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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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5 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Err.....the only reason we are still 7 points behind is the fact we have dropped 12 points in a horrible last 5 games!

All the other teams are dropping points too!

Oh right thanks for that. 

So are we 7 points off? And were we 7 points off 4 months ago?

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1 minute ago, Nigel said:

Yes...after a win less month it hasnt increased! 

Far rather 7 points behind Cardiff or Bristol than 7 behind derby - they are a much tougher prospect 

Edited by Eastie
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1 minute ago, Eastie said:

Far rather 7 points behind Cardiff or Bristol than 7 behind derby - they are a much tougher prospect 

Derby are not Wolves, they are more than capable of dropping points. Wouldnt say there is a lot between Derby and Cardiff TBH.

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1 minute ago, Nigel said:

...and yet we are still the same points behind second as we were. 

Its just lucky that 4 or 5 clubs didnt match them.

I’ve always felt Cardiff , sheff utd and Bristol city wouldn’t stay the distance - derby though have money and a good squad and will be hard to catch from here - top 6 is certainly very much achievable but I think villa should be doing better than just making the play offs with this squad 

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4 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Derby are not Wolves, they are more than capable of dropping points. Wouldnt say there is a lot between Derby and Cardiff TBH.

They have taken 35 points from their last 15 games which is comparable with wolves and much more than Cardiff .

Derby will take some catching from 7 points behind . 

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2 minutes ago, Eastie said:

I’ve always felt Cardiff , sheff utd and Bristol city wouldn’t stay the distance - derby though have money and a good squad and will be hard to catch from here - top 6 is certainly very much achievable but I think villa should be doing better than just making the play offs with this squad 

Im not sure how good Derbys squad is TBH, know they have a strong 15/16, but could they cope with a few injuries?

Doesnt really matter yet, we still dont know who will be battling for that 2nd spot yet. Still another 10 or so games before we need to be worrying about other teams results in particular.

One thing for sure is that Derby like everyone else will drop points!

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35 minutes ago, terrytini said:

People who think 7 points isn't much are almost certainly heading for a huge disappoinment. It is. It requires 3 sides to pretty much lose 3 on the spin while we Win 3 on the Spin AND that we then match those 3 sides for the rest of the season.

None of which is likely.  Possible, of course, but not likely.

In my view this result changes nothing, before it we had a fair chance of a Play Off place, and after it we have a fair chance of a Play Off place.

Doesn't have to be on the spin. It could be spread out over 21 games. Basically it means we have to win twice where they lose and draw once where they lose. Certainly not out of the question.

It's very doable for a consistent team to overcome, but we're not that which is why it's unlikely. We'll go on another bad run for sure before the end of the season so we have to hope the other teams do too.

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7 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Derby are perennial bottlejobs.

Every year is going to be their year and then they collapse.

Bit like Bristol city last year you mean ;)

Rowett is a very good manager - would love him at villa 

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3 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Doesn't have to be on the spin. It could be spread out over 21 games. Basically it means we have to win twice where they lose and draw once where they lose. Certainly not out of the question.

It's very doable for a consistent team to overcome, but we're not that which is why it's unlikely. We'll go on another bad run for sure before the end of the season so we have to hope the other teams do too.

One key thing is we have played all of the top 5 away already and they  have to visit villa park . 

Edited by Eastie
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1 minute ago, Eastie said:

Bit like Bristol city last year you mean ;)

Rowett is a very good manager - would love him at villa 

Last year was a bit more than a collapse :(

We have no idea how to break down teams who turn up just to defend.

Once teams work that out we are screwed.

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2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Last year was a bit more than a collapse :(

We have no idea how to break down teams who turn up just to defend.

Once teams work that out we are screwed.

Time will tell but I don’t think Bristol , sheff utd or Cardiff will finish in the top 6 . 

‘Wouldn’t write Fulham off yet either . 

‘That said Bristol city are making progress and deserve great praise for the season so far 

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5 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Doesn't have to be on the spin. It could be spread out over 21 games. Basically it means we have to win twice where they lose and draw once where they lose. Certainly not out of the question.

It's very doable for a consistent team to overcome, but we're not that which is why it's unlikely. We'll go on another bad run for sure before the end of the season so we have to hope the other teams do too.

I agree it doesn’t have to be on the spin, by “ pretty much” I meant “ equivalent to “ sorry for the lack of clarity . You are quite right :)

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31 minutes ago, Tayls said:

You lot are so grumpy! We will probably be ok. I’d say it’s almost 50-50 that we will get promoted. Soooo, stop worrying. 

:D

So with 10/12 teams in the hunt for 3 promotion spots you think the chances are 50/50 ?

For Gods sake don’t become a bookie !

 

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