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Relegation thread


Knutserov13

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1 hour ago, MCU said:

So basically, anything other than a West Ham win tonight and we're in shit street.

No, a Watford win is fine too, even the desired result according to some (me included, I think! There are good arguments on both sides).

Watford win = we’re more likely to have it on our own hands albeit in a straight shoot vs West Ham.

West Ham win = playing them already safe and we’re more likely to catch Watford including their GD, as long as we can match their results +3 points.
 

Draw = we need at least the same vs Arsenal or we’re officially gone.

All assumes Bournemouth get 3 points and -2 GD on us or fewer points.

Just looking forward to tonight being done now so we can stop going through these permutations.

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3 hours ago, omariqy said:

You still have to retain some hope otherwise there is no point in being a fan. However, so many things have to go for us that it is highly unlikely. 

The best case scenario for us in the coming days

- West Ham win by at least 2 clear goals today

- Arsenal either win in the cup or take it to extra time

- Saints get at least a draw on Sunday

- Man City beat Watford by 3 clear goals

This would mean the table would look like the following before we play Arsenal. 

17 Watford FC Watford FC 37 8 10 19 35:60 -26 34
18 AFC Bournemouth AFC Bournemouth 37 8 8 21 38:63 -25 32
19 Aston Villa Aston Villa 36 8 7 21 39:66 -27 31
20 Norwich City Norwich City 36 5 6 25 26:68 -42 21

We then again have a cup final game and mentality going into the Arsenal game. A win could put you in a place where you probably only really need to match Watford's result to stay up. 

The simple thing is we need Watford to lose their last three really. It probably won't happen but there's obviously a chance they could lose tonight, v Man. City and then at Arsenal last day who may still be in europa contention.

They finish on 34 and hopefully they'll lose two of those games by two goals so they'd end on -26 GD.

Another reason AEG miss was so bad is due to us not just needing to win a game but also ideally winning it by more than one goal as we did v Palace. If we lost to Arsenal 2-1 and then beat Watford 1 nil we'd remain on -27 so wouldn't finish above Watford even if they lost their last 3.

That's all before adding Bournemouth to the mix again.

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54 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Yes the supporters deserve better. Average of 41600 is incredible for a team at the bottom and would be more if we had a bigger potential. Potential at Villa is great we deserve a better manager and better players. We should not accept mediocrity and being a yoyo club

There are loads of Uniteds, lots of Citys and Towns, a goodly sprinkling of Wanderers and Rovers and even a few Albions. But there is only one Villa - the greatest name in football in every sense

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1 hour ago, villalad21 said:

Mathematically relegated if we lose to Arsenal and Watford - Bournemouth draw today.

Worst part of it is.. it's a very likely scenario.

You're so relentless it really always comes across as if you'd prefer it this way.

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Wolves' fans will still obsess over us even if we're in the championship. Just had a look on their forum and one the top threads is 'Aston Villa RIP', started on Saturday and is already five pages long, bearing in mind on there it's forty posts per page, so the same thread on here would be ten pages long. They've also got another recent thread which is about ten pages long which is 'laughing at delusional Villa fans'.

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It's funny Wolves have never ever really been a consistent threat at all to Aston Villa, they should remember that. 

They have had a couple of years of been the top dog in the Midlands and it is going to their heads. Personally good luck to them, I don't really care too much about them!

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11 minutes ago, useless said:

Wolves' fans will still obsess over us even if we're in the championship. Just had a look on their forum and one the top threads is 'Aston Villa RIP', started on Saturday and is already five pages long, bearing in mind on there it's forty posts per page, so the same thread on here would be ten pages long. They've also got another recent thread which is about ten pages long which is 'laughing at delusional Villa fans'.

All it could take for Wolves to start falling is for them to lose there Nuno and there frontline and they could start there fall if they cant find the right people or players to replace what they lose.

It could happen to anyone really that's why I dont really ever slate clubs and there fans and leave them to just talk about us. There must be a bit of jealousy or something that makes fans of other clubs want to talk about us like that, despite being more succesfull run in recent seasons,madness.

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Another thing I've noticed looking at other teams' forums is that many of them, not just Wolves fans, seem convinced that if we go down we're going to be financially ruined and will face massive FFP penalties. I think they're going to be disappointed in that regard, if we had have done anything wrong with relation to the FFP from the last time we were in the championship the EFL wouldn't have had to wait for us to be relegated to take action.

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1 hour ago, VillaChris said:

The simple thing is we need Watford to lose their last three really. It probably won't happen but there's obviously a chance they could lose tonight, v Man. City and then at Arsenal last day who may still be in europa contention.

They finish on 34 and hopefully they'll lose two of those games by two goals so they'd end on -26 GD.

Another reason AEG miss was so bad is due to us not just needing to win a game but also ideally winning it by more than one goal as we did v Palace. If we lost to Arsenal 2-1 and then beat Watford 1 nil we'd remain on -27 so wouldn't finish above Watford even if they lost their last 3.

That's all before adding Bournemouth to the mix again.

I havnt done the math but what would the table look like if Villa, Bourenmouth, westham and watford all end up on 35 points or same points who then goes down out of the four teams,who out of the four clubs takes residence in the final 3 with Norwich.lol.

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2 minutes ago, useless said:

Another thing I've noticed looking at other teams' forums is that many of them, not just Wolves fans, seem convinced that if we go down we're going to be financially ruined and will face massive FFP penalties. I think they're going to be disappointed in that regard, if we had have done anything wrong with relation to the FFP from the last time we were in the championship the EFL wouldn't have had to wait for us to be relegated to take action.

adding to the fact that FFP is cancelled next year

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If we had forwards who could put the ball in the back of the net, I'd be much more confident we could do it. In terms of performances, I think we've been the best of the lot since the restart along with Bournemouth after their recent resurgence. The problem is, all of the goals we score bar Trezeguet's second against Palace have been from set pieces. Samatta and Davis are just not cutting it. As bad as he'd been, I think Wesley would have bagged a couple by now. We really **** up with the striker situation this summer.

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1 hour ago, MCU said:

Who will the poor Wolves have to obsess over should we go down? If I had a penny for everytime I've heard/seen 'mind the gap'.

Ern wba the team secknd innthe championship and their direct rivals?

God how depresssing wba and wolves in pl and us in championship.  Thats never happened before in the pl

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31 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Ern wba the team secknd innthe championship and their direct rivals?

God how depresssing wba and wolves in pl and us in championship.  Thats never happened before in the pl

Cheers Geoff. 

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1 hour ago, useless said:

Wolves' fans will still obsess over us even if we're in the championship. Just had a look on their forum and one the top threads is 'Aston Villa RIP', started on Saturday and is already five pages long, bearing in mind on there it's forty posts per page, so the same thread on here would be ten pages long. They've also got another recent thread which is about ten pages long which is 'laughing at delusional Villa fans'.

Even more remarkable when you consider how few of them can actually read and write. 

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What will be will be tonight. We will need to get anything from 3 to all 6 points, from our remaining two games to stay up. That sounds a very big ask, but getting 4 points from our last 2 games, seemed likely to be beyond us a week ago! 

Arsenal will be fresh from a cup semi-final when they meet us and may be out of the cup, their prospects of qualification for the Europa League also appear to be a bit of a long shot. West Ham may be on the beach by the last day, or have their nerves jangling, because they need something from their game against us. Who knows, it might not be too bad a time to be playing those two?

We might still pull off what would be an even greater escape, than it would have been had we won last night. Not winning at Everton yesterday does make survival much more difficult, but it doesn't make it beyond us, quite yet! 

   

        

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