Pongo's Socks Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Only negative I see is yet more prem games not at 3 on a Saturday. I bloody hate Sunday games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvonVillain Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, Pongo's Socks said: Only negative I see is yet more prem games not at 3 on a Saturday. I bloody hate Sunday games Yep.It's crap when it's your team; I like it when it's a big game elsewhere however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted March 24, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2023 On 21/03/2023 at 12:02, tomsky_11 said: Strength of remaining schedule based on home/away splits of opponent's ppg rather than total. The middle section "Schedule (points)" is the expected remaining points earned in remaining games (and then expected final points when this is added to current points) based on average total points earned per match minus the average opponent's ppg. The right hand side section (also titled "Schedule (points)") is the same as the middle section but flexed based on % over/underperformance of the listed team compared to the average expected home or away ppg. And here's the same summary, but figures for Brighton, Chelsea and us are based on performance under current management only. Obviously our excellent away form under Emery is skewing this summary a fair bit. However you look at it, Chelsea have the hardest schedule and need the biggest turnaround in form to even get close to top 7. Not just our excellent away form, but the annual flip of form, as relegation-threatened sides start picking up more points than normal, and mid-table sides start playing in flip flops, the expected points will get further skewed. We've a tough run-in in terms of league position of opponent, but I actually don't think it's as tough as that. Brentford and Fulham are not what they were. Neither are Newcastle. Chelsea have been very poor for them all season. So I think if we play to our capabilities, many sides above us are there for the picking on the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewiek2 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 22 hours ago, tinker said: I reckon top 8 is looking like a decent bet it's not that bad a bet for this season either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted March 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, stewiek2 said: it's not that bad a bet for this season either. Well that depends on other teams falling away, Chelsea is an important game, if we're gonna get top 8 then we can't lose against them and even a disjointed Chelsea, with the squad they have, is a very hard game. (Refs decisions) I think we miss 'character'in the middle of the park, it's a tough call to drop one of them because they all play well but we miss a drive to win there, a mouth. For me need this before we can win games like Chelsea away. I'm happy to proven wrong though but I have strong feeling Emery will bring another midfielder in this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ejs1111 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Keyblade said: I love him. I can't believe he's our coach sometimes. When I look at Spurs and their search for a manager, it's crazy to think "we, Aston Villa have Unai Emery", a better manager than they can realistically hope to get. I hope we make the most of this opportunity around a decade ago we were on equal footing with Spurs. We then made poor managerial hires, acquired poor players, etc...and started our slide down to eventual relegation. Spurs (to their credit) went the opposite direction- climbed the table and consistently challenged and qualified for Champions League. In my opinion we are seeing the beginning of a transition period where Villa are ascending and 1-2 of the big6 sides are going to fall. Everything moves in cycles- my guess is Villa and 1 of Newcastle/Brighton/Fulham/Brentford will ascend with Spurs/Liverpool/Chelsea falling to mid table obscurity for awhile. My money is on Spurs and Chelsea to slide and struggle to claim top7. Spurs are poorly run atm- swapping managers too often and its hurting their ability to build a squad. Chelsea are now run by an owner with a fantasy team mentality, they too will struggle to build and maintain a cohesive squad. Without Europe- eventually both clubs would be forced to have fire sales and rebuild. Are they smart enough/capable of doing it? I don't think so with current upper management staff. We are extremely lucky to have the owners we have and UE managing us. Long may it continue! Edited March 31, 2023 by ejs1111 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, ejs1111 said: around a decade ago we were on equal footing with Spurs. We then made poor managerial hires, acquired poor players, etc...and started our slide down to eventual relegation. Spurs (to their credit) went the opposite direction- climbed the table and consistently challenged and qualified for Champions League. In my opinion we are seeing the beginning of a transition period where Villa are ascending and 1-2 of the big6 sides are going to fall. Everything moves in cycles- my guess is Villa and 1 of Newcastle/Brighton/Fulham/Brentford will ascend with Spurs/Liverpool/Chelsea falling to mid table obscurity for awhile. My money is on Spurs and Chelsea to slide and struggle to claim top7. Spurs are poorly run atm- swapping managers too often and its hurting their ability to build a squad. Chelsea are now run by an owner with a fantasy team mentality, they too will struggle to build and maintain a cohesive squad. Without Europe- eventually both clubs would be forced to have fire sales and rebuild. Are they smart enough/capable of doing it? I don't think so with current upper management staff. We are extremely lucky to have the owners we have and UE managing us. Long may it continue! I think that's optimistic imo. It might happen for 1 or 2 seasons (like with West Ham), but the big 6 are solidified as long as they continue to rake in the revenue that they do. They always fail upwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvonVillain Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Keyblade said: I think that's optimistic imo. It might happen for 1 or 2 seasons (like with West Ham), but the big 6 are solidified as long as they continue to rake in the revenue that they do. They always fail upwards. History tells us different. There's a recency bias thinking otherwise. There's no doubt money does A LOT of talking these days, but big money clubs can only continue to fail for so long until the money stops pouring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, ejs1111 said: around a decade ago we were on equal footing with Spurs. We then made poor managerial hires, acquired poor players, etc...and started our slide down to eventual relegation. Spurs (to their credit) went the opposite direction- climbed the table and consistently challenged and qualified for Champions League. In my opinion we are seeing the beginning of a transition period where Villa are ascending and 1-2 of the big6 sides are going to fall. Everything moves in cycles- my guess is Villa and 1 of Newcastle/Brighton/Fulham/Brentford will ascend with Spurs/Liverpool/Chelsea falling to mid table obscurity for awhile. My money is on Spurs and Chelsea to slide and struggle to claim top7. Spurs are poorly run atm- swapping managers too often and its hurting their ability to build a squad. Chelsea are now run by an owner with a fantasy team mentality, they too will struggle to build and maintain a cohesive squad. Without Europe- eventually both clubs would be forced to have fire sales and rebuild. Are they smart enough/capable of doing it? I don't think so with current upper management staff. We are extremely lucky to have the owners we have and UE managing us. Long may it continue! I think that's optimistic imo. It might happen for 1 or 2 seasons (like with West Ham), but the big 6 are solidified as long as they continue to rake in the revenue that they do. They always fail upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWARLEY2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 We havent finished top half for is it 12 years now ? To get into a European position in the league is a huge task. BUT we hear all the time about our huge ambition and project that successive managers and players buy into. They must have some kind of plan and they arent the kind of people that do pie in the sky really . Too heavyweight for that. After the abomination that was Gerrard and his carving up of the long term plan for supposed short term gain it is great to have a manager that i think will toe the party line while increasing standards everywhere. Not saying it. Just doing it. We will be back on the youngish player with big upside plan i reckon which is the only way a club with our limited spending power ( ffp not the owners ) can build upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMitch Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 6 hours ago, Keyblade said: I think that's optimistic imo. It might happen for 1 or 2 seasons (like with West Ham), but the big 6 are solidified as long as they continue to rake in the revenue that they do. They always fail upwards. Agreed. The Big 6 have such a huge advantage over us from a revenue perspective that even if they did fall off for a year or two, all it will take is a new manager and 250 million in new signings to pass us by again. The only way for us to gatecrash the establishment and possibly add ourselves to the mix permanently is a sustained period of success for ~5 seasons. Meaning, we need to be regulars in Europe and consistently challenging for Champions League footy, with a couple of deep cup runs/wins thrown in there. This raises our profile around the world, increases our fanbase, which increases our advertising/revenue generation, and allows us more room to compete on the FFP front. Luckily, Emery seems to be 100% bought into the project from a long term prospective and isn't just looking at transfers with the next 6 months in mind, like so many of our past managers have. We need to be very calculated with our signings and be deliberate with who we recruit from this point forward. Guimaraes, for example, has been an outstanding signing for Newcastle and he would walk into any top 6 team's midfield. So much of their recent success has been because of what he brings to their squad. We need to make sure that our next 6-7 ins are all of similar Champions League quality to him. We have the bones of a good squad, but we still lack serious elite talent throughout. Based on Emery's comments from his presser today, he knows we're going to have to be patient in this regard and will need to continue to build slowly year over year in order to attract elite players to the club like Joao Felix, whom he was using as someone just out of our reach at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 6 hours ago, KMitch said: Agreed. The Big 6 have such a huge advantage over us from a revenue perspective that even if they did fall off for a year or two, all it will take is a new manager and 250 million in new signings to pass us by again. The only way for us to gatecrash the establishment and possibly add ourselves to the mix permanently is a sustained period of success for ~5 seasons. Meaning, we need to be regulars in Europe and consistently challenging for Champions League footy, with a couple of deep cup runs/wins thrown in there. This raises our profile around the world, increases our fanbase, which increases our advertising/revenue generation, and allows us more room to compete on the FFP front. Luckily, Emery seems to be 100% bought into the project from a long term prospective and isn't just looking at transfers with the next 6 months in mind, like so many of our past managers have. We need to be very calculated with our signings and be deliberate with who we recruit from this point forward. Guimaraes, for example, has been an outstanding signing for Newcastle and he would walk into any top 6 team's midfield. So much of their recent success has been because of what he brings to their squad. We need to make sure that our next 6-7 ins are all of similar Champions League quality to him. We have the bones of a good squad, but we still lack serious elite talent throughout. Based on Emery's comments from his presser today, he knows we're going to have to be patient in this regard and will need to continue to build slowly year over year in order to attract elite players to the club like Joao Felix, whom he was using as someone just out of our reach at the moment. With a bit of luck, hopefully some of our youth academy players can turn into these elite level players. It would solve the problem of trying to attract and pay big money for them. Simone like Tim for example could be our Bruno Guimares, he’s already here and cost practically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 4 points behind Liverpool both having played 27 games now. If we could somehow get a win against Chelsea, last 10 games could get interesting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted April 1, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, ender4 said: 4 points behind Liverpool both having played 27 games now. If we could somehow get a win against Chelsea, last 10 games could get interesting! We'll need to win 7 or 8 of our last 11 games to get Europe surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted April 1, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2023 Bournemouth a goal down already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 33 minutes ago, romavillan said: We'll need to win 7 or 8 of our last 11 games to get Europe surely. Six minimum I'd say. I'd say draws will be important aswell. Today is must not lose and also going to Anfield right at the end of the season as Liverpool are still pretty decent at home so that would be a big dropped two points for them. If we can get to 56-57 points and still have Brighton at home to play then I'd say that will be a very exciting final day of the season, about time we had one again in premier league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, VillaChris said: If we can get to 56-57 points and still have Brighton at home to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted April 1, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2023 21 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Six minimum I'd say. I'd say draws will be important aswell. Today is must not lose and also going to Anfield right at the end of the season as Liverpool are still pretty decent at home so that would be a big dropped two points for them. If we can get to 56-57 points and still have Brighton at home to play then I'd say that will be a very exciting final day of the season, about time we had one again in premier league. Finishing on 52+ points would be an achievement I reckon. 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats would be some amazing form, I think maybe 5 wins and a couple of draws is more like it. That would be 55 points and an amazing turnaround. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 27 minutes ago, romavillan said: Finishing on 52+ points would be an achievement I reckon. 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats would be some amazing form, I think maybe 5 wins and a couple of draws is more like it. That would be 55 points and an amazing turnaround. Yep I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 47 minutes ago, romavillan said: Finishing on 52+ points would be an achievement I reckon. 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats would be some amazing form, I think maybe 5 wins and a couple of draws is more like it. That would be 55 points and an amazing turnaround. I don't know. I'm looking for seven points from Forest-Leicester-Newcastle. Newcastle don't score that many goals so not like that's one to be written off at home. Regardless of today that would get us to 45 points and then you're looking at four points from Brentford away and Fulham at home. Then say beating Wolves away and Spurs at home would get us to 55 points so then it's another draw on top of that to get to 56 points. Won't be easy but if we can keep everyone fit then it is possible way we're setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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