it over a period of time. Be interesting to see which of big teams will have a poor season next season to open the door.