Generic Virus Thread

[Genie]

First batch of the Pfizer vaccine is in the UK and first people will get them from the 14th

[ender4]

54 minutes ago, darrenm said:

What other health problems would people have that would kill them within 30 days but wasn't made any worse by having COVID?

The original death figures were well under the actual deaths because they weren't counting care homes. Only hospital deaths were counted. Also plenty of people will have died from COVID without having a test.

So the FT and the eventually the ONS did their excess deaths analysis which have become the best source of information. It's shown in the chart I've posted above. If there's normally 100k deaths in a month and it was 120k in the same month this year, it doesn't matter how they were recorded, those 20k extra were COVID related.

They could have been going to die from cancer, pneumonia, old age, or sudden trauma.... and then caught Covid whilst they were in hospital/care home dying anyway. 
 

They did originally undercount the care home deaths, but once they realised, they caught up to the correct number by adding them back into the official numbers.

Yes, agree with your excess deaths point.

Im not saying they are definitely under-counted, just wondering why they can’t be more scientific and tally the count from death certificates.

[blandy]

26 minutes ago, ender4 said:

just wondering why they can’t be more scientific and tally the count from death certificates.

Death certificates are not necessarily particularly accurate, I've found out.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, darrenm said:

What other health problems would people have that would kill them within 30 days but wasn't made any worse by having COVID?

The original death figures were well under the actual deaths because they weren't counting care homes. Only hospital deaths were counted. Also plenty of people will have died from COVID without having a test.

So the FT and the eventually the ONS did their excess deaths analysis which have become the best source of information. It's shown in the chart I've posted above. If there's normally 100k deaths in a month and it was 120k in the same month this year, it doesn't matter how they were recorded, those 20k extra were COVID related.

Unless they were caused by people being scared at home and not seeking early treatment for illnesses they otherwise would have? A lot of other ‘normal’ causes of death are much higher in the UK this year (stroke, heart attack etc). 

I’m interested to see the final tally for deaths in Sweden this year. It’s currently looking like it will be a fairly normal year with no unusual number of deaths, despite (or perhaps because of) no lockdown measures. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

 

 

 

 

[bickster]

Did either T3 Lockdown, National Lockdown or Mass Testing aftect the rolling rate in Liverpool City Region

I done an analysis. Figures are the rolling rate (seemed more sensible than case numbers) for each Borough in the weeks leading up to the T3 Lockdown and through National Lockdown and the beginning of Liverppol's Mass Testing

Important Dates:

14/10 Liverpool City Region enters T3 Lockdown

5/11 National Lockdown 2 begins

6/11 Start of the Mass Testing in the borough of Liverpool (only)

 

03/10/2020 10/10/2020 17/10/2020 24/10/2020 31/10/2020 07/11/2020 14/11/2020 21/11/2020 28/11/2020 Liverpool 591.9 763.8 603.6 498.6 336.9 241.9 279.5 161.2 91.9 Sefton 327.1 465.3 424.4 442.1 306.1 276.8 281.38 155.9 99 Knowsley 518.4 720.5 658.9 591.3 404.3 330.8 285 161.1 119.3 Wirral 210.5 304.9 260.8 302.2 235.8 212.6 177.5 126.8 60.5 St Helens 331.7 445.2 415.9 472.4 388.7 326.7 290.2 186.6 139.5 Halton 309.9 421.1 325.3 339.2 276.6 241.9 252.7 201.7 142.2
I'm not going to say right now what I think But I thought I'd put this out there for anyone interested

[darrenm]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Did either T3 Lockdown, National Lockdown or Mass Testing aftect the rolling rate in Liverpool City Region

I done an analysis. Figures are the rolling rate (seemed more sensible than case numbers) for each Borough in the weeks leading up to the T3 Lockdown and through National Lockdown and the beginning of Liverppol's Mass Testing

Important Dates:

14/10 Liverpool City Region enters T3 Lockdown

5/11 National Lockdown 2 begins

6/11 Start of the Mass Testing in the borough of Liverpool (only)

 

03/10/2020 10/10/2020 17/10/2020 24/10/2020 31/10/2020 07/11/2020 14/11/2020 21/11/2020 28/11/2020 Liverpool 591.9 763.8 603.6 498.6 336.9 241.9 279.5 161.2 91.9 Sefton 327.1 465.3 424.4 442.1 306.1 276.8 281.38 155.9 99 Knowsley 518.4 720.5 658.9 591.3 404.3 330.8 285 161.1 119.3 Wirral 210.5 304.9 260.8 302.2 235.8 212.6 177.5 126.8 60.5 St Helens 331.7 445.2 415.9 472.4 388.7 326.7 290.2 186.6 139.5 Halton 309.9 421.1 325.3 339.2 276.6 241.9 252.7 201.7 142.2
I'm not going to say right now what I think But I thought I'd put this out there for anyone interested

What's your X axis?

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

Figures are the rolling rate

 

[sidcow]

30 minutes ago, darrenm said:

What's your X axis?

Why

Edited December 3, 2020 by sidcow

[darrenm]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

Why

Zzzzz

[ml1dch]

 

 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Did either T3 Lockdown, National Lockdown or Mass Testing aftect the rolling rate in Liverpool City Region

I done an analysis. Figures are the rolling rate (seemed more sensible than case numbers) for each Borough in the weeks leading up to the T3 Lockdown and through National Lockdown and the beginning of Liverppol's Mass Testing

Important Dates:

14/10 Liverpool City Region enters T3 Lockdown

5/11 National Lockdown 2 begins

6/11 Start of the Mass Testing in the borough of Liverpool (only)

 

03/10/2020 10/10/2020 17/10/2020 24/10/2020 31/10/2020 07/11/2020 14/11/2020 21/11/2020 28/11/2020 Liverpool 591.9 763.8 603.6 498.6 336.9 241.9 279.5 161.2 91.9 Sefton 327.1 465.3 424.4 442.1 306.1 276.8 281.38 155.9 99 Knowsley 518.4 720.5 658.9 591.3 404.3 330.8 285 161.1 119.3 Wirral 210.5 304.9 260.8 302.2 235.8 212.6 177.5 126.8 60.5 St Helens 331.7 445.2 415.9 472.4 388.7 326.7 290.2 186.6 139.5 Halton 309.9 421.1 325.3 339.2 276.6 241.9 252.7 201.7 142.2
I'm not going to say right now what I think But I thought I'd put this out there for anyone interested

I might be being a bit thick, but can’t work out what implication this graph is telling me.

All regions went down after lockdown and carried on falling?

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, ender4 said:

I might be being a bit thick, but can’t work out what implication this graph is telling me.

All regions went down after lockdown and carried on falling?

Well for starters, the rate was falling even before the tier 3 lockdown (not the national one), Weeks 1 and 2 are pre any lockdown and week 3 is unlikely to be showing much sign of the lockdown due to the lag in being exposed and having symptoms. Remember LCR has effectively been in Lockdown for 2 months

Secondly, the only effect the mass testing has seemingly had is a minor spike in the one week following it starting as the lines continue to fall at a pretty similar rate to previously after that

In fact week 4, the first week you'd imagine lockdown to be possibly having an effect, 4 of the 6 Boroughs get another spike

[Mark Albrighton]

Apologies if already posted.

 

[bickster]

So, like I said, the logistics of the Pfizer Vaccine make that list of priorities a load of old bollocks, it's now official

The over 80's and care home staff will be vaccinated if and when they get to a hospital for some other treatment, if the numpty on the telly is to be believed.

And NHS staff have also been dropped down the pecking order, still they've had claps, what more do they want

The batch of 800,000 vaccines (notice its shrunk) will likely be the only batch of this vaccine we recieve for quite some time.

The vaccine comes in batches of 975 and they are still working out if they can be split up safely into lower batches

Thank f*** for Brexit

[sidcow]

7 minutes ago, bickster said:

So, like I said, the logistics of the Pfizer Vaccine make that list of priorities a load of old bollocks, it's now official

The over 80's and care home staff will be vaccinated if and when they get to a hospital for some other treatment, if the numpty on the telly is to be believed.

And NHS staff have also been dropped down the pecking order, still they've had claps, what more do they want

The batch of 800,000 vaccines (notice its shrunk) will likely be the only batch of this vaccine we recieve for quite some time.

The vaccine comes in batches of 975 and they are still working out if they can be split up safely into lower batches

Thank f*** for Brexit

To be fair it appears to be the MHRA who are setting the rules about how the vaccine is to be stored, further transported and split.  It seems to be their rules which is making it difficult.  It seems odd to me after what we've been told about it but I trust they know more about this kind of thing than me. 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

To be fair it appears to be the MHRA who are setting the rules about how the vaccine is to be stored, further transported and split.  It seems to be their rules which is making it difficult.  It seems odd to me after what we've been told about it but I trust they know more about this kind of thing than me. 

I think you're missing the point. The MHRA rules for storage and transportation have been known about for quite some time, them being the controlling body an all that. Do you imagine someone from Govt, say the Health Minister might have had discussions with them about it before drawing up the list?

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

I think you're missing the point. The MHRA rules for storage and transportation have been known about for quite some time, them being the controlling body an all that. Do you imagine someone from Govt, say the Health Minister might have had discussions with them about it before drawing up the list?

Have they?

The majority of the data about this vaccine was only released a couple of weeks ago and the authority was only issued a couple of days ago.  I expect most of their energies have been spent looking at the efficacy and safety of it in the first instance.  The storage and distribution rules probably only came after they had looked at the former.

[bickster]

Just now, sidcow said:

Have they?

The majority of the data about this vaccine was only released a couple of weeks ago and the authority was only issued a couple of days ago.  I expect most of their energies have been spent looking at the efficacy and safety of it in the first instance.  The storage and distribution rules probably only came after they had looked at the former.

How long have you known it needed to be stored at very cold temperatures?

It didn't just land on their desk

This knowledge has been in the public domain for a substantial time.

There are always rules about storing vaccines and the amount of time they can be out of cold storage and how many times they can be transported. It's standard stuff with vaccines

[blandy]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

Do you imagine someone from Govt, say the Health Minister might have had discussions with them about it before drawing up the list?

Good grief no! This Government? you serious? That would imply basic competence.

[darrenm]

I expect the Oxford vaccine will pretty quickly get approved anyway and that will be available alongside Pfizer until that runs out.