Steven Gerrard

[nick76]

2 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Record split between the 21/22 euro qualifiers, the middle and bottom 6 teams.

Agree with the decent performances against big teams not getting the results they perhaps deserve, and getting even 1ppg on average from these games would make a difference to our season. This was part of my optimism for this season, because felt like if level of performance in these games is maintained then the results should be better just because over a longer period the level of performance and result should get closer.

Playing poorly and losing to mid teams doesn't really stand up over Gerrard's tenure to date. Could argue results in these have dropped off, with 5 points from last 5 of these, though not sure that's a big enough drop off or sample size to read too much into it yet. Palace game this season is the only one it feels like we got outplayed in, and even then it took a dodgy penalty after we'd just hit the bar to swing the game properly their way. I'd argue on balance we probably should have had more points from these games, with Brentford, Leicester and perhaps the Wolves game as well being ones we maybe didn't get what we should have given the performance.

Not sure too many of the wins against the lower teams have been scraped either. Maybe Everton last season? We had to defend well but certainly did this and ultimately deserved the win I think. Southampton just gone? Was a horrible scrappy game, but still we were the only team really creating any chances and win probably the fair result. Rest of the wins seem pretty comfortable to me.

Correct me if I’m wrong but 3 of those 4 wins in the second tier “8-13” are games in the first six games of his tenure? Palace, Leicester and Brighton? So basically by the time he got his hands on the team our performances against mid table teams are poor as I’ve said so my argument stands up post the new manager bounce.

As for the lower group it’s about opinion then, I think we’ve scraped a lot and not been comfortable.  In terms of scraping I mean don’t create many chances, always a chance of conceding and rarely know a game is won and done.  Hence why we’ve been craving a DM for so long before getting Kamara and Gerrard went and brought Carlos.

Under Gerrard I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve felt comfort with a result before the end of the game.  

After rewatching the Southampton game they showed we were 19th this season in xG.  God knows what Gerrard means now about being more pragmatic.

I think my argument in my last comment holds up well in your stats even though I hadn’t done the data research.

That table also shows how poor Gerrard is doing, it’s 42 points in 34 games…made worse after taking the new manager bounce out with 30 points from the last 28 games.  

Even if you don’t believe in the new manager bounce, it’s hard to argue that 30 points from the last 28 games is acceptable from Gerrard?

Edited September 21, 2022 by nick76

[Keyblade]

This time last year, this is where we were in terms of xG:

Which was around 2 places worse off than where we were in the table (just like now). 

[Pinebro]

13 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Apologies if posted already:

Steven Gerrard

“From a personal point of view I‘ve maybe been guilty of trying to move it forward too quickly.”

“You have an idea in your head of how you want it to look, how you want to play. Maybe it is a slower process, maybe it’s going to take a little more time”

So basically got no clue what he is doing 

[Vive_La_Villa]

10 hours ago, nick76 said:

Even if you don’t believe in the new manager bounce, it’s hard to argue that 30 points from the last 28 games is acceptable from Gerrard?

It’s not but I reckon these numbers could improve significantly over the next 5-6 games. If they don’t he just has go. Ideally he will be gone regardless but it does seem the club are going to continue to back him for now.

[Ingram85]

“Trying to move it forward too quickly”

Move what exactly? Your tactics? Your plan? 

**** off mate. Absolute chancer. 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

15 hours ago, IrishVilla10 said:

18th for big chances created, 19th for XG, and now we’re going to be more pragmatic. 

Its awful football and has been for ages. Who in our side is improving? Who is looking happy and comfortable in their position and the system we play? Who is thriving in this ‘no-excuses’ environment?

Look at all the national team omissions; Watkins, Mings, Kamara, Digne, Coutinho, Buendia, Douglas Luiz, even Archer isnt getting back in the u21s after hitting 4 in 4 for them. With injuries mounting up, Gerrardball in effect, this is going to be a crap season. Picking McGinn as captain, dropping players after good games, the Mings stuff at the start about looking him in his eye, etc. Been a bit of a disaster considering where we wanted to be heading toward this season.

[Zatman]

2 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Its awful football and has been for ages. Who in our side is improving? Who is looking happy and comfortable in their position and the system we play? Who is thriving in this ‘no-excuses’ environment?

Look at all the national team omissions; Watkins, Mings, Kamara, Digne, Coutinho, Buendia, Douglas Luiz, even Archer isnt getting back in the u21s after hitting 4 in 4 for them. With injuries mounting up, Gerrardball in effect, this is going to be a crap season. Picking McGinn as captain, dropping players after good games, the Mings stuff at the start about looking him in his eye, etc. Been a bit of a disaster considering where we wanted to be heading toward this season.

About 5 months ago we we were hyping up how our players had a chance to win the World Cup with Brazil, France, Argentina and English internationals

Will be just Emi going to Qatar

[nick76]

2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It’s not but I reckon these numbers could improve significantly over the next 5-6 games. If they don’t he just has go. Ideally he will be gone regardless but it does seem the club are going to continue to back him for now.

I’m glad you’re confident it can improve the next 5 or 6 games, I’m struggling. I look at the fixtures we have coming up and normally see a possible good run of points but I’m honestly fearful of them at the moment especially if Kamara is out for a period.  Starting with Leeds who we know will out run us, can we counter that with quality play, nothing suggests we can the way we are playing. SG needs to somehow get a tune out of the quality we have because he should be picking up good points over that period, he’s lucky that it is an easier run.  Let’s hope he can do it but I don’t see it.

Edited September 22, 2022 by nick76

[Vive_La_Villa]

13 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m glad you’re confident it can improve the next 5 or 6 games, I’m struggling. I look at the fixtures we have coming up and normally see a possible good run of points but I’m honestly fearful of them at the moment especially if Kamara is out for a period.  Starting with Leeds who we know will out run us, can we counter that with quality play, nothing suggests we can the way we are playing. SG needs to somehow get a tune out of the quality we have because he should be picking up good points over that period, he’s lucky that it is an easier run.  Let’s hope he can do it but I don’t see it.

Im hoping it’s kind of a win win. If we pick up a good amount of points it’s never a bad thing and hopefully can go on to have an ok season. If we don’t then change of manager coach will be inevitable and then we can look to the future in that respect. 
 

Either way something has to give. 

[Tom13]

3 hours ago, Ingram85 said:

“Trying to move it forward too quickly”

Move what exactly? Your tactics? Your plan? 

**** off mate. Absolute chancer. 

He really is a chancer tbh, his words, though they seemed good at first, are just desperately trying to cover up the fact that he doesn't have a clue what he's doing.

[RichiBoi11]

4 minutes ago, Tom13 said:

He really is a chancer tbh, his words, though they seemed good at first, are just desperately trying to cover up the fact that he doesn't have a clue what he's doing.

You can tell that without even his words, you just need to watch one of the leagues greatest midfielders telling his own midfielders to fill in at full back to know he's deluded.

[tomsky_11]

12 hours ago, nick76 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but 3 of those 4 wins in the second tier “8-13” are games in the first six games of his tenure? Palace, Leicester and Brighton? So basically by the time he got his hands on the team our performances against mid table teams are poor as I’ve said so my argument stands up post the new manager bounce.

Correct, it's actually 3 of the first 4. But we've had this conversation about new manager bounce before and have said before I don't think it holds up. Will have to agree to disagree on this I think.

Given elsewhere in your post you pointed out, quite rightly, the lack of a DM being a big issue last season, it may be just as valid to argue the early run of decent perfomances was down to us actually having an out-and-out DM in Nakamba available for Gerrard's first 5 games.

12 hours ago, nick76 said:

As for the lower group it’s about opinion then, I think we’ve scraped a lot and not been comfortable.  In terms of scraping I mean don’t create many chances, always a chance of conceding and rarely know a game is won and done.

Everton away last season was a tight game and ultimately a decent defensive performance away from home. Southampton just gone was a poor game but we really didn't concede many chances and had a reasonable number ourselves. Everton this season was maybe in the balance for about 5mins at the end, having looked well on top for 85mins? Every other win against this group was comfortable. Maybe worth highlighting as well that we have won all 8 of our games against this group in which we have scored first.

12 hours ago, nick76 said:

Under Gerrard I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve felt comfort with a result before the end of the game.

There's at least 5 just from that lower group. Add in a couple of 2-0s against Brighton, the Leicester and Palace wins, then could argue there have been a few draws where we've not looked close to losing, the only disappointment being not taking more points from them.

12 hours ago, nick76 said:

I think my argument in my last comment holds up well in your stats even though I hadn’t done the data research.

That table also shows how poor Gerrard is doing, it’s 42 points in 34 games…made worse after taking the new manager bounce out with 30 points from the last 28 games. 

Have to disagree. For me the level of result against the the mid and lower teams shows a reasonable base of points to build on, which shouldn't see us in any real danger if maintained. This was the same table just from last season under Gerrard:

As I said in previous post, my start of the season view was if we just maintain the level of performance we saw last season against the bigger teams then the odds are we should get more than 0.11ppg from those games. Add whatever improvement we get in those games to a 45 point base from the mid and lower and we're looking about a 50 point season minimum, and hopefully something more in the 55-60 point range.

13 hours ago, nick76 said:

Even if you don’t believe in the new manager bounce, it’s hard to argue that 30 points from the last 28 games is acceptable from Gerrard?

It's below par for sure. Not quite far enough off for me to be of the opinion he should be let go, though he was teetering close to that point a couple of games back.

Talking of the last 28 games specifically, I'd say were about 11-12 points behind expectation for those games, of which 7-8 were from last season's games in that run. At the end of last season I wasn't too worried about that shortfall, because 1) we were probably at least 4 points over expectation from the opening 6 games, and 2) I'm relatively ok with where we probably dropped those 7-8 points, say half from the difficult West Ham to Spurs run in which we picked up 0 points but IMO probably deserved 3-4 at least from the perfomances, and the other half from a couple of freak performances/results, like Watford or Burnley.

Add the poor start to this season and the picture certainly became more worrying. We where 3 points behind expectation after the first 3 games and 5 off following the Arsenal game. Before West Ham I'd said in this thread:

Quote

7 from next 6, providing reasonable performances would probably be the baseline for me.

...which after Arsenal became 7 from next 4. Now we've got 4 of these with 2 to play, and given the way the City game went I'd say going unbeaten in the next two, even if that's two draws, probably buys him enough time to try and get us to around 20 points (which puts us about on course for a 50 point season) by the winter break.

14 hours ago, nick76 said:

After rewatching the Southampton game they showed we were 19th this season in xG.  God knows what Gerrard means now about being more pragmatic.

Not sure what the issue is with this statement because he's right IMO. It's been pointed out multiple times in this thread, even before Gerrard explicitly stated it in recent interviews, that it seemed like we have been trying to move away from a more compact, hard to beat set up and towards a more expansive method, trying to dominate the ball and take games to teams, which naturally opens us up more at the back, expecially to the counter. Clearly based on results this season it hasn't worked, so taking a step back towards a more compact, hard to beat style is the sensible thing to do right now.

I don't think the idea of this progression is necessarily bad, as if we want to operate in the upper part of the table then it's a place we probably need to get to. But clearly it will take more time to get right than Gerrard had hoped for at the start of this season. I think the low xG coupled with the high possession we've had shows this, we've got the possession up to the final third but it's that last bit that is the hardest to get right and takes more time than we've allowed for. I suspect the Beale/Critchley change has had some effect on this as well.

 

[nick76]

45 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

It's below par for sure. Not quite far enough off for me to be of the opinion he should be let go, though he was teetering close to that point a couple of games back.

Talking of the last 28 games specifically, I'd say were about 11-12 points behind expectation for those games, of which 7-8 were from last season's games in that run. At the end of last season I wasn't too worried about that shortfall, because 1) we were probably at least 4 points over expectation from the opening 6 games, and 2) I'm relatively ok with where we probably dropped those 7-8 points, say half from the difficult West Ham to Spurs run in which we picked up 0 points but IMO probably deserved 3-4 at least from the perfomances, and the other half from a couple of freak performances/results, like Watford or Burnley.

How the hell is 30 points off the last 28 games not far off what you think he should be let go with?  How low a bar is that!  The second paragraph is a little bonkers! 12 points short from only 30 points is 40% additional amount.  I also don’t agree with your reasoning for the allowance.  Gerrard was also brought in because Purslow said he wasn’t happy with our progression so not only are you below the norm but below the uplift Purslow expected and thus got sacked Smith.

The worst thing is SG is getting worse as time goes on from 42 points in 34 games over his tenure, to 30 points in 28 games to 16 points in 18 games.  This season he has 7 points from 7 games and we look worse this season and we’ve just lost our quality DM signing of the summer in Kamara for who knows how long and our left back Digne.  SG was lost before so god knows what he’s going to do now.

Edited September 22, 2022 by nick76

[tomsky_11]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

How the hell is 30 points off the last 28 games not far off what you think he should be let go with?  How low a bar is that!  The second paragraph is a little bonkers! 12 points short from only 30 points is 40% additional amount.  I also don’t agree with your reasoning.  Gerrard was also brought in because Purslow said he wasn’t happy with our progression so not only are you below the norm but below the uplift Purslow expected and thus got sacked Smith.

 

Covering the same ground again here but:

1) for me his performance in the early games is worth more that to be written off as "new manager bounce"

2) performances in many games last season in the period you talk about I don't think got the points they deserved, especially against the better teams. That's even the case this season because we really should have had at least a point from West Ham. And but for some poor officiating might well have had more against City. If we are talking about xG as well, worth noting the current xG tables have us about 1 point and 1 or 2 places higher than we actually are.

3) I shared a whole load of data before of performance under our PL era managers. To sack Gerrard now with his record to date, compared to the records of other sacked managers or those that have survived beyond 34 games, would look pretty harsh. All the managers we've sacked before have been on significanly worse runs, while plenty have managed for longer with worse records to date. He's also still on par with O'Neill's record after 34 games.

4) Smith was sacked because of a very poor run of results, the level of which Gerrard hasn't quite reached. Gerrard's record of form last season, 9th from when he took over with 7th most goals and 8th best defensive record, was progress from where we were at when Smith left. We absolutely need more progression from Gerrard this season though, and that's why IMO he'll surely be gone if we lose the next two, is at least safe for now if we lose neither of them, and has something to build on for a decent season still if we do better than that. Then he's got til the winter break for me to get us to 20 points, which would put us on course for my low bar of around 50 points minimum this season.

[Risso]

Good points Tomsky. It's also worth pointing out that we've lost 3 out of our four first choiuce defenders to injury currently, as well as our brand new and very good  defensive midfielder. I think the club will certainly take those circumstances into consideration.

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Covering the same ground again here but:

1) for me his performance in the early games is worth more that to be written off as "new manager bounce"

2) performances in many games last season in the period you talk about I don't think got the points they deserved, especially against the better teams. That's even the case this season because we really should have had at least a point from West Ham. And but for some poor officiating might well have had more against City. If we are talking about xG as well, worth noting the current xG tables have us about 1 point and 1 or 2 places higher than we actually are.

3) I shared a whole load of data before of performance under our PL era managers. To sack Gerrard now with his record to date, compared to the records of other sacked managers or those that have survived beyond 34 games, would look pretty harsh. All the managers we've sacked before have been on significanly worse runs, while plenty have managed for longer with worse records to date. He's also still on par with O'Neill's record after 34 games.

4) Smith was sacked because of a very poor run of results, the level of which Gerrard hasn't quite reached. Gerrard's record of form last season, 9th from when he took over with 7th most goals and 8th best defensive record, was progress from where we were at when Smith left. We absolutely need more progression from Gerrard this season though, and that's why IMO he'll surely be gone if we lose the next two, is at least safe for now if we lose neither of them, and has something to build on for a decent season still if we do better than that. Then he's got til the winter break for me to get us to 20 points, which would put us on course for my low bar of around 50 points minimum this season.

Re your points

1) disagree

2) first part I disagree with

3) different ownership structure, different expectations plus it poor to watch, poor results and with no glimmers of improving

4) smith was sacked because of a poor 2021 with a bad run.  Gerrard was brought in to surpass that because the CEO expected a lot more.  I’m guessing (without research) Gerrard’s points collation in 2022 is pretty much in line with Smith’s give or take yet has a better squad including the recruits Smith brought but wasn’t able to use before he got sacked.  So Gerrard is at Smiths level, with a better squad and underachieving for what Smith got sacked for and we don’t look like getting better

[nick76]

6 minutes ago, Risso said:

Good points Tomsky. It's also worth pointing out that we've lost 3 out of our four first choiuce defenders to injury currently, as well as our brand new and very good  defensive midfielder. I think the club will certainly take those circumstances into consideration.

We’ve only just lost Kamara and Digne so that doesn’t excuse past results.  Cash is back after the international break and arguably Young was man of the match for us against City as his replacement.

It’s not as if we have only just starting playing badly either.

As for the club taking it into account, they didn’t take into account for Smith not being able to play his new signings together for any meaningful minutes early last season and Watkins injury preseason so I doubt SG will get that benefit of the doubt.

Edited September 22, 2022 by nick76

[AvonVillain]

9 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Then he's got til the winter break for me to get us to 20 points, which would put us on course for my low bar of around 50 points minimum this season.

Some very good and refreshing points. Which still unfortunately ends with what a significant number ruefully think: Dean Smith could also have gotten as many points as minimum, as he already proved.

All that turmoil and upheaval for what seems a downgrade, in style of play at least, with zero connection to the club dismantling all the positive work by the previous manager. It's heartbreaking.

[Stevo985]

Gerrard certainly appears to be a downgrade from Smith unless he massively turns things around (which I don't think he will)

That doesn't mean we should have kept Smith, though

[PieFacE]

The quicker the club realises that appointing Gerrard was a mistake a rectifies the situation the better. I kinda feel like Gerrard is 1 loss away from being sacked at this point.