Philosopher Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 hours ago, VillaChris said: Ings reminds me of Bent in a way. Signed him at wrong time. We needed Ings when Grealish was here as think that link up would've been brilliant, guess it wasn't realistic to sign him in summer 2019 but we needed to spend all the Wesley money and more on him that summer, didn't Southampton sign him for about 20m around that time. Issue with Bent is we signed him, he looked excellent for six months and then we sold Young and Downing and we all know he wasn't a forward who could create stuff by himself like Benteke. Bent under O'Neill would've been better with the crosses flying in. I think we'll start the season with the present crop of strikers we have. Would be really interesting if Archer could score a few in prem early as surely then we'd have to let go of one of the main two as we can't really have Ollie and Ings both warming the bench given the wages. O'Neill didn’t want him. He loved Gabby, who at the time was a real hard worker. Mon played a front 2. Bent fit Houillier because we played 3 Attacking mids, and we just needed a finisher. Bent scored 9 goals in half a season (but contributed nothing else in those 6 months). After that the supply line did indeed dry up alot, the much heralded N'Zogbia was a total flop, and Bent who scored goals at an average at best Charlton team saw his goal return gradually dry. Up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozvillafan Posted July 19, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted July 19, 2022 Ross Barkley? Since he left we have Coutinho, Buendia and Ramsey that all work far harder and produce far better.... ... and I left Kamara off the list since he hasn't played a PL game yet. Squads move on quickly - far quicker than Ross does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: Have you been watching him at roma? The championship was what four seasons ago? The Italian league is a bit like the championship, so I assume he has. Tammy isn't enough of an upgrade on Watkins and only looks like a world better now as the league he is playing in isn't as tough as the PL. If Watkins went to Italy then he would score a similar amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I haven’t but I reckon Ollie would tear up Serie A. It’s not the league it once was. I think italian league is mroe defensive so its actually more difficult to score.i agree the quality might not be whatvit once was though mind you. Im just hoping we see more of the 1st season ollie than the 2nd. As the one last season was generally poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Vancvillan said: I'm going to risk sounding like an absolute know-it-all-Nathan when that couldn't be further from the truth. I've never had the problem of being the smartest guy in the room. As a lover of stats who almost pledged his life to it's study, xg is a useful tool but it's not the last word on a player's effectiveness. If you're using it in conjunction with other stats then great, but we shouldn't start taking league tables of xg as gospel. I've done all of 30 seconds of digging into how the statsbomb model works (other models might be different) but two things jumped out straight away: 1. It's based in historical data, so assumes football as a game is somewhat static. Also each chance is compared to others, but no previous shot is going to be exactly same and maybe those small differences have a big effect. 2. It doesn't assign any weight to the ability of players involved, so if you're taking a throw in, it doesn't matter if the opposing keeper is prime Peter Schmeichel or Peter Enckelman. There are going to be lots of other gaps since modelling something as complex as football is no easy (or even possible) task. Unless you assume all players are spherical. That's a joke for an audience of maybe five people. If you don't get it you're missing nothing. For a season of less than 25 chances these gaps could make a big difference. That's not to say we ditch xg, just treat it for what it's worth - one of a lot of useful tools that can lead you down the wrong path if you use it on its own. Also, I don't think we need another striker, but I'd take another number 8 all day long. Good post. It’s just the only real tool we have to highlight strikers miss chances. It happens. We see top strikers miss big chances all the time. But they score more than they miss. I think that’s the same for Watkins. His missed chances are getting spoken about a lot but the 11 very good goals he scored seem to have been forgotten. There will come a time we’ll need to improve on Watkins and Ings. I don’t think that time has come yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: The Italian league is a bit like the championship, so I assume he has. Tammy isn't enough of an upgrade on Watkins and only looks like a world better now as the league he is playing in isn't as tough as the PL. If Watkins went to Italy then he would score a similar amount. Disagree it wasnt the league it once was but its alot better than the championship. No team in the championship is anywhere near the standard of inter or juventus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted July 19, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted July 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: The Italian league is a bit like the championship You what now? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post romavillan Posted July 19, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Disagree it wasnt the league it once was but its alot better than the championship. No team in the championship is anywhere near the standard of inter or juventus Or Napoli, Milan, Roma, Lazio, Atalanta ecc ecc 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: I think italian league is mroe defensive so its actually more difficult to score.i agree the quality might not be whatvit once was though mind you. Im just hoping we see more of the 1st season ollie than the 2nd. As the one last season was generally poor Is it more defensive or is that an old stereotype? More goals were scored in the league last season than the Premier League. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: The Italian league is a bit like the championship, so I assume he has. Tammy isn't enough of an upgrade on Watkins and only looks like a world better now as the league he is playing in isn't as tough as the PL. If Watkins went to Italy then he would score a similar amount. Italian league is slow-ish and tactical. Defensively disciplined and still full of very good players. (Broad generalization of course) The Championship is nothing like that at all, at least it wasn't the last time I watched which in fairness was in 18/19. Maybe it changed? The Serie A is just a infinitely better league. Edited July 19, 2022 by sne 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Obviously by virtue of teams such as Villa, Newcastle and so forth being able to sign top players from other big leagues the Premier League is stronger top to bottom than the rest, but to call one of the top leagues in Europe Championship standard is a bit over the top. At an absolute push we probably could have finished about 9th in Serie A last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 7 hours ago, Zatman said: Tammy missed a bucketload of one on ones in the Championship his XG for Roma and Chelsea is quite shocking compared to Watkins However, he still scored 50% more goals last season than Watkins. I don't think we will be signing Tammy so it is slightly irrelevant but I will use him as an example. If you just look at the xG to Goals figures then it is easy to say that if Watkins had as many opportunities as Tammy then he would score more goals. However, you also have to consider why Tammy has a higher xG figure. Watching him last season (I now live in Italy and Roma are my adopted Italian team - mainly down to Totti and Batistuta being two of my favourite players) what Tammy did well last season was creating chances for himself when he had no real right to. In short he has developed a knack of being in the right place at the right time - in part down to gambling on where the ball might go and making sure he is in command of that part of the penalty box. Meanwhile I think Ollie is less instinctive and reacts to what is happening - this means that a lot of the time he *almost* gets a chance but the ball doesn't quite make it to him. For example he vary rarely follows in on shots and tucks away the rebound. Tammy scored two or three goals this season with various parts of his anatomy just through rebounds "hitting" him and going into the net. The biggest reason that Ollie's xG is so low is because he isn't creating as many of these types of chances - I also think his first touch often means that he gets blocked before he gets a shot off - in my opinion that should still be counted within the xG figures because there was a chance but I am pretty sure not having a shot when you could / should have done is not considered in those stats. I think it is less about the rest of the team making more chances for him and more about him learning to become an predator in and around the box. I think Jimmy Greaves asked the question many, many years ago about what is better - a striker who (on average) gets 1 or 2 chances a match and scores once or a striker who makes 4 chances a match and scores (on average 1.5 goals a match). His response was that the latter was better because overall they scored more goals. If Ollie can improve those parts of his game then he should immediately get more chances, a higher xG and more goals. At the same time - hopefully we will be more in control of the middle of the pitch and allow our midfielders more possession closer to the opposition box, also resulting in more chances being created. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginko Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Not sure why we’re talking about Tammy, he wouldn’t come to us anyway. He’ll probably wind up at Man Utd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulMcGrath_5 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 47 minutes ago, Made In Aston said: The Italian league is a bit like the championship, so I assume he has. Tammy isn't enough of an upgrade on Watkins and only looks like a world better now as the league he is playing in isn't as tough as the PL. If Watkins went to Italy then he would score a similar amount. Or, it's nothing like the Championship. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Is it more defensive or is that an old stereotype? More goals were scored in the league last season than the Premier League. Just because there was more goals though it doesnt mean the focus of the league is more a defensive minded approach. Italian football is known for its solid back lines and passing football. Not known for its attacking aspects like the premier league. Although i do accept the pl has become more negative over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, romavillan said: Or Napoli, Milan, Roma, Lazio, Atalanta ecc ecc Can you see fulham or Bournemouth beating any of those sides last season? I cant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, romavillan said: You what now? He's not wrong. Both are leagues and have football teams in them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philosopher Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: I think italian league is mroe defensive so its actually more difficult to score.i agree the quality might not be whatvit once was though mind you. Im just hoping we see more of the 1st season ollie than the 2nd. As the one last season was generally poor If you want to make a proper comparison, then just look at Lukaku. Went to Inter looked like one of the best in the world. Came back to Chelsea looked like the same Lukaku at Man U. Lukaku is a good striker, but not world class. At inter he looked world class. The reality is the Premier league is a level above Serie A right now. Also Serie A isn't the uber defensive league it used to be. It's still somewhat defensive, but that plays into the hands of bigger, stronger forwards, as it means deeper defensive lines. Also in the Premier league almost all centre backs are 6 foot plus, and muscular. In Italy there are some smaller ones. I'm very interested in how Martinez is going to do at Man U. I worry about Ten Hag as it looks to me like he thinks he can get by on the formula he used at Ajax. I fear he is in for a rude awakening. Martinez and DeJong are very good players, but they will need a lot of protection, which Man U don't really have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Arsenal signing zinchenko. We really need 1-2 more really, really high quality signings if we think we are moving far up the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MaVilla said: Arsenal signing zinchenko. We really need 1-2 more really, really high quality signings if we think we are moving far up the table. I'm really not convinced by Jesus and Zinchenko for £80m. Kamara and Carlos are much better signings for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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