bickster Posted October 11, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, LondonLax said: I get the impression Lukashenko didn't want to or wasn't able to (take your pick) get involved, otherwise he would have contributed long before now. It sounds like he's had the hard word from Putin though, he's only kept in power through Putin's patronage after all. Russian leadership sees Belarus as just another region of Russia and if mainland Russian regions are contributing (even having their citizens drafted) whilst Belarus are getting a free pass to watch from the sidelines then that's going to have caused some frustrations back in Mother Russia. Oh I think he's always wanted to because nothing would please him and his puppet master more. The narrative was that his generals told him in no uncertain terms that they were not going to get involved. He's also only kept in power because his army protect him. That can and probably will change. There is already an active resistance with partisans blowing shit up all over Belarus, including vital railway lines. There are three battalions of Belarus volunteers fighting for Ukraine right now and they have already stated that they will liberate Belarus when the time is right. (For context, those 3 battalions are probably half the size of the entire Belarus Army that is front line trained 6K vs 3k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 11, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 11, 2022 Musk denies it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PieFacE Posted October 11, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2022 Musk is a complete rocket polisher 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 49 minutes ago, PieFacE said: Musk is a complete rocket polisher He really is detail oriented. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 5 hours ago, Delphinho123 said: Looks like something is happening in Belarus. Polish embassy telling all their citizens to leave. It's being reported Putin will have another crack at Kyiv via Belarus. Can somebody like @KentVillanor @magnkarl tell me why this is going to fail? IF it is going to fail? In my humble opinion any order from Luka will be countermanded and lead to infighting in the Belarusian army. There are currently around 2000 more armed policemen in Ukraine than Luka has front line troops. Bearing in mind that many of said troops were ready to throw Luka under the bus last year were it not for Vlads green men it’s very doubtful that they’d be willing to kill people in a country that is probably their closest cultural neighbour. Were they ever to go across the border it’d be a complete rout. Belarus has worse and older equipment than Russia that has largely been in storage since 1991. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Mr_Dogg said: He really is detail oriented. Took me hours to get that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 3 hours ago, PieFacE said: Musk is a complete rocket polisher He’s suggested that Taiwan becomes a special administrative zone of China now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 10 hours ago, Delphinho123 said: Looks like something is happening in Belarus. Polish embassy telling all their citizens to leave. It's being reported Putin will have another crack at Kyiv via Belarus. Can somebody like @KentVillanor @magnkarl tell me why this is going to fail? IF it is going to fail? I don’t know much about military tactics, but struggling to understand how they can improve on the attack which failed at the start of the war, given all the extra weaponry Ukraine now has, the heightened preparedness and the depleted Russian military. Putin wasted a load of elite troops trying to take Kyiv. How does he improve on that with a few thousand unmotivated Belarusians and some Russian conscripts? Some people have suggested it’s a “fixing” manoeuvre to stop Ukraine from sending troops from the north to the fronts in the east and south, but that requires numbers on the Russian side who could otherwise be fighting in the east and south, so surely that’s a zero-sum game? Another suggestion is that these troops are so shit and need training anyway, so might as well train them (genuinely) in Belarus and bang the drum a bit to create a distraction. That one makes some sense maybe?? Another suggestion is Lukashenko seriously fearing a coup and Putin can’t afford for it to fall, so this is a genuinely important defensive priority for Russia. And Lukashenko claiming that Poland are gearing up to invade Belarus. And then there are always the remaining explanations which have been pretty reliable throughout: Putin is lying/bluffing, or Putin is micromanaging and doing stupid things. I haven’t seen anyone respectable analyse it in depth yet - or even confirm what the Russians are doing. Hopefully someone will do a Twitter thread! (Also I probably made some mistakes here, I’m just picking this stuff up from reading & podcasts.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted October 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 12, 2022 8 hours ago, Mr_Dogg said: He really is detail oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) If Belarus was really going to attack Ukraine US intelligence would know and Joe Biden would tell us, he did last time. So I think we will see it coming if it does. Edited October 12, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) Not sure how credible Tulsi Gabbard is but she has been involved in American politics and also has been an Army Reserve officer so you’d imagine has a pretty good handle on the crisis and a pretty valid insight and opinion. She recently quit the democratic party and called a load of them out for being elitist warmongers. Anyway found this pretty chilling what she had to say here Edited October 12, 2022 by BleedClaretAndBlue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Not sure how credible Tulsi Gabbard is but she has been involved in American politics and also has been an Army Reserve officer so you’d imagine has a pretty good handle on the crisis and a pretty valid insight and opinion. She recently quit the democratic party and called a load of them out for being elitist warmongers. Anyway found this pretty chilling what she had to say here Yeah she is well known in the USA as a Putin paid propagandist. She has zero credibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted October 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Not sure how credible Tulsi Gabbard is but she has been involved in American politics and also has been an Army Reserve officer so you’d imagine has a pretty good handle on the crisis and a pretty valid insight and opinion. She recently quit the democratic party and called a load of them out for being elitist warmongers. Anyway found this pretty chilling what she had to say here I haven't watched this and won't watch anything with Rogan because A: he's a stupid ignormaus B: he's a moron. But Tulsi is bought and paid for by the Russians and has been for years. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted October 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 12, 2022 Beat me to it @ciggiesnbeer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted October 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) 11 hours ago, bickster said: Musk denies it They say that Tony Stark/Iron Man is based on Musk. Perhaps he's aiming to become the worlds ultimate weapon? Edited October 12, 2022 by TheAuthority 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 7 hours ago, Genie said: He’s suggested that Taiwan becomes a special administrative zone of China now too. His biggest factory is in China so he’ll be feeling the need to toe the line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) In a lighter moment I thought this zinger was pretty good from Andy Zaltzman paraphrasing: "The world is still waiting for someone in Russia to do the decent thing and do to Putin what they did to his great uncle Ras" Edited October 12, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Not sure how credible Tulsi Gabbard is but she has been involved in American politics and also has been an Army Reserve officer so you’d imagine has a pretty good handle on the crisis and a pretty valid insight and opinion. She recently quit the democratic party and called a load of them out for being elitist warmongers. Anyway found this pretty chilling what she had to say here Both people in this video are worth less than that turd you can't get off your shoe after accidentally walking through a dog park. Tulsi Gabbard is on the take, more so than George Galloway. Even Republicans are worried about her having the seat she has. That says a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Interestingly yesterday Ukraine was able to shoot down 90% of Russian missiles. If Russia doesn't do as they did on oct 10th they won't get through the now very capable air defense. Could the few rockets sent yesterday show that the 10th was their last 'large' attack? A friend of my son manages a forum provider (for universities), and he's had a massive uptick in troll farm accounts being created to post fear mongering posts about nuclear war across the board. They're no longer spreading propaganda, but rather trying to instill fear in the West. It's an interesting climb down, possibly bracing for a defeat? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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