Generic Virus Thread

[villakram]

56 minutes ago, Jonesy7211 said:

Not trying to pick at you, so please don't take this as a slight, but surely you must see that the vaccine is as much about ensuring that both the number of people dying and the number of people continuing to spread the virus comes down as much as possible?

In my mind I want both numbers to be as low as possible, and the last 9 months have shown, in the UK at least, the only way we're going to do that is with a vaccine that's widely adopted and quickly rolled out. We can't rely on social distancing, bubbles, lockdowns, or even social responsibility.

That's a very broad statement with many hidden details. How one defines "as much as possible" is very important and will be an interesting test of civil rights in various jurisdictions globally.

Covid19 is now endemic and large fractions of the population laugh it off as the human immune system is quite robust. With these mRNA treatments, and developing immunity it will drop back down to having Flu like annual effects, or it might even go away and be superseded by a Flu variant in future winters. There's no need for great alarm and panic any longer.

Edited December 11, 2020 by villakram

[lapal_fan]

I didn't want to bring it up, but thalidomide was thought to be absolutely fine as well, hence why morning sick women were injected with it to cure that aliment.

The medical processes haven't actually changed that much since the 70s, the methodology is very similar.

This is a new type of vaccine, replacing mRNA protein strands and "boosting" or "reprogramming" it to release antibodies to attack the virus.

It's right at the forefront of medical technology and it's brilliant - but, there could be negative reactions in certain people and before my kids get it, I'd like assurance - through data - to confirm my belief that this is a safe and good vaccine.

I can put up with a normal adverse drug reaction, but there's a time lag between implementation and data that I'll wait for.

[Jonesy7211]

3 minutes ago, villakram said:

That's a very broad statement with many hidden details. How one defines "as much as possible" is very important and will be an interesting test of civil rights in various jurisdictions globally.

Covid19 is now endemic and large fractions of the population laugh it off as the human immune system is quite robust. With these mRNA treatments, and developing immunity it will drop back down to having Flu like annual effects, or it might even go away and be superseded by a Flu variant in future winters. There's no need for great alarm and panic any longer.

You mention large numbers of people laughing it off, and I think therein lies the difference in our views. There's over 60k people in the UK who haven't laughed it off. Would a vaccine have saved all of these? Certainly not. But it would have reduced the number.

We've shown we can't progress in the short term without a vaccine, but I do agree that in time this will be handled much the same way as seasonal flu once our immune systems adapt.

[sharkyvilla]

One thing I don't understand is that there is a different strain of flu every winter isnt there?  Yet we always have a vaccine for it in time.  Is the process a lot different to this?

Edited December 11, 2020 by sharkyvilla

[Davkaus]

41 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

One thing I don't understand is that there is a different strain of flu every winter isnt there?  Yet we always have a vaccine for it in time.  Is the process a lot different to this?

I only have a rudimentary understanding of this, but I believe there are a couple of factors here.

While the flu is evolving, the vaccinations are, I believe relatively minor adjustments to existing vaccines, as the mutations tend to keep the virus fairly similar to the previous strains we knew about. Developing a vaccine for a novel virus is a whole other ball game. 

Even then though, it takes several months. We prepare the vaccine well in advance for flu, we don't wait for it to become a major issue and only then begin developing the vaccine. Covid blindsided us, but we always get a head start on the flu because we know we'll need it every year. Researchers around the world monitor for flu variants, and come to a consensus of which are likely to be the next flu season's most problematic strains, and then the begin making the vaccine months in advance. Sometimes they get it wrong and we have a particularly bad flu season.

[snowychap]

5 hours ago, Jonesy7211 said:

The medical team said the Pfizer one did, and the others likely will as they're all so similar.

Bloomberg:

Quote

Pfizer Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine prevents symptomatic cases of the virus, but it’s not clear if the shot keeps the disease from being transmitted, U.S. Food and Drug Administration staff found in a report issued Tuesday.

The conclusion highlights a major unknown about vaccine candidates that persists ahead of an ambitious U.S. rollout of millions of shots: How effective they’ll be in stemming the spread of coronavirus at a population level.

...

Because the shots from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech SE avert symptomatic cases of Covid-19, their wide use could prevent virus transmission, the FDA staff report said.

Link:

Quote

Holt questioned Pfizer chairman Albert Bourla. When asked by Holt if he would be able to transmit the infection to other people if he is immunized, the Pfizer CEO replied that "I think this is something that needs to be examined. We are not certain about that right now with what we know,” Bourla responded.

AstraZeneca and researchers at Oxford University suggested their vaccine had shown "signs of reduced transmission, of people spreading the disease from one person to another."

I think, perhaps, 'the medical team' ought to be careful what they promise.

Sure, they may have said that there's a good chance or it's likely that it will but that is the point that I am making.

5 hours ago, Jonesy7211 said:

They also said the moderna one will be be approved next Thursday and we'll get more info on it then. The Oxford one at the end of December. Hopefully more info for everyone then.

Yes, hopefully more info for everyone and let's hope that the info is the correct info and not people overpromising things.

Also, as per the previous video I linked a few pages ago, it will be important to know whether the approvals will be temporary emergency approvals (with caveats as to what can be done with particular batches, &c.) with a view to a future full approval or full approval.. Given the questions about the Oxford 'trial', it does still seem concerning to me that these appear to have been waved away as unimportant given the huge weight of hope being placed upon it.

Edited December 12, 2020 by snowychap

[sidcow]

12 hours ago, lapal_fan said:

I didn't want to bring it up, but thalidomide was thought to be absolutely fine as well, hence why morning sick women were injected with it to cure that aliment.

The medical processes haven't actually changed that much since the 70s, the methodology is very similar.

This is a new type of vaccine, replacing mRNA protein strands and "boosting" or "reprogramming" it to release antibodies to attack the virus.

It's right at the forefront of medical technology and it's brilliant - but, there could be negative reactions in certain people and before my kids get it, I'd like assurance - through data - to confirm my belief that this is a safe and good vaccine.

I can put up with a normal adverse drug reaction, but there's a time lag between implementation and data that I'll wait for.

Not true. 

They have significantly better modelling now of how different drugs interact with the body, how things combine. 

Thalidomide would have literally been a try it and see for long term complications. It was actually developed in the 50s. 

As a direct result of Thalidomide rules for testing and licensing of drugs around the world went through massive changes. 

As they have been as pains to point out, none of these tests have been cut.   It's gone through the same rigorous process. 

The time which has been saved has been in throwing massive funds at it and running processes side by side instead of consecutively. 

[mjmooney]

13 hours ago, villakram said:

Covid19 is now endemic and large fractions of the population laugh it off as the human immune system is quite robust.

Sure. And 'large fractions' of the population were totally unaffected by polio, smallpox and diphtheria. Don't know why we bothered with all that scaremongering and vaccination. 

[lapal_fan]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

Not true. 

They have significantly better modelling now of how different drugs interact with the body, how things combine. 

Thalidomide would have literally been a try it and see for long term complications. It was actually developed in the 50s. 

As a direct result of Thalidomide rules for testing and licensing of drugs around the world went through massive changes. 

As they have been as pains to point out, none of these tests have been cut.   It's gone through the same rigorous process. 

The time which has been saved has been in throwing massive funds at it and running processes side by side instead of consecutively. 

No, that's not true either.  There may be changes, but the science behind medicine testing methodology hasn't changed much, but it is more robust now and larger scale testing must be done, more to cover the company testing it than anything.

The reason this vaccine has been "rushed" is because it's piggy backed vaccines which have been around since 2003, so phases 1 & 2 were already done on an almost like for like basis.

That's not reason I'm wary about giving it my kids.

[bickster]

For the vaccine naysayers by you know... an actual doctor in the NHS.

 

[Genie]

New German lockdown from Wednesday until 10th January

Quote

Germany will impose new lockdown measures

Chancellor Angela Merkel says existing measures have failed to get the COVID-19 outbreak under control, and new restrictions will now coming into place.

Schools will close, as will most shops, from 16 December, with employers being asked to allow staff to work from home.

Ms Merkel also announced that the consumption of alcohol in public will be banned.

The German leader says the agreements will be in place until 10 January.

Sky news

[markavfc40]

30 minutes ago, Genie said:

New German lockdown from Wednesday until 10th January

Sky news

The Germans don't f about do they and it is reflected in the fact they have had a third of the covid deaths we have had and aren't taking anything like the economic hit/downturn that we will. Could learn a lot from them if only we didn't have such a superiority complex over the rest of Europe.

Edited December 13, 2020 by markavfc40

[mjmooney]

5 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

The Germans don't f about do they and it is reflected in the fact they have had a third of the covid deaths we have had and aren't taking anything like the economic hit/downturn that we will. Could learn a lot from them if only we didn't have such a superiority complex over the rest of Europe.

Interesting comment from my neice who has recently moved to Germany (this surely can't be true - can it?): 

Quote

There is no such thing as online grocery shopping (or very little opportunity of) in Germany. German internet structure is very basic and unreliable and my experience is that most German people are reluctant to use technology or not able to. Most transactions in Germany are face to face. Most shops prefer cash only and don’t accept cards or only EC cards... 

 

[chrisp65]

The figures here are close to getting out of control. I think they’re hoping to just ride it out until after Christmas but I think any day now they’re going to have to admit that idea has failed. We will then have the chaos of new lockdown restrictions a week before Christmas, which will then ‘need’ to be ignored because everyone has planned for the Christmas they were promised.

Really feels like they’ve done well for 8, 9 months and dropped the ball right at the critical point.

 

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

Interesting comment from my neice who has recently moved to Germany (this surely can't be true - can it?): 

 

That is consistent with an experience I had about 10 years ago. A colleague came over from Germany and we popped to a Tesco to grab a sandwich. When he saw the self serve tills it blew his mind. He said they had nothing like that in Germany.

Edited December 13, 2020 by Genie

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

The figures here are close to getting out of control. I think they’re hoping to just ride it out until after Christmas but I think any day now they’re going to have to admit that idea has failed. We will then have the chaos of new lockdown restrictions a week before Christmas, which will then ‘need’ to be ignored because everyone has planned for the Christmas they were promised.

Really feels like they’ve done well for 8, 9 months and dropped the ball right at the critical point.

 

The whole thing is a mess (nothing new).

Everything else has been last minute, but the Christmas 3 households, unlimited numbers was announced way too early. Now they have created a new mess. **** dick heads.

[markavfc40]

They should, but they won't, go back on the Christmas relaxation of rules, Raab was clear about that this morning.

As @chrisp65and @Geniesaid they have made a rod for their own back by promising people they could meet up with 3 other households for 5 days over Christmas and they feel they daren't go back on it now regardless of how many lives it is likely to cost. 

Relaxing the rules so much over Christmas needed to be on the proviso we would get down to the levels we had in June/July when they relaxed the rules then but they were never going to get anywhere near that with shops/schools and in some areas hospitality open on top of it being winter and people spending way more time in doors.  

[Davkaus]

13 minutes ago, Genie said:

That is consistent with an experience I had about 10 years ago. A colleague came over from Germany and we popped to a Tesco to grab a sandwich. When he saw the self serve tills it blew his mind. He said they had nothing like that in Germany.

They haven't taken off in a lot of countries. I still hate the bloody things. "So we can put people out of work, and instead the customer has to do the job".

[Genie]

Just now, Davkaus said:

They haven't taken off in a lot of countries. I still hate the bloody things. "So we can put people out of work, and instead the customer has to do the job".

That’s a very generic response. I’ve used them plenty of times to quickly pay for something that would have otherwise taken longer in a queue (especially in a big supermarket).

[bannedfromHandV]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

That’s a very generic response. I’ve used them plenty of times to quickly pay for something that would have otherwise taken longer in a queue (especially in a big supermarket).

Also handy when you go in the local co op and pick up £20 worth of crisps, chocolate and milkshake and then don’t need to suffer the embarrassment of going to the counter to have it all packed and paid.