Dean Smith

[Rob182]

46 minutes ago, TRO said:

Your view, cannot be dismissed, it has elements of mitigation that are fair, but my reluctance to buy in to it as much as you ,is this:

If we started badly and got gradually better, i would be more inclined to accept your view as legitimate....but the fact is we have got incrementally worse almost game by game.

The conspiracies against us, you mention are fair.....you could almost have an inquest surrounding our treatment of VAR which is laughable.

but in my opinion, we are primarily the architect of our own demise.

 I am a fan who looks at games as opposed to stats and glean my opinions from there, however, i do not dismiss stats as irrelevant and i recognise they are more factual, than my opinions.

Those stats are alarming, in anyones language.

it is inevitable, some fans will back Dean in a view to see a change in results and performances and quote stability.......some will have seen enough and favour a change in leadership.....who's right, i wish i knew.

I am not sure what we do with 10 games left, but i will say this, if we continue on this path of being ripped apart and results accordingly......the task of getting back up will be in stark contrast to just missing out.

We are being mullered in the league and that has deep rooted consequences and a magnitude that is far reaching.

It has to stop, NOW.

I do agree with you TRO (we may have slipped into a parallel universe!? :lol:) our gradual decline is alarming, but when I think back through the season, I feel like there have been some circumstances (or some not willing to listen may call them.. excuses?) throughout the season.

For the first few months we genuinely looked good. McGinn, Grealish, Heaton and the central defence looked like they would all flourish in this league. Despite that, we had uncharacteristic individual errors that let us down and lead to lost points (Grealish mistake vs Spurs gave them their equaliser, which opened us up for their winner. Heaton mistake vs Bournemouth. Etc).

Then, as the games went on, the wingers started to blow hot and cold, so we switched Jack out wide, and this seemed to coincide with McGinn falling out of form (with rumours of a potential injury), and all of our driving forces from central-midfield seemed to dissipate. What's worse than an inexperienced team thrown together? An inexperienced team thrown together with nothing in midfield!

A few more months of 'okay' performances passed, again, with ref/VAR errors (Arsenal, Palace etc) before we get the sucker punch of losing Wesley, McGinn and Heaton in quick succession.

Then starts the rebuild of the rebuild. On top of that, the constant narrow losses seemed to take it's toll on the players, who seem to lose faith in themselves.

There are clear deficiencies in Smith's coaching and management, but I also feel that some of our decline stems from having an inexperienced, fragile and frankly limited squad, bar the handful of our best players - who have also made mistakes and not done a great deal to instill too much confidence in the rest of the squad. Other than turning to Jack, the squad is spread so thinly it's a surprise we're not on 17 points like Fulham were last season. (I think).

[LondonVillian]

Some people got a serious chip on their shoulders try to move on guys and stop derailing the thread.

Feel free to DM me I'm happy to give you a quote to explain basic maths to you. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

21 minutes ago, WakefieldVillan said:

f there is a call to make I am glad I don't have to make it and if he was sacked I would still think he would go down as a successful Villa manager and would appreciate what he has done for the club.

If he was sacked now then yes. My only concern is it seems to get personal for many fans. If we get relegated and the club stick with Smith will the fans give him a chance to get us back up?

[Stevo985]

14 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Wouldn’t player sales balance the books to keep us compliant with FFP? I understand this year we will break even but last year there was massive loses? 

17/18 FFP losses were £21m

18/19 they were £10m

So this season we have £8m to play with, given we're only allowed to lose £39m over a 3 year period.

 

Assuming we comply with that, which you'd like to think we would given our owners and a year of Premier League money, for 20/21 we'd be allowed to make a maximum FFP loss of £21m (10 + 8 + 21 = 39). That's given the assumption we lose exactly £8m this season to comply exactly with FFP. 

So anything we lose above that £21m, as a minimum, would have to be covered by player sales.

Obviously there are loads of other places that revenue could come from too, including some very creative ways which our owners have already demonstrated. So how much of player sales we'd need to balance the books isn't easy to put a figure on.

 

Needless to say, our owners' deep pockets, our ability (for want of a better word) to lose £21m, a year of premier league money, and £100m+ from player sales means I'm fairly certain we'd be able to spend a fair bit, relatively speaking, in the championship

Edited March 11, 2020 by Stevo985

[TRO]

53 minutes ago, villanmac said:

Yes Smith hasn’t covered himself in glory but the players are crap, I’m 100% convinced of it having watched them play like Bambi on ice all season. The midfielders are so out of their depth it’s unreal. I don’t think anyone could turn it around. They make me long for the days of a Mark Kinsella, Erik Bakke and Oyvind Leonardson midfield 3. 

 

So the next question is......how much input did he have in their recruitment ?....if the answer is none...it makes it harder to blame him.

[Mjvilla]

31 minutes ago, TRO said:

I accept the special relationship...but necessity is the mother of invention.

Lets not forget, Wolves were languishing in Albions shadow for yonks.

It was season after season Wolves did not look like getting out of the championship, much like the Blues.....yes thats how bad it was.

They changed and tackled mediocrity head on.....they are where they are, because they grasped the nettle and done something about it......however they have done it....its working.

Many teams inc Sheff Utd have turned their fortunes around, by doing things right and a fair share of lady luck...success comes from doing things right and making more good decisions than bad ones.

Again TRO, I'm not sure I grasp your point here. They are where they are because they got lucky. They got bought out by fosun who were quite happy to be used as a super agents bitch. 

We have made many bad decisions, and use sheff utd and many other clubs to criticise us. But not wolves, they got lucky and I'm sure most wolves fans would tell you the same. 

[TRO]

12 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

I do agree with you TRO (we may have slipped into a parallel universe!? :lol:) our gradual decline is alarming, but when I think back through the season, I feel like there have been some circumstances (or some not willing to listen may call them.. excuses?) throughout the season.

For the first few months we genuinely looked good. McGinn, Grealish, Heaton and the central defence looked like they would all flourish in this league. Despite that, we had uncharacteristic individual errors that let us down and lead to lost points (Grealish mistake vs Spurs gave them their equaliser, which opened us up for their winner. Heaton mistake vs Bournemouth. Etc).

Then, as the games went on, the wingers started to blow hot and cold, so we switched Jack out wide, and this seemed to coincide with McGinn falling out of form (with rumours of a potential injury), and all of our driving forces from central-midfield seemed to dissipate. What's worse than an inexperienced team thrown together? An inexperienced team thrown together with nothing in midfield!

A few more months of 'okay' performances passed, again, with ref/VAR errors (Arsenal, Palace etc) before we get the sucker punch of losing Wesley, McGinn and Heaton in quick succession.

Then starts the rebuild of the rebuild. On top of that, the constant narrow losses seemed to take it's toll on the players, who seem to lose faith in themselves.

There are clear deficiencies in Smith's coaching and management, but I also feel that some of our decline stems from having an inexperienced, fragile and frankly limited squad, bar the handful of our best players - who have also made mistakes and not done a great deal to instill too much confidence in the rest of the squad. Other than turning to Jack, the squad is spread so thinly it's a surprise we're not on 17 points like Fulham were last season. (I think).

Once again hard to argue with, not that i want to.lol.

The teams inability to get after the opponent, like Sheff Utd do....is my biggest regret.

how much Dean is responsible for that,  i am unsure.

but if it is left unaddressed, which it has so far......i fear the worst.

[Vive_La_Villa]

9 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

17/18 FFP losses were £21m

18/19 they were £10m

So this season we have £8m to play with, given we're only allowed to lose £39m over a 3 year period.

 

Assuming we comply with that, which you'd like to think we would given our owners and a year of Premier League money, for 20/21 we'd be allowed to make a maximum FFP loss of £21m (10 + 8 + 21 = 39). That's given the assumption we lose exactly £8m this season to comply exactly with FFP. 

So anything we lose above that £21m, as a minimum, would have to be covered by player sales.

Obviously there are loads of other places that revenue could come from too, including some very creative ways which our owners have already demonstrated. So how much of player sales we'd need to balance the books isn't easy to put a figure on.

 

Needless to say, our owners' deep pockets, our ability (for want of a better word) to lose £21m, a year of premier league money, and £100m+ from player sales means I'm fairly certain we'd be able to spend a fair bit, relatively speaking, in the championship

I thought we made a loss of 68.9 million for 18/19 year? As I said it really does go over my head. Probably one for the FFP thread. 

[lapal_fan]

I think it's important to learn - as you get older especially - that it's ok to admit you're wrong. 

[TRO]

2 hours ago, Mjvilla said:

Again TRO, I'm not sure I grasp your point here. They are where they are because they got lucky. They got bought out by fosun who were quite happy to be used as a super agents bitch. 

We have made many bad decisions, and use sheff utd and many other clubs to criticise us. But not wolves, they got lucky and I'm sure most wolves fans would tell you the same. 

Every club needs the customary luck......we got lucky to find NSWE.

but to claim Wolves fortunes are all down to luck, is an insult to Nuno.

Edited March 11, 2020 by TRO

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I thought we made a loss of 68.9 million for 18/19 year? As I said it really does go over my head. Probably one for the FFP thread. 

Operating Loss IIRC

FFP excludes things like academy expenses, "promotion costs" (eg the payment to Randy Lerner), Infrastructure etc. 

So after those exclusions, our FFP loss was only about £10m

Edited March 11, 2020 by Stevo985

[Johnnyp]

This board's fascination with Terry is worrying and downright weird. Wanted him on the ticket with Henry, with Faria. Now if Smith gets the bullet they want him to take over to keep a ship that's he played a part in been responsible for sinking, afloat. I do understand a decision needs to be made but giving it to a lad he looks to me like he's part of the problem.

[Keyblade]

5 hours ago, DCJonah said:

What's the point in staying up for just the same result the following year?

Think back to that period of mcleish and lambert. Yes we barely survived each year but who the **** wants to go back to that?

This. It's heartbreaking. If we sack Smith and bring in a firefighter like Allardyce, I think I'm done with football for a while. All my excitement over the last year or so for the future of our club would be eroded. What did everyone think, we'd finish 5th in the Championship and it would be smooth sailing next year in the PL?

[Rob182]

1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

It's the way we are losing chap. No graft here, just poor football and bending over for any team, look disjointed, no tactical ability. If we played like Norwich most of us would be greatful of Smith. But if that's what we get when everyone in the team is on board, I don't wanna see what we play like when he finally loses the dressing room.

Except for that match against the champions Man City... just before our last game... where we grafted, didn't look poor, didn't look disjointed, seemed to set up well tactically and lost 2-1, pushing Man City right until the end, after one of their goals was from a corner that shouldn't have been. But... we do all of the bolded against any team apparently.

Let me guess, it's no good if it's not in the league/ we've looked worse more than we have good/ we played their C-Team/ since then we looked bad against Leicester/ etc etc etc.

[Johnnyp]

4 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

This. It's heartbreaking. If we sack Smith and bring in a firefighter like Allardyce, I think I'm done with football for a while. All my excitement over the last year or so for the future of our club would be eroded. What did everyone think, we'd finish 5th in the Championship and it would be smooth sailing next year in the PL?

Certainly has been for Sheffield United. The player turnover doesn't wash with me. Suso is useless. Been shown to be highly incompetent and massively out of his depth at PL level. 

[Keyblade]

Also if Big Sam comes in, even if he keeps us up, we can kiss Jack goodbye. He's definitely not staying to play under him. So depressing.

[Johnnyp]

 

Just now, Keyblade said:

Also if Big Sam comes in, even if he keeps us up, we can kiss Jack goodbye. He's definitely not staying to play under him. So depressing.

Jack's going anyway. Think we should all make peace with that now.

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, Johnnyp said:

 

Jack's going anyway. Think we should all make peace with that now.

Oooohhh careful. You'll have lots of people telling you you're not a real villa fan with talk like this!

[Keyblade]

1 minute ago, Johnnyp said:

Certainly has been for Sheffield United. The player turnover doesn't wash with me. Suso is useless. Been shown to be highly incompetent and massively out of his depth at PL level. 

Doesn't Suso bringing in a lot of bad players in your opinion have to do with player turnover?

Regardless, you bring up Sheffield United are a very good example in favour of less player turnover. This is largely the same team that hot promoted from League One. It makes acclimatising to a league so much easier when you're settled and familiar with each other and the coaching.

[Keyblade]

3 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

 

Jack's going anyway. Think we should all make peace with that now.

In the scenario I mentioned he's 100% going.

If we stay up with Smith or make a more ambitious managerial appointment, there's a chance depending on how we can sell our vision and the players we sign that summer.