Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

25 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I realise this is maybe my fault, but I'm not really saying our diplomacy was ineffective because we did it poorly, but because we largely do not matter. Russia met Cabinet members, not the PM (contrast to France and Germany). In truth, we have been little involved since 2014; the countries primarily involved in the Minsk process (other than the protagonists, obviously) were the US, France and Germany. 

I agree with you; weak sanctions have been a feature of all 'western' responses so far, including America. This is fundamentally a weakness of sanctions as a tool, rather then the will or steel of western governments. Sanctions are generally best at punishing weak, small economies like North Korea or Iran, not giant natural resource behemoths like Russia. In addition, because there are so few military options to deal with Russia, we have used sanctions repeatedly in the past, including for stuff that used to be considered too trivial for sanctions like the hacks a couple of years ago (can't remember what they were called, SolarBears or something?). Russia has learned to live with sanctions; they are an annoyance but not an impediment to action. We are also limited by economic reality, as @LondonLax pointed out yesterday; the public are likely to be even less fussed about Ukrainian sovereignty when oil is $150 a barrel and inflation is running over 10%. This also has an effect on political reality as well; Germans don't want the gas to go off, Macron wants to win an election in a few weeks. Sanctions won't help with either. 

My honest belief is that sometimes there are situations where there are no good options, and this is one of them. I doubt making the Tory party give money back to Lubov Chernukhin would make any difference at all (it might arguably be good for other reasons to do with probity in politics, but Vlad isn't changing course because of it). It's hard to accept, especially for British people I think, that sometimes things happen and you just can't do much about them, but again we're not the 'main character' here. 

I was wondering if he was taking this action now because he knows the World is in the endgame of reliance on fossil fuels. 

As has been said we're reluctant to go for REALLY hard sanctions like stopping buying their oil and gas because it would cause so much hardship in the general population. 

In 10 - 15 years when we're all driving electric cars and our homes are warmed by heat pumps or whatever who will need Russia anymore? 

He's probably got a diminishing window to keep blackmailing the world so is making the land grab now whilst he can still do it relatively pain free. 

[sidcow]

34 minutes ago, Dante_Lockhart said:

I'll be wearing a mask so I'll be safe from Nuke fallout.

Not this again. Wearing a mask protects others from fallout... Not you. 

[The Fun Factory]

I suspect they will seize power fairly quickly- but a long guerrilla/civil war. The Ukrainian government will probably go in exile.

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I was wondering if he was taking this action now because he knows the World is in the endgame of reliance on fossil fuels. 

As has been said we're reluctant to go for REALLY hard sanctions like stopping buying their oil and gas because it would cause so much hardship in the general population. 

In 10 - 15 years when we're all driving electric cars and our homes are warmed by heat pumps or whatever who will need Russia anymore? 

He's probably got a diminishing window to keep blackmailing the world so is making the land grab now whilst he can still do it relatively pain free. 

It's an interesting thought, but I would guess not: we will need fossil fuels for a few decades yet, and Russia is well-placed resources-wise with regards to the kind of metals and so on that will be needed in the energy transition in any case. 

I think it's best to take him (sort of) at his word; he says it's about NATO, and that seems very likely (it certainly fits with the 2008 war). 

[Follyfoot]

25 minutes ago, danceoftheshamen said:

So lets just get the important stuff into focus amongst all this....

Apparently Abramovic has been barred from UK. I wonder if they'll freeze his assets which could impact Chelsea,

I see China is backing Putin too, does that mean Wolves owners may be impacted? 

 

[sidcow]

I'm just waiting for the Partygate report to be issued in full in the next hour or two. 

[desensitized43]

Got to say, with all the 1st hand accounts from Sky and BBC reporters of loud bangs and explosions in their vicinity, I think they're being quite irresponsible with their people. They're in the middle of a war zone right now and it's hard to argue they aren't in danger.

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I'm just waiting for the Partygate report to be issued in full in the next hour or two. 

The Met report and Sue Gray report in full 

[HanoiVillan]

29 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Seems bad:

This airfield is literally next to Kyiv, on the western side of the Dniepr river:

 

Sorry to quote myself, but:

We may fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv very shortly. 

[tonyh29]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

think it's best to take him (sort of) at his word; he says it's about NATO, and that seems very likely (it certainly fits with the 2008 war). 

NATO  cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders , hence Georgia , Transnistria (Moldova) and previously Donetsk and Luhansk

it would suggest it possible is about NATO as you say 

I think i posted a few months back in this thread he'd most likely stop at the Dnieper  and then have that as his natural border from the Crimea to Belarus ... I wonder if the attacks today re-affirm this , or whether he's decided to now take the whole country ? 

[magnkarl]

34 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Seems bad:

This airfield is literally next to Kyiv, on the western side of the Dniepr river:

 

These sort of low flying gunships are easy prey if the US delivered handheld systems are actually in the right hands. Hope someone takes them down.

Edited February 24, 2022 by magnkarl

[The Fun Factory]

India have given a very wishy-washy response. The main reasoning being that Russia supplies most of their military hardware and they are concerned at present with their Chinese boundary. It is just going to be the west standing up to bully boy Putin.

[Awol]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

 

I think i posted a few months back in this thread he'd most likely stop at the Dnieper  and then have that as his natural border from the Crimea to Belarus ... I wonder if the attacks today re-affirm this , or whether he's decided to now take the whole country ? 

The forces coming out of Crimea have seized crossings and are over the Dnieper.

Answers the question whether he only intended to take the east of Ukraine.

Also rumours that Belarusian army is invading with the Russians from the north. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Awol

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

NATO  cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders , hence Georgia , Transnistria (Moldova) and previously Donetsk and Luhansk

it would suggest it possible is about NATO as you say 

Yeah, that's my view. 

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

I think i posted a few months back in this thread he'd most likely stop at the Dnieper  and then have that as his natural border from the Crimea to Belarus ... I wonder if the attacks today re-affirm this , or whether he's decided to now take the whole country ? 

I think we're all desperately waiting to find that out! I thought that was most likely as well as a 'worst case scenario', but taking an airfield 15 minutes to the Kyiv ring road to the west of the river suggests there will be action on the western bank, and frankly does make it seem like taking the government is now on the cards. Time will tell I guess 

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

These sort of low flying gunships are easy pray if the US delivered handheld systems are actually in the right hands. Hope someone takes them down.

Well, they got one for sure:

Seemingly there were reports they'd taken down 3, but there were 30 flying towards the airfield and in any case the interior ministry has admitted the airfield has been taken. 

Ukrainian air defences don't seem to have been up to much, really, even if they've scored a few hits. 

[Delphinho123]

Christ, just what is Putin's goal here? 

[Awol]

3 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Christ, just what is Putin's goal here? 

Conquering Ukraine?

[magnkarl]

11 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Sorry to quote myself, but:

We may fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv very shortly. 

In the larger scheme of things, is this really such a big deal? Can't Ukraine just surround them and keep them pinned in, continue to provide resistance where Russia is weak and shoot down as much of their low flying combat gunships as possible? Russia will need a LARGE force to keep Ukraine occupied.

[The Fun Factory]

No. It is clear he wants to take the whole country and install a pro Russian government. 

[Chindie]

3 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Christ, just what is Putin's goal here? 

Take Ukraine. Discourage further Western expansion/Western leanings in the places Russia used to rule. Re-establish the former Russian territories as Russian.