Douglas Luiz

[Philosopher]

38 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Yeah we're entering into the tricky period teams outside the Big 6 suffer from when they do well. Their players attract interest. The problem we face is we can't match the salary on offer from the biggest clubs without Champions League football boosting our profile and the boost on revenue.

For Luiz who's contract is up in 2026. Does he feel like the time is right to make that next step up to teams competing for PL and Champions League. Where he becomes an automatic in the Brazil squad. 

I also don't think we shouldn't discount how beneficial an 80-100m sale would be for us in FFP terms especially in the more stringent European rules. Especially as we have Jack's 100m sale roll off our 3 year accounts for FFP calculations at the end of next season when the 70% squad cost cap comes in for Europe.

I do think we want to keep him however. I just don't think we'll have anything on a contract until summer 2025 when we've had two bites trying to get CL under Emery. He will still hold a lot of value even with 1 year left on contract. 

But overall. People need to accept the way we progress is going to be about squad turnover. Fees coming in for players sold and new players coming in. 

There is another couple of aspects to this. 

The first is that the so called top clubs poach players from the group just below them in order to weaken them to prevent themselves from being usurped. They see us as a threat now so they aim to weaken us by taking our best players, and strengthen themselves in the process. They will come for Watkins, Ramsey, Diaby and Kamara too.

Man City did it the other way round by using unspeakable sums of money. But they were an exception. Ironically City poaching Barry and Milner sucked the heart of MON's team out. Then they did it to Arsenal!

The other aspect is that the only teams to break into that top 4-6 is Tottenham, City, and more recently Newcastle. Newcastle and City have huge sums of money so they don't / didn't fear others poaching their players as they can blow anyone out the water in regards to wages. And the players know that the clubs only trajectory is up.

Tottenham are the only club to break into what was then a top four, organically. They did it through fighting tooth and nail to keep their best players at the club and when that wasn't possible extorting (with unheard of valuations) the interested clubs, and selling to foreign teams if possible. They didn't want to strengthen Man U so they sold Kane to Bayern, they did the same with Bale to Madrid.

History tells us selling your best players to fund a push up the table rarely works out. The only exception to this is when you can go out an buy an equally good player for the same money or less. But if there is such a player, with our standing we can't compete with the top clubs who will surely snap him up. That's the unfair situation ANY team trying to change the status quo has to overcome.

What we need to do is sell the players performing well, that are at their limit (in terms of capability) for inflated fees (more than they are worth). And keep the players that are genuine top class. And also keep the players performing well that still have room for growth.

Selling Doug (as he is emerging as a genuine top class player) is not going to progress us. On the flipside while I absolutely love McGinn at his age he hasn't really got much room for improvement. So for me, if we could get 50 million for him I'd take it. Selling Digne, when he is 30 and a high earner makes sense if a viable offer came. Selling Ramsey would be utter stupidness.

We need to sell on our terms. Nobody else's!

 

[QldVilla]

25 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

There is another couple of aspects to this. 

The first is that the so called top clubs poach players from the group just below them in order to weaken them to prevent themselves from being usurped. They see us as a threat now so they aim to weaken us by taking our best players, and strengthen themselves in the process. They will come for Watkins, Ramsey, Diaby and Kamara too.

Man City did it the other way round by using unspeakable sums of money. But they were an exception. Ironically City poaching Barry and Milner sucked the heart of MON's team out. Then they did it to Arsenal!

The other aspect is that the only teams to break into that top 4-6 is Tottenham, City, and more recently Newcastle. Newcastle and City have huge sums of money so they don't / didn't fear others poaching their players as they can blow anyone out the water in regards to wages. And the players know that the clubs only trajectory is up.

Tottenham are the only club to break into what was then a top four, organically. They did it through fighting tooth and nail to keep their best players at the club and when that wasn't possible extorting (with unheard of valuations) the interested clubs, and selling to foreign teams if possible. They didn't want to strengthen Man U so they sold Kane to Bayern, they did the same with Bale to Madrid.

History tells us selling your best players to fund a push up the table rarely works out. The only exception to this is when you can go out an buy an equally good player for the same money or less. But if there is such a player, with our standing we can't compete with the top clubs who will surely snap him up. That's the unfair situation ANY team trying to change the status quo has to overcome.

What we need to do is sell the players performing well, that are at their limit (in terms of capability) for inflated fees (more than they are worth). And keep the players that are genuine top class. And also keep the players performing well that still have room for growth.

Selling Doug (as he is emerging as a genuine top class player) is not going to progress us. On the flipside while I absolutely love McGinn at his age he hasn't really got much room for improvement. So for me, if we could get 50 million for him I'd take it. Selling Digne, when he is 30 and a high earner makes sense if a viable offer came. Selling Ramsey would be utter stupidness.

We need to sell on our terms. Nobody else's!

 

I’m not sure I agree with this 100% in regards to Newcastle. They may have all the money in the world, but they are restricted to FFP. They were lucky in the fact that for all the complaining about the previous owner, the club was run well financially and they were able to go and spend money initially and getting CL football has strengthened this. But they need to continue to get CL football to grow and like Chelsea currently, 1,2,3 seasons without CL football FFP will come knocking.

Im not convinced Howe can consistently keep Newcastle in the CL positions, time will tell. But that will allow other clubs to seize on those opportunities, as with the inconsistency with Spurs, Manure and Chelsea.

[Philosopher]

28 minutes ago, QldVilla said:

I’m not sure I agree with this 100% in regards to Newcastle. They may have all the money in the world, but they are restricted to FFP. They were lucky in the fact that for all the complaining about the previous owner, the club was run well financially and they were able to go and spend money initially and getting CL football has strengthened this. But they need to continue to get CL football to grow and like Chelsea currently, 1,2,3 seasons without CL football FFP will come knocking.

Im not convinced Howe can consistently keep Newcastle in the CL positions, time will tell. But that will allow other clubs to seize on those opportunities, as with the inconsistency with Spurs, Manure and Chelsea.

They will cheat like City, and their 400 Emirates sponsorship deal, when they couldn't even fill their ground. They have so much money,  own stakes in so many huge companies, they practically own the whole Saudi pro league. They have politicians in their pockets. They have many way to circumnavigate ffp!

[rodders0223]

This CV guy and FFP man

[CVByrne]

2 hours ago, Philosopher said:

History tells us selling your best players to fund a push up the table rarely works out. The only exception to this is when you can go out an buy an equally good player for the same money or less. But if there is such a player, with our standing we can't compete with the top clubs who will surely snap him up. That's the unfair situation ANY team trying to change the status quo has to overcome.

What we need to do is sell the players performing well, that are at their limit (in terms of capability) for inflated fees (more than they are worth). And keep the players that are genuine top class. And also keep the players performing well that still have room for growth.

Selling Doug (as he is emerging as a genuine top class player) is not going to progress us. On the flipside while I absolutely love McGinn at his age he hasn't really got much room for improvement. So for me, if we could get 50 million for him I'd take it. Selling Digne, when he is 30 and a high earner makes sense if a viable offer came. Selling Ramsey would be utter stupidness.

We need to sell on our terms. Nobody else's!

I think the key is selling a player when you already have the replacement in your team. Brighton did this when they sold Bissouma for example. 

In case of Luiz it's out of our hands mostly. If I were him I'd give Villa this year and next year to make the cut and qualify for Champions League before I'd extend my contract. 

For Villa we should be smart and move Dendoncker on and sign another Central Midfielder who will improve our CM options giving us flexibility in case we sell Luiz

[Follyfoot]

2 hours ago, Philosopher said:

There is another couple of aspects to this. 

The first is that the so called top clubs poach players from the group just below them in order to weaken them to prevent themselves from being usurped. They see us as a threat now so they aim to weaken us by taking our best players, and strengthen themselves in the process. They will come for Watkins, Ramsey, Diaby and Kamara too.

Man City did it the other way round by using unspeakable sums of money. But they were an exception. Ironically City poaching Barry and Milner sucked the heart of MON's team out. Then they did it to Arsenal!

The other aspect is that the only teams to break into that top 4-6 is Tottenham, City, and more recently Newcastle. Newcastle and City have huge sums of money so they don't / didn't fear others poaching their players as they can blow anyone out the water in regards to wages. And the players know that the clubs only trajectory is up.

Tottenham are the only club to break into what was then a top four, organically. They did it through fighting tooth and nail to keep their best players at the club and when that wasn't possible extorting (with unheard of valuations) the interested clubs, and selling to foreign teams if possible. They didn't want to strengthen Man U so they sold Kane to Bayern, they did the same with Bale to Madrid.

History tells us selling your best players to fund a push up the table rarely works out. The only exception to this is when you can go out an buy an equally good player for the same money or less. But if there is such a player, with our standing we can't compete with the top clubs who will surely snap him up. That's the unfair situation ANY team trying to change the status quo has to overcome.

What we need to do is sell the players performing well, that are at their limit (in terms of capability) for inflated fees (more than they are worth). And keep the players that are genuine top class. And also keep the players performing well that still have room for growth.

Selling Doug (as he is emerging as a genuine top class player) is not going to progress us. On the flipside while I absolutely love McGinn at his age he hasn't really got much room for improvement. So for me, if we could get 50 million for him I'd take it. Selling Digne, when he is 30 and a high earner makes sense if a viable offer came. Selling Ramsey would be utter stupidness.

We need to sell on our terms. Nobody else's!

 

A very philosophic view..

oh

[Rightdm00]

After the Grealish transfer these rumors no longer bother me in the slightest. If we sell it will be for a crazy valuation that we will use to push on. Unai has his entire scouting team working to find new players that will either fix our current holes in the squad or replace potential sells. 

If Tottenham can sell modric, Bale, and Walker while still pushing on to CL qualifications then I have absolute faith that Unai and his team will figure it out as well. 

[Lord Willard]

Why move to Arsenal to play for an inferior manager? 

[Philosopher]

38 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I think the key is selling a player when you already have the replacement in your team. Brighton did this when they sold Bissouma for example. 

In case of Luiz it's out of our hands mostly. If I were him I'd give Villa this year and next year to make the cut and qualify for Champions League before I'd extend my contract. 

For Villa we should be smart and move Dendoncker on and sign another Central Midfielder who will improve our CM options giving us flexibility in case we sell Luiz

You make sense in that IF we had a good replacement for the player then we can sell in the comfort of knowing we don't need to replace them. Them the money brought in can be spend strengthening other areas. However we currently don't have that with Doug. I like Tielemens, but he lacks the mobility Doug has and we'll miss that.

Plus selling without putting up a real fight to keep a player sets a bad president. As then next summer the replacement will be plucked, then we have to have a conveyer belt of readily available replacements for our best players.

Monchi is a notoriously tough negotiator and very shrewd. So I'm confident he'll manage such situations as well as possible.

But selling your best players isn't a blueprint for success. It's a blueprint for being satisfied with your position. 

[TheStagMan]

So who has said that we will be selling  Doug, and who has confirmed it will be without a fight?

It's all tabloid bollocks. If we do sell, it will be on our terms if Nas, Wes and Don Unai feel it is in our best interests.

[StefanAVFC]

new contract please

[MWARLEY2]

He is the main man here. And i think he thrives on that. The more responsibility the better. Will he take free kicks and penalties for Arsenal. Doubt it. Corners might be an issue as well. Will Rice be the one to go forward if he was there ? Arteta has history of saying one thing and doing another.

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, Philosopher said:

You make sense in that IF we had a good replacement for the player then we can sell in the comfort of knowing we don't need to replace them. Them the money brought in can be spend strengthening other areas. However we currently don't have that with Doug. I like Tielemens, but he lacks the mobility Doug has and we'll miss that.

Plus selling without putting up a real fight to keep a player sets a bad president. As then next summer the replacement will be plucked, then we have to have a conveyer belt of readily available replacements for our best players.

Monchi is a notoriously tough negotiator and very shrewd. So I'm confident he'll manage such situations as well as possible.

But selling your best players isn't a blueprint for success. It's a blueprint for being satisfied with your position. 

Nobody is saying let him go easily. To let him go in Summer would need to be £100m given the prices that have been paid for others. Plus selling to a direct rival (which is anyone in Big 7 that isn't Man City) would be undesirable.

I think summer 2025 if Luiz wants to move on and we haven't managed to Qualify for CL yet we would look to sell him in same way Spurs did with Kane. 

What I want us to have done by then is move Dendoncker on and have replaced him. Thus giving us another CM option that Emery trusts. 

[TomC]

While I won't be surprised if Man City or Arsenal throw silly money at him, I don't see him leaving until at least the summer if he leaves at all. I just don't think that we'll sell in January when we're fighting for a CL spot. And if we get a CL spot, we can take the money and increase his contract. It's clear he likes playing for Unai.

 

 

[Philosopher]

55 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Nobody is saying let him go easily. To let him go in Summer would need to be £100m given the prices that have been paid for others. Plus selling to a direct rival (which is anyone in Big 7 that isn't Man City) would be undesirable.

I think summer 2025 if Luiz wants to move on and we haven't managed to Qualify for CL yet we would look to sell him in same way Spurs did with Kane. 

What I want us to have done by then is move Dendoncker on and have replaced him. Thus giving us another CM option that Emery trusts. 

Come the summer he could be worth more. For me we should outright refuse to sell in January. Luiz should be able to accept this. In the summer if we have qualified for the champions league, 120 million if not more. If not and he is demanding a move in the summer then begrudgingly accept 100m.

[VillaParkAvenue]

The Luiz chatter online is becoming unbearable and it’s only November. Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Fabrizio blah blah. **** off

[CVByrne]

32 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

Come the summer he could be worth more. For me we should outright refuse to sell in January. Luiz should be able to accept this. In the summer if we have qualified for the champions league, 120 million if not more. If not and he is demanding a move in the summer then begrudgingly accept 100m.

Nobody at all anywhere thinks there's any even remote chance he'll be sold in January. Arsenal or whoever wouldn't even waste their time bidding even if they wanted him and we're willing to pay.

The discussion is about summer this year and next year as he's only got 2 years and then 1 year left. If he doesn't sign a new contract he has to be sold at some point 

[DJBOB]

At a certain point, if they're coming in for 100M - it makes little sense not to sell.

The key is using those funds to identify and acquire a replacement, which we have seen with us and other clubs varying examples of success. Our 100M for Jack wasn't really effective. Brighton have purchased a few players with the Caicedo and MacAllister money, but they clearly still miss both of them. West Ham made some smart buys with Alvarez and Kudus but Moyes is reluctant to use all of them.

So for me, 100M+ and that is life, but we would have to get the replacements correct.

[nick76]

4 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

At a certain point, if they're coming in for 100M - it makes little sense not to sell.

The key is using those funds to identify and acquire a replacement, which we have seen with us and other clubs varying examples of success. Our 100M for Jack wasn't really effective. Brighton have purchased a few players with the Caicedo and MacAllister money, but they clearly still miss both of them. West Ham made some smart buys with Alvarez and Kudus but Moyes is reluctant to use all of them.

So for me, 100M+ and that is life, but we would have to get the replacements correct.

£100m is what you can earn in the Champions League.  Dougie can be pivotal in us getting regular Champions League just like Martinez.  Selling either is a net loss imo, we’ll earn more with them than selling them.  It’s the difference between being a West Ham or Brighton type team or whether we want to be considered a serious season on season Top 4 challenger.

[avfc1982am]

I think the problem is too many are conditioned into believing players will be attracted by the leap to a bigger club. Historically... or over the last few decades that has been somewhat true. The difference with then and now is it's not a really a leap anymore with our current position, owners, status and more importantly manager. I think we are dealing with a completely different club mindset now to even 6 months ago. Not a chance Unai or Monchi let DL leave when he's integral to our current trajectory. I don't think Dougie will want to go anyway because he will undoubtedly see the bigger picture himself and realise he's a huge part of it. 

I think he sees and loves the club in the same way Martinez does, he brought in to the journey when he arrived and understands his last stop for Villa has a long way to go before he reaches his destination with us. He definitely won't be leaving in January and my guess is the club will start discussing terms for a new deal before next summer which will be more reflective of his standing within the team. 

There is a big change happening in the PL with teams like ourselves, Newcastle and to an extent Brighton changing the status quo. The top 6 isn't the top 6 anymore, but the top 8-9 and being traditionally in that pack of clubs we've as good a chance as anyone of playing CL in the next couple of years and potentially challenging for the title or trophies. Players will see this and then add the lure of Unai etc, players like Dougie will want to stay and others will want to come and join the journey.