Rob182 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 10 hours ago, Farlz said: 70 points with triple Leeds on Tuesday to play, pleased with that. Now ready for the headache which is going to be GW26 and deciding how I should play that. That’s a great score. It feels like most people have got a middling score of 45-55 this week. My green arrow is so small it’s almost pointless. 56 (with Gundo off the bench), with Dallas, Raphina(c) and Bamford left to play. I took a minus 4 last week, swapping Cresswell and Soucek for Dallas and Raphina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted February 22, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 22, 2021 15 hours ago, Stevo985 said: Yeah I've got two moves. Either Grealish to Son... which I almost certainly would just go for if it wasn't for Spurs being so shit. It's textbook gambler's fallacy, but when I look at all the 2 pointers in Son's recent games I just see a serious double point haul coming up, and the next few games are where it'll happen. Same for Kane. Quote the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddywhack Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 hours ago, Rob182 said: My green arrow is so small it’s almost pointless. Your wife told me the same thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 22, 2021 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, BOF said: It's textbook gambler's fallacy, but when I look at all the 2 pointers in Son's recent games I just see a serious double point haul coming up, and the next few games are where it'll happen. Same for Kane. Exactly what I'm thinking. And everyone is jumping off them after the last game or two. I already have Kane (brought him in this week for a -4. ugh) so I'd be doubling up on Spurs. Which long term is probably a good plan given they have a game in 29 too. It also leaves Antonio in who also plays in 29 (although his fixtures before then are pretty rotten) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted February 22, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2021 Seems a bit of an overreaction. Especially as rumours started with him not being in the Training photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob182 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 (edited) Yeah, it would make more sense to tell them they can play but they can’t pick Villa players. I’m surprised players are allowed to play anyway. I know it sounds trivial, but Bamford was talking the other week about how he hadn’t captained himself so he squared the ball instead of shooting himself. Stuff like that just seems wrong. Edited February 22, 2021 by Rob182 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farlz Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Well that couldn't have gone much better for me with Bamford, Dallas and Raphina scoring. 105 point week, absolutely unbelievable. It's all gonna go down hill from here now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob182 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, Farlz said: Well that couldn't have gone much better for me with Bamford, Dallas and Raphina scoring. 105 point week, absolutely unbelievable. It's all gonna go down hill from here now Great score! I finished on 93, and also had Dallas, Raphina (c) and Bamford. Good ol’ Leeds, I like them really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 23, 2021 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2021 Yeah that leeds result has turned a very average week into a very good week! Dallas, Raphina and bamford (C) all in my team. 90 points for the week out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a-k Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 (edited) Well my triple Soton gamble didn't work out. That probably explains my 6th red arrow in the last seven weeks. Edited February 24, 2021 by a-k 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted February 24, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 24, 2021 4 red arrows in 5 weeks and down from 177k to 321k. This week's wildcard and 62pts was the worst red of them all at 61k, but I think I have a good team and just need to give them a few weeks now to do the biz. If I start chasing the points now I'll end up dropping the ones I do have in the team. Hopefully this wildcard will set me up to some degree for the run-in and I'm in decent shape for the next few crazy weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 24, 2021 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2021 More and more this season it just seems like a season in which taking gambles and trying to be clever just doesn't work. I spent the first 12 weeks trying to do the right thing and be intelligent and get differentials and it monumentally failed. Then I made a decision to just be safe and boring and I haven't looked back. My team is SO template but I'm making progress every week. It's a very very strange season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouUnastanFren Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, BOF said: 4 red arrows in 5 weeks and down from 177k to 321k. This week's wildcard and 62pts was the worst red of them all at 61k, but I think I have a good team and just need to give them a few weeks now to do the biz. If I start chasing the points now I'll end up dropping the ones I do have in the team. Hopefully this wildcard will set me up to some degree for the run-in and I'm in decent shape for the next few crazy weeks. Similar story for me. Red arrows galore, rank has tripled in 4 weeks. My own fault though for missing a deadline and leaving it too late and rushing my wildcard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sid4ever Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Will persistence reward with Salah, or is now the time to jettison, and how long is Jack out for, quandaries and conundrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted February 24, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 24, 2021 17 minutes ago, Sid4ever said: Will persistence reward with Salah, or is now the time to jettison, and how long is Jack out for, quandaries and conundrums. If I was binning him I don't think I'd be doing it before Sheffield United and Fulham. But I guess within the premium price range if the money can be better spent on the likes of Sterling or KDB then there's an argument for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob182 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Stevo985 said: More and more this season it just seems like a season in which taking gambles and trying to be clever just doesn't work. I spent the first 12 weeks trying to do the right thing and be intelligent and get differentials and it monumentally failed. Then I made a decision to just be safe and boring and I haven't looked back. My team is SO template but I'm making progress every week. It's a very very strange season There’s definitely an argument to be had there. My differential gambles of bringing in Lowton and Ashley Barnes worked a treat, shooting me up over the past 3 GWs from about 300k just into the top 100k. But previous gambles haven’t paid off at all. I think you need your differential gambles to also coincide with some luck around what the template players do. If you pick a differential defender that doesn’t come off, but all of the template defenders also concede, then the gamble hasn’t been costly. Obviously with Man City having an amazing defensive record lately, and a lot of teams having 2 of their defenders, the gambles can hurt you if you were to take out one of them or another well performing template defender. On Salah, I took him out a few weeks ago and I’m sticking by my decision. He’s getting returns now, but it feels like he’s returning like a 7-8m asset, not a 12m big gun, so I’ve been able to use that spare money to look at Kane/ Son/ KDB etc for upcoming fixtures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 24, 2021 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rob182 said: There’s definitely an argument to be had there. My differential gambles of bringing in Lowton and Ashley Barnes worked a treat, shooting me up over the past 3 GWs from about 300k just into the top 100k. But previous gambles haven’t paid off at all. I think you need your differential gambles to also coincide with some luck around what the template players do. If you pick a differential defender that doesn’t come off, but all of the template defenders also concede, then the gamble hasn’t been costly. Obviously with Man City having an amazing defensive record lately, and a lot of teams having 2 of their defenders, the gambles can hurt you if you were to take out one of them or another well performing template defender. On Salah, I took him out a few weeks ago and I’m sticking by my decision. He’s getting returns now, but it feels like he’s returning like a 7-8m asset, not a 12m big gun, so I’ve been able to use that spare money to look at Kane/ Son/ KDB etc for upcoming fixtures. Obviously some gambles will still pay off. But in general I feel like sticking to the template is an easier way to climb the ranks now. At least to a point. I've climbed 1.1m places over the last 10 weeks and my team is 84% template! The only real differentials I've had in that time is getting Gundo and Antonio before a lot of people did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted February 24, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Obviously some gambles will still pay off. But in general I feel like sticking to the template is an easier way to climb the ranks now. At least to a point. I've climbed 1.1m places over the last 10 weeks and my team is 84% template! The only real differentials I've had in that time is getting Gundo and Antonio before a lot of people did. I've been very template all the way through. The logic being you may miss the peaks but you miss the troughs too. I'm top of most of my mini-leagues and the other players have had some great scores, but I never get the dreadful ones that their punts seem to get quite regularly. I just keep ticking along. But right now I've just missed a few key template players. The likes of that **** Dallas, and at times Kane and Son a few months back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 24, 2021 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, BOF said: I've been very template all the way through. The logic being you may miss the peaks but you miss the troughs too. I'm top of most of my mini-leagues and the other players have had some great scores, but I never get the dreadful ones that their punts seem to get quite regularly. I just keep ticking along. But right now I've just missed a few key template players. The likes of that **** Dallas, and at times Kane and Son a few months back. Yeah I keep jumping on and off Kane and Son and I've paid the price for it a few times. Back on them both again now (probably, will probably get Son for Grealish this week) so hoping Spurs pick up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farlz Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I've never been more tempted to bin Salah than right now, Henderson is apparently out for 12 weeks so that's yet another big blow for Liverpool and should make the idea of removing Salah easier but then I look at his remaining fixtures and I'm not sure I've got the bottle to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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