Relegation Avoidance Thread

[useless]

We're four points off the bottom three, we've lost five of the last six, if we lose tomorrrow we could be a lot closer to the bottom three, with Man City, The Ice Kings, and Liverpool to come, I'd say we're in a relegation battle. And it might be November but we're still almost a third through the season, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the table as it looks at this stage of the season is usually a good indicator of how it will look at the end of the season, especially bottom of the table wise.

So yes we need to put a run of form together and starting picking up points, because the teams around us are all capable of doing the same.

[turvontour]

So who isnt in a relegation battle then? Everton 2 points above us? Man u 4 points above us? Wolves who are in the European places, but if they hadn't had that ten min comeback against us would be on exactly the same points as us right now.

[VillaChris]

Main thing I think is to get 6 points off Norwich and Burnley. That won't be easy in itself given Burnley is a bit of bogey team for us these days and they're picking up form now and well Norwich won't have to do any scouting on us as DS knows our side inside out.

However if we can get a point tomorrow, 6 points from the two above and something off Leicester that would put us on 21 points for Boxing day so would be above a point a game and really would be catastrophic form from start of 2022 for us to be in serious relegation danger.

We have a good run of fixtures in Feb/March so think that's when we'll pull comfortably clear.

Our home form is actually o.k so far, 3 wins from 6 played so keep that ratio up and we'd be close to 10 wins and you pretty much never get relegated with that although of course plenty of tough opposition still to come to VP.

[briny_ear]

1 hour ago, turvontour said:

So who isnt in a relegation battle then? Everton 2 points above us? Man u 4 points above us? Wolves who are in the European places, but if they hadn't had that ten min comeback against us would be on exactly the same points as us right now.

Sadly, though, they did have the comeback and have gained 7 points from 4 games since that victory, so are justifiably 6 points ahead of us.

I don’t think wishful thinking will get us out of our current predicament. Emulating Wolves and picking up a few points is a better bet.

[Zatman]

If this thread is still alive in March then the management team have badly **** up

[turvontour]

4 hours ago, Zatman said:

If this thread is still alive in March then the management team have badly **** up

This exactly my thinking. The owners, managers and players would have had to have got this season very wrong if we are actually in a relegation fight come May.

[turvontour]

5 hours ago, briny_ear said:

Sadly, though, they did have the comeback and have gained 7 points from 4 games since that victory, so are justifiably 6 points ahead of us.

I don’t think wishful thinking will get us out of our current predicament. Emulating Wolves and picking up a few points is a better bet.

Yes but the point I'm trying to make is that you cant be in the hunt for European places in November (wolves) or in a relegation battle in November (us). We were ten minutes away from being on the same points as Wolves. Theres still about 70 points to play for for God's sake.

Were we in a mad relegation fight when we lost to Watford at the start of the season? Were we gunning for europe after we beat Man U the other month and were 7th? No, neither of them. None of the scenarios exist until April next year.

Sorry, I'm not responding directly to your point, I largely agree with that. I just feel that the media have basically created a percieved relegation battle that lasts the season in order to drive interest in unattractive games. Probably contributes to so many managers losing their jobs, as you can't be in a lower league position than your club is aiming to achieve, despite that being very likely to happen for spells across the length of a season.

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, turvontour said:

Yes but the point I'm trying to make is that you cant be in the hunt for European places in November (wolves) or in a relegation battle in November (us). We were ten minutes away from being on the same points as Wolves. Theres still about 70 points to play for for God's sake.

Were we in a mad relegation fight when we lost to Watford at the start of the season? Were we gunning for europe after we beat Man U the other month and were 7th? No, neither of them. None of the scenarios exist until April next year.

Sorry, I'm not responding directly to your point, I largely agree with that. I just feel that the media have basically created a percieved relegation battle that lasts the season in order to drive interest in unattractive games. Probably contributes to so many managers losing their jobs, as you can't be in a lower league position than your club is aiming to achieve, despite that being very likely to happen for spells across the length of a season.

Is it really, seriously your contention that the relegation battle doesn't exist until April??? 

[turvontour]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Is it really, seriously your contention that the relegation battle doesn't exist until April??? 

Yes, exactly that. Otherwise most of the teams are in a relationship battle for most of the season, surely? Who isnt in the relegation battle? 

Are Wolves bang in the middle of the battle for the champions league spots right now? They were deep in the relegation battle last month? Or do/did neither of the battles exist?

We were in what I would class as a relegation battle at the end of the season before last. We needed better results than Watford and Bournemouth (I think it was) across the last few games and just about came out on top. That's not comparable to a bad run of form in November.

The media love it though. The Norwich, Watford, Newcastle etc managers are all struggling in the relegation battle, and need to go. Dean Smith being dragged into the relegation battle with Villa. Surely his times up etc.

It's more the terminology I dont like, it feels like it's there to make unattractive fixtures more important. And everyone buys into it. 

"Burnely v crystal palace is on next, both sides will be fighting to avoid being dragged into the relegation battle. Is Dyche's job on the line? And its live!"

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, turvontour said:

Yes, exactly that. Otherwise most of the teams are in a relationship battle for most of the season, surely? Who isnt in the relegation battle? 

Are Wolves bang in the middle of the battle for the champions league spots right now? They were deep in the relegation battle last month? Or do/did neither of the battles exist?

We were in what I would class as a relegation battle at the end of the season before last. We needed better results than Watford and Bournemouth (I think it was) across the last few games and just about came out on top. That's not comparable to a bad run of form in November.

The media love it though. The Norwich, Watford, Newcastle etc managers are all struggling in the relegation battle, and need to go. Dean Smith being dragged into the relegation battle with Villa. Surely his times up etc.

It's more the terminology I dont like, it feels like it's there to make unattractive fixtures more important. And everyone buys into it. 

"Burnely v crystal palace is on next, both sides will be fighting to avoid being dragged into the relegation battle. Is Dyche's job on the line? And its live!"

Okay, there's some fair points in there - clearly you're right, the media do love to gin up drama and need to sell a story, for instance. But the simple fact is, three teams get relegated, and the points you get at this stage count just as much as those in the spring run-in. Generally, with 1/3 of the season gone, teams are roughly where they deserve to be - there might be some oddities like ManU being below where they 'should' be or Wolves being above where they 'should' be but the teams who are at the top are going to be the ones competing at the top for the rest of the season and the ones at the bottom are going to be competing at the bottom.

[VillaChris]

Said previously on here or elsewhere a good guide is Everton in 19/20. Were bottom 3 and below us around middle of December 0 but no one seriously believed they would go down. They appointed Ancelotti, got the wins they needed and comfortably finished mid table.

I expect same to happen to us. Dosen't mean we might not pull away in next few weeks as we have plenty of tough games but would be hugely disappointing if we can get up to 20-21 points before year is out and get to May and still be scrambling around for two wins to stay up. 

Agree with others, would be a failure of season especially with a transfer window to sign a player or two.

Edited November 27, 2021 by VillaChris

[VillaChris]

Lock lock lock....

[AVFCforever1991]

Lock the thread 0% chance we're relegated

[useless]

Another good result for Norwich today getting a point against Wolves, they play Newcastle next, who I've only just realized haven't won any of their thirteen games so far this season. Technically probably should be hoping for a Leeds win but I'd rather Brighton beat them, maybe a draw would be a good compromise, relegation battle much more interesting this season as a lot more teams involved.

[VillaChris]

Brentford-Everton is a big one tomorrow.

Read Richarlison is suspended and Gray might be out injured so very few goals in Everton team. Don't win and they have Liverpool and Chelsea coming up so they could really be in major issues around xmas as all feels very flat for them currently and they've pretty much only beaten bottom half teams so far.

[DCJonah]

I was confident we'd stay up under Smith, no chance We're going down under Gerrard now. 

[abdulaziz1]

14 minutes ago, useless said:

Another good result for Norwich today getting a point against Wolves, they play Newcastle next, who I've only just realized haven't won any of their thirteen games so far this season. Technically probably should be hoping for a Leeds win but I'd rather Brighton beat them, maybe a draw would be a good compromise, relegation battle much more interesting this season as a lot more teams involved.

I think a Norwich win against Newcastle is better for us longer term. Newcastle relegation will stop their progress a bit. 
Brighton and Leeds draw would be the best result. Brentford to either win or draw with Everton. We can’t look only up, or only down.

[useless]

I don't really mind who wins out of Newcastle and Norwich in terms of how it affects us, so hope Norwich win, as for the others would rather see the likes of Leeds, Burnley, and Watford dropping points for now just to be on the safe side.

Edited November 27, 2021 by useless

[messi11]

Is there a European thread?

[turvontour]

On 27/11/2021 at 12:46, HanoiVillan said:

Okay, there's some fair points in there - clearly you're right, the media do love to gin up drama and need to sell a story, for instance. But the simple fact is, three teams get relegated, and the points you get at this stage count just as much as those in the spring run-in. Generally, with 1/3 of the season gone, teams are roughly where they deserve to be - there might be some oddities like ManU being below where they 'should' be or Wolves being above where they 'should' be but the teams who are at the top are going to be the ones competing at the top for the rest of the season and the ones at the bottom are going to be competing at the bottom.

Oh no I completely agree with us being reasonably sure of the teams that will be involved in the key battles come the end of the season. I think Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool will get CL and all or two of them could likely compete for the title. I think Norwich and Newcastle will struggle for the majority of the season and could likely be in relegation places come the end of the season. Other than that I/we dont/cant know. 

It was funny, I just completely inadvertently came across Agbonlahor on talk sport saying that there were 7 teams in this years relegation battle, and he didnt include us presumably because we moved up a few places to 11th. We'll no doubt be back in this supposed battle again next weekend.

I've realised it's just me having an issue with the phrase "relegation battle" and is probably better served in things that piss you off that shouldn't. My other one is "must win game" which is applied to pretty much every game, most of which dont have any bearing on anything.