HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I mean, it's extremely shitty that this is what he's planning to do, but surely one of the dumbest things you can do with an Evil Plan is to tell everyone in the media that's what you're up to. You would hope that media outlets are going to be extremely explicit all night that the results coming in on election day are not representative of the final count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 The definitive prediction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 PiS did the same over here, not over an election, but packed the court (constitutional though) and got them to declare something illegal at a constitutional level. It's easy too, worryingly so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: I’ve seen a few articles suggesting Trump could win , the vast majority are firmly on a Biden landslide though ... but could it be the silent voter scenario again? I would hope that any article on the subject would acknowledge he could win. He has the incumbency bias, has a vocal support of millions of people, who have already shown they are prepared to vote in large enough numbers to elect him. That's before you even start on the suggestions that he might not exactly play fair in the immediate aftermath. Anyone who says that he can't win hasn't been paying attention. But the "shy Trump voter" doesn't really have much evidence behind it, in 2016 or 2020. Or at least any more than "shy Biden". The Pennsylvania housewife who picks up the phone to Gallup with her angry MAGA husband in earshot might want him to think something different to how she actually plans to vote. The second-generation Mexican in Arizona with immigrant parents who has grown up being told that his life will be easier if he just says what he thinks that white people want to hear? I don't think either of those two examples are large demographics, but I'd bet they are both higher than zero. A lot of potential Trump voters were missed from polls in 2016 - but as I mentioned in a previous post, it's more to do with how polls of this nature react to precedent. In 2012 the Midwest voters who said they were going to vote Romney never showed up, and turned a polling average of +1 Rommey to +4 Obama. So in 2016 they assumed the same, and were wrong. That's a bad prediction of turnout (in both 2012 and 2016), not shyness. I'm not a pollster, but I reckon that nobody who is, will be looking at 2020 and building their model will be thinking "those guys in their red caps don't look all that bothered about voting this year" Edited November 1, 2020 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Michelsen said: Available polling data right now gives Biden roughly 350 electoral votes. Of those, Florida, Arizona and Georgia are close and Trump could carry all of them. That still gives Biden 295 electoral votes. Next in line is Pennsylvania, which has been consistently polling in favour of Biden but is still close enough to plausibly flip. That still leaves Biden with 275 votes. Trump would then have to carry either one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota or North Carolina, neither of which seems very likely to happen given the available polling. Biden really doesn’t have to outperform Hillary Clinton by much at all to win, in terms of total votes. A few thousand votes in the right places is all he needs. Right now, a Trump reelection looks unlikely, but not entirely impossible. To flip this around, I believe Biden is roughly as likely to win Texas (!) as Trump is to win Pennsylvania and roughly as likely to win Ohio and Iowa as Trump is to win Florida. Not exactly, but comparable. Texas and Ohio would have Biden comfortably over 400 votes. While there is a plausible chance Trump could win the electoral collage, there is an equally plausible chance of him being completely swept off the map. Edited November 1, 2020 by Michelsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Michelsen said: To flip this around, I believe Biden is roughly as likely to win Texas (!) as Trump is to win Pennsylvania and roughly as likely to win Ohio and Iowa as Trump is to win Florida. Not exactly, but comparable. Texas and Ohio would have Biden comfortably over 400 votes. While there is a plausible chance Trump could win the electoral collage, there is an equally plausible chance of him being completely swept off the map. *Purely going by polling*, Texas has more chance of going to Biden than Pennsylvania to Trump. Of course, the polling may be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 By the way, 3 GOP candidates are currently in the midst of trying to invalidate 127,000 legitimate ballots cast in Harris County, Texas (Houston, essentially). They have now failed twice at the Texas Supreme Court, and are now trying their luck at a federal court. This is extremely bad stuff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: By the way, 3 GOP candidates are currently in the midst of trying to invalidate 127,000 legitimate ballots cast in Harris County, Texas (Houston, essentially). They have now failed twice at the Texas Supreme Court, and are now trying their luck at a federal court. This is extremely bad stuff: They won't win. The Texas Supreme Court vote result today was the nail in the coffin. At this point the GOP are throwing shit at the wall hoping something sticks. They know Trump will be beaten, it's just how much they can stoke a fire to create confusion and claim the result is illegitimate. Sounds ridiculous to say that in a 2 party 'Democratic' state, one of the parties has decided that their MO is cheating, but that is where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Yeah - it’s been a long term strategy to say he was cheated out of this election if he loses. Even in 2016 he claimed Obama interfered to try and cost him the presidency- disproven obviously, but it’s been repeated since by him. He knows he doesn’t have to win, just say he was wronged and no MAGA nutter will believe anything otherwise - they are “all in” on whatever he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I wonder why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 2, 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54771351 Quote Officials have covered up a noose on display near polling booths in Missouri, after local Democrats argued it could intimidate black voters. The incident is one of a number of controversial occurrences in the final days of the US election campaign. Such a lovely time to be alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted November 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 hours ago, TheAuthority said: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54771351 Such a lovely time to be alive. This is the atmosphere which Trump has encouraged. He's probably set race relations back by 100 years in USA. It just staggers me, absolutely staggers me that any right minded person could even think of voting for him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted November 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 2, 2020 The whole thing feels like the collapse of The Roman Empire. No wonder Russia and China are so keen for him to win. China in particular steaming ahead with global domination whilst America is engulfed in turmoil and inner looking self protectionism. A lot of this inner turmoil won't go if he loses either, it's going to be around for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 hours ago, sidcow said: This is the atmosphere which Trump has encouraged. He's probably set race relations back by 100 years in USA. It just staggers me, absolutely staggers me that any right minded person could even think of voting for him. The problem is a lot of Americans don’t know much about things outside of their own country, I remember many not knowing where Iraq is. There are likely many who genuinely believe what he says. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 hours ago, avfcDJ said: I wonder why Well he did promise a wall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 I was watching all the shops and businesses boarding up in the expectation of large scale violence. America is such a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted November 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) This is the kind of thing you would expect to see/hear at election time in third world politically unstable countries, not a western democracy let alone what is meant to be the pre-eminent democracy. It's utter madness and you surely don't need a lack of understanding of the world outside of your borders to see that. Edited November 2, 2020 by sidcow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, sidcow said: This is the kind of thing you would expect to see/hear at election time in third world politically unstable countries, not a western democracy let alone what is meant to be the pre-eminent democracy. It's utter madness and you surely don't need a lack of understanding of the world outside of your borders to see that. If this was happening elsewhere, America would be stepping in to stop it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Genie Posted November 2, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, avfcDJ said: If this was happening elsewhere, America would be stepping in to stop it. Or fuel it depending on what suited them best. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 hours ago, sidcow said: This is the atmosphere which Trump has encouraged. He's probably set race relations back by 100 years in USA. It just staggers me, absolutely staggers me that any right minded person could even think of voting for him. Na, he's done more for the blacks than Abe Lincoln, that's what he said himself - who am I to say he's wrong? Well done that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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