mjmooney Posted June 9, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 9, 2017 So, in the replay, do away goals count double, or do we go straight to penalties? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 9, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, hippo said: We thought that 2010 because the tories didn't win outright they wouldn't pursue such a hard right agenda - but they did - and got the lib dems to carry the can for it. The DUP being Northern Irish may change that. They have different priorities because of the situation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 It seems May learnt nothing from her predecessor. Cameron thought the electorate were too sensible to vote for Brexit and was badly wrong. May thought the electorate were too sensible to vote for Corbyn and was badly wrong again. Blame the Villa fan Nick Timothy, who is her chief adviser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Just now, Chindie said: The DUP being Northern Irish may change that. They have different priorities because of the situation there. Extract from DUP Manifesto Other clues to what the DUP might demand can be gleaned from their manifesto, which includes retaining the "triple lock" on pensions, cutting VAT for tourism businesses, abolishing Air Passenger Duty, and reviewing the price of ferries between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Very do able for the tories. DUP Manifesto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 North East Fife was won by SNP by 2 votes over Lib Dem after 4 recounts. Woooow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisVillan Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: Forget if your labour or conservative... Nah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 9, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Like they are going to give the tiniest little toss about our ability to get things through Parliament. They will want to do a deal (not to the extent the Tories and Brexiteers think where that will bend over backwards or we walk. But no deal is bad for everyone) and there being a weaker hand here may encourage a better negotiation. They won't care who is in charge (hence Theresa's claims about this being needed to improve her hand being nonsense) but our being able to say a deal could die in Parliament because of the makeup of it now might lead to a better result. It basically encourages a more nuanced negotiation IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_c Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Has their ever been a worse decision in uk politics than May calling this election? Cameron calling the EU referendum? At least May's decision is only damaging to her. Not the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, LondonLax said: May called an election when she didn't need to in attempt to increase her majority and ended up losing her majority entirely. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh. Indeed. (Out of likes!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 So the exit poll was very accurate. What a mess it leaves the UK in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 9, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, hippo said: Extract from DUP Manifesto Other clues to what the DUP might demand can be gleaned from their manifesto, which includes retaining the "triple lock" on pensions, cutting VAT for tourism businesses, abolishing Air Passenger Duty, and reviewing the price of ferries between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Very do able for the tories. DUP Manifesto Brexit is the biggie. The DUP supported it, but a hard one is a no go for them, as it makes the Northern Ireland problem infinitely worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Could Be Rotterdam Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 (edited) So our options now are for her to remain as leader and negotiate brexit on the back of this vote which is a disaster waiting to happen. The other EU leaders must be rolling around laughing at her! Or she goes, and they appoint a new leader meaning we go into the negotiations without an elected PM. Yet again the arguments will come that they wont have a mandate and on the back of such a loss of support from the country the party is in an awful position. Or she resigns, the new PM does the right thing (ignoring Brexit) and calls another election at the end of the year. At which point we will be almost a year into article 50. She must feel like such a mug. This is all her fault. She called a needless election, thought the electorate were either stupid enough or loyal enough that they wouldnt react to her negative and insulting campaign. She even went after the safe vote in the elderly. Meanwhile Corbyn has played a blinder. The success in engaging the young vote seems to have been nothing short of a masterclass and Im delighted for him. I feel like villa were losing 5-0 at half time and its 5-4 at full time. I know we didn't win, but we gave it a good shot, it was great to watch and somehow it feels like we're leaving the ground having won the game. And it was the managers tactics and substitutions that made the difference! Edited June 9, 2017 by This Could Be Rotterdam 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Hmm dont agree with the EU one the people wanted. I might not be happy with result but at least Cameron kept his promise and he delivered. Clegg yes that was on par when you look at it now but at the time Lib Dems have never been in power so you can understand to an extent why. I think Mays is worse, she was in complete control now she has humiliated herself. Clegg had no power at the time, May did thats the difference. How about Neville Chamberlain waving that letter about saying "My good friends, this is the second time there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Now I recommend you go home, and sleep quietly in your beds."? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 there are some weird results out there and so many close results! Can't imagine it would be the same turnout though if we have to go through all this again within a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, villa89 said: So the exit poll was very accurate. What a mess it leaves the UK in. I guess applause also for YouGov. I think the only ones to predict the hung parliament as the end result when everyone else was still going for a pretty big Tory majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Could Be Rotterdam Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jon_c said: Cameron calling the EU referendum? At least May's decision is only damaging to her. Not the whole country. Mays decision is damaging to the whole country though. She was in a position of strength but wanted to get her claws on more. We are now in a complete unknown with the most important negotiations in decades to commence shortly. She has left the country in a state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Just now, ml1dch said: I guess applause also for YouGov. I think the only ones to predict the hung parliament as the end result when everyone else was still going for a pretty big Tory majority. Yep. I'll requote the piece from Electoral Calculus: Quote In an eye-catching Times story on 31 May, YouGov revealed a new model which predicts the Conservatives will only get 310 seats, leaving them short of a majority. Not only is this prediction notably different from the predictions from Electoral Calculus and others, but the methodology used is very different from normal polls. Traditional polls simply aim to calculate the fraction of the overall population which supports each of the major parties. And they do this with the standard market research techniques of asking questions and adding up how many people gave each answer. YouGov have tried something much more ambitious and modern. Using what they describe as multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis (which is reminiscent of the machine learning techniques of the big tech companies), they are trying to model how each individual voter in the country thinks. They need a big poll to do this (with a sample size of 50,000) plus regression against census demographics and British Election Study data. This approach looks similar to that used by Electoral Calculus to calculate EU Referendum voting at the locality and ward level, as well as the other political measures as described in our Thirty Extreme Places in Britain article. So Electoral Calculus salutes YouGov for their modern approach of combining polls and models to get richer and more insightful predictions. We will know next week whether their approach has got it exactly right this time. If it's right, then they will be justly celebrated. But even if it isn't, it is still the right thing to do and the method can be refined in future years to be more accurate. One day, maybe all polling will be like this. Nonetheless, and for the record, the Electoral Calculus prediction is still that the Conservatives will get a sizeable majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 (edited) I see she's saying she won't resign, but I still think she's going to have no choice. Together with the DUP, they may have a majority of 4 or 5. So if 3 government MPs rebel, or are indisposed through ill health or absence, then no legislation can be passed. It's not difficult for the Tories and the DUP to reach an agreement, it's achieving anything afterwards that will be almost impossible. EDIT: . . . so we're going to have to have another election, is what I'm saying. Edited June 9, 2017 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: EDIT: . . . so we're going to have to have another election, is what I'm saying. Looking at some of the Labour swings in safe Tory seats, and more time for Corbyn's message to sink in, it could be very good for Labour... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, jon_c said: Cameron calling the EU referendum? At least May's decision is only damaging to her. Not the whole country. No cant accept that, i think you should blame the 51.9% who voted for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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