Ollie Watkins

[Demitri_C]

I personally think we should cash in the summer if he hasnt signed a new contract

[Tom13]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

I like Ollie, always have, but there are one or two views like he only scores in purple patches, that have merit.

I thought "Sam" did a relevant analysis on Ollie on "The villa park podcast" last night......as unsavoury as we all want to admit, he made some salient points....check it out.

Ollie is a popular boy and has been great for us.....but he is off it, at the moment, his body language alone says it.

I think the "Heart " what Jhon Duran showed when he came on was a polar opposite of what Ollie is showing....Ollie needs to resurrect some physicality and effervesence back in to his game, and be hell bent on giving his opponents a hard time....He is and looks passive, he needs to snap out of it.

Goals do not always come from sheer sublime technique, like Duran and Diaby's ( disallowed) goals come from, as good as that is........sheer tenacity and will to fight for the ball, can bring rewards.

Ollie seems to have too much respect for the laundry lady, he needs to get his shorts dirty, and fight for that elusive goal.

"Too much respect for the laundry lady" love it

[Rugeley Villa]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

both had aggression....Ollie is lacking a bit of aggression ( with himself).....his whole demeanor right now is passive.

To take a penalty outside of technique, you need a ruthless approach.

Definitely agree Tro, you need a strong mentality. Also the fact he misses a lot of chances tells you he’s not one to rely on for penalties .

[TRO]

18 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Definitely agree Tro, you need a strong mentality. Also the fact he misses a lot of chances tells you he’s not one to rely on for penalties .

sadly, I think his mood in penalty taking, has drifted in to his overall game....its become unassertive, which is a shame.

Ollie does some good work, when he's on it.....He might need a bit of a break from it, and himself, because he is probably beating himself up.

Losing form, is not funny, and it eats away at you.....He needs support right now, from all of us....but of course games come thick and fast and we have to win them.

Its not easy to find a solution, and sometimes, you can try too hard, to overcome a form dip......He might need to be taken out of the firing line, for his own good.

We need to remind ourselves, he has been the only reliable striker in the squad, for some time, the reliance,  may have got to him a bit....I think is all Psychological with Ollie, he plays like he has the world on his shoulders right now.

The observations from fans have merit....but we need to ride the storm with him.....Loyalty is a two-way Street.

Edited September 18, 2023 by TRO

[Tomaszk]

13 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

He hasn't been very poor. 4 assists and a ECL hattrick isn't very poor, it's actually pretty good.

We'll have to disagree.

I have high expectations of Ollie because he's been brilliant for us. He's not been on it this year in most areas.

Shows how good he is getting those assists playing this poorly.

Fans are kidding themselves if they think he's playing well IMO.

Or looking at stats and not the game, which is of course an absolute sin.

16 hours ago, DJBOB said:

Occam’s razor - just not finishing his chances. 
 
Per 90, he is above his Villa career in expected goals, expected assists, shot creating actions, goal creating actions, and pass completion %. No surprise that we’re also outpacing our team expected goals so far too compared to last year. 
 
Just can’t get the ball over the line. Needs a jammy scuffed goal to get him back on the board. 

Agree.

I would like him to get his head up a bit more as well though. Some of the shots he's taking on are daft.

[Philosopher]

7 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

We'll have to disagree.

I have high expectations of Ollie because he's been brilliant for us. He's not been on it this year in most areas.

Shows how good he is getting those assists playing this poorly.

Fans are kidding themselves if they think he's playing well IMO.

Or looking at stats and not the game, which is of course an absolute sin.

Agree.

I would like him to get his head up a bit more as well though. Some of the shots he's taking on are daft.

In fact he's won 2 penalties. Two assist, and 3 goals, in 7 games. By anyone's measure that's a good return.

He had a stunner against Liverpool, like most of the team. Prem goals will come, just a matter of time. His link up play and running has been good.

[nick76]

2 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

He's contributed to 4 of our 11 goals same as Diaby. That makes him the main man. I could care less if he scores the goals or other people do from his involvement 

And yet if in a hypothetical, in the next league game we were only allowed to play Watkins or Diaby the majority of fans would choose Diaby I’m guessing because the performances and impact has been very different this season.  

Purely relying on stats starts the conversation of the El Ghazi effect where stats give a difference impression on the player’s ability to reality

[Tomaszk]

2 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

In fact he's won 2 penalties. Two assist, and 3 goals, in 7 games. By anyone's measure that's a good return.

I'll be honest I don't think a hat-trick against Lee Johnson's Hibs is a good barometer to judge a player. If we'd put Traore up front we'd have whipped them all the same.

2 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

His link up play and running has been good.

It's not been up to Ollie Watkins standards for me. Noticeable drop off. That's my main gripe! If his all round contribution was at his normal levels I'd be in here fighting off anyone saying he was playing badly because he had 0 league goals.

Early days, I want and fully expect him to improve. Hopefully starting with a few at Chelsea.

[IrishVilla10]

7 minutes ago, nick76 said:

And yet if in a hypothetical, in the next league game we were only allowed to play Watkins or Diaby the majority of fans would choose Diaby I’m guessing because the performances and impact has been very different this season.  

Purely relying on stats starts the conversation of the El Ghazi effect where stats give a difference impression on the player’s ability to reality

I’m a big fan of stats, probably over reliant on them especially when looking at players I barely get the chance to watch. Ollie hasn’t been playing well imo, and I don’t know if it’s the evolution of our play style or who we’ve played against so far but I’m not even seeing the basics from Ollie which carried him through the dry spells previously. The first half chance at the weekend when he’s one on one with Johnston needs to be going in the net.

[delboy54]

Was at the game but just watched the highlights and Ollie's shot that hit the post and rebounded of their keepers head was a sublime peice of skill to be honest and worthy of a goal.

 

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said:

I’m a big fan of stats, probably over reliant on them especially when looking at players I barely get the chance to watch. Ollie hasn’t been playing well imo, and I don’t know if it’s the evolution of our play style or who we’ve played against so far but I’m not even seeing the basics from Ollie which carried him through the dry spells previously. The first half chance at the weekend when he’s one on one with Johnston needs to be going in the net.

I’m a big fan of stats as well being from a finance background but we know from years of watching the game that stats are only one component when analysing a player.  I agree with everything you’ve said above, if he was only not scoring then fine but as you say he’s not playing well.

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

I personally think we should cash in the summer if he hasnt signed a new contract

He is going to sign a new contract. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

I thought he’s general play has been good. Just lacking goals. 
 

But Ollie has always divided opinion. 

[DJBOB]

50 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

We'll have to disagree.

I have high expectations of Ollie because he's been brilliant for us. He's not been on it this year in most areas.

Shows how good he is getting those assists playing this poorly.

Fans are kidding themselves if they think he's playing well IMO.

Or looking at stats and not the game, which is of course an absolute sin.

Agree.

I would like him to get his head up a bit more as well though. Some of the shots he's taking on are daft.

Yeah his shot selection has been a bit odd. 
 
This isn’t really an excuse for Ollie. Clearly should be putting them in the net but our spread of games have been odd. Strangely enough, I think Newcastle has been his best game so far. We were then involved in 2 low block nonsense games (Everton, Palace) and another one where he did okay in the main but only got an assist on the paper (Burnley).

I think if we’re at the back end of October and he’s not putting the goals in, then you’d have to wonder at some Duran rotation in the league. 
 
Right now, I’m not too concerned. In general - I think people swing too wildly from game to game though they are right to ask questions about Ollie’s conversion rate. 
 
Our xG is through the roof right now so we’re creating chances but Cash has been the main benefactor hilariously. 
 
Ollie outperformed is xG during his strong run last year and is now underperforming it. Over time, it will settle and so the goals will come for him. 

[jim]

Apologies if already mentioned, when Duran scored he didn’t immediately celebrate with the rest of them. He may have went over afterwards but initially he didn’t even look in Durans direction.

[CVByrne]

Would like him to sign the new contract. The longer it goes on the more worried I am he might leave

[nick76]

43 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

He is going to sign a new contract. 

What makes you so certain? In this new current climate he might try and run down his contract to get a deal where he wants.

[mikeyp102]

45 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

He is going to sign a new contract. 

Is he? Seems to have been rumbling on a long time now, surprised we haven’t heard anything yet.

[CVByrne]

Just to put data to this. Watkins in our last three games

xG captures the probability of a goal being scored from the position / situation the shot was taken from. while Post shot xG is the probability of the goal being scored after the shot was taken (ie how good was the shot). 

Watkins has had three post shot xG of 0.49 a 0.87 and a 0.86 all saved in his last 3 games all from 0.16, 0.17 and 0.37xG. Which means he took his chance well, struck it well and it was well saved by the keeper. 

Furthermore he has had 4 goal creating actions so far this season, one per game (with exception being Liverpool). 

It's tiresome for people to constantly appear when he's not scored for a while and say he's not good enough etc. Despite Watkins being a fantastic all round team player who has proven he scores at the rate of his expected goals and is very important for the team. He's always been a player to score in streaks too. 

Edited September 18, 2023 by CVByrne

[Woody1000]

I like stats when they back up the point I’m trying to make, but I like to rubbish them when they make my pov appear to be incorrect.