17/18 Promotion Charge

[Vive_La_Villa]

4 minutes ago, villianusa said:

No, they are exactly the same. Two games on form and paper both teams should have won, they didn't. Nothing to do if they are exceptions or not, the point is games don't always go the way they should. Just ask Chelsea.

To be honest I haven't seen the highlights for the Wolves game. Were they also lucky to scrape a point?

edit: just checked the stats. 23 attempts to 1. 72% possession. 

Yes both ours and Wolves results were the same. But the manner of them was completed different.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Vive_La_Villa

[sne]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

To be honest I haven't seen the highlights for the Wolves game. Were they also lucky to scrape a point?

Me neither,from the stats they had 23-1 in shots and about 80% possession.

But then again the had a man advantage from the 60th minute.

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 minute ago, sne said:

Me neither,from the stats they had 23-1 in shots and about 80% possession.

But then again the had a man advantage from the 60th minute.

It is a shock result but it sounds like it was a hard fought point for Sunderland. I could handle our point it Millwall had parked the bus and really fought for it. What's hard to take is the fact our keeper was MotM! 

It really was a shockingly worrying performance that we were very lucky to scrape a point from. 

I think we will bounce back though because can't really play much worse than that. 

[Demitri_C]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It is a shock result but it sounds like it was a hard fought point for Sunderland. I could handle our point it Millwall had parked the bus and really fought for it. What's hard to take is the fact our keeper was MotM! 

It really was a shockingly worrying performance that we were very lucky to scrape a point from. 

I think we will bounce back though because can't really play much worse than that. 

Yes if that was a half decent side we would have lost that game, I think if Millwall had scored early we might have taken the game abit more seriously. I think we underestimated them to be honest. We were so poor, if we play anywhere near as bad as that against Derby they will beat us by 2 or 3 goals. 

[vreitti]

49 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It is a shock result but it sounds like it was a hard fought point for Sunderland. I could handle our point it Millwall had parked the bus and really fought for it. What's hard to take is the fact our keeper was MotM! 

It really was a shockingly worrying performance that we were very lucky to scrape a point from. 

I think we will bounce back though because can't really play much worse than that. 

What's really baffling is how we have to keep hoping to "bounce back" every other week. One would've thought we'd be a tad more consistent (performance wise) this far into Bruce's tenure.

[Grasshopper]

50 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It is a shock result but it sounds like it was a hard fought point for Sunderland. I could handle our point it Millwall had parked the bus and really fought for it. What's hard to take is the fact our keeper was MotM! 

It really was a shockingly worrying performance that we were very lucky to scrape a point from.  

100%

50 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I think we will bounce back though because can't really play much worse than that. 

^ let yourself down with this bit

if anyone can get us to perform any worse, Bruce IS that man.

[Grasshopper]

1 minute ago, vreitti said:

What's really baffling is how we have to keep hoping to "bounce back" every other week. One would've thought we'd be a tad more consistent (performance wise) this far into Bruce's tenure.

@vreitti

it‘s not baffling at all

it‘s Brucian ( @Lerner's Driver ) 

[Demitri_C]

3 minutes ago, Grasshopper said:

100%

^ let yourself down with this bit

if anyone can get us to perform any worse, Bruce IS that man.

As shown by most defeats have been followed up a win this year...

[Grasshopper]

7 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

As shown by most defeats have been followed up a win this year...

great stuff

let‘s lose so we can win the next game

3 from a possible 6pts gets us where?

[Demitri_C]

22 minutes ago, Grasshopper said:

great stuff

let‘s lose so we can win the next game

3 from a possible 6pts gets us where?

Barring that January period we have not been consistently worse that is massively incorrect grasshopper. we have been consistently better but had blips along the way. these blips need to happen lesser than what they have thats for sure if we have aspirations for top two. 

[VillaChris]

9 hours ago, One For The Road said:

This is pretty much what I said a few weeks ago, only for you to call me a doom monger. 

It seems you can now see the reality of the situation. We just aren't as good as you  seem to think whereas I think we are doing ok considering the players we have available.

Difference is I only started quoted you as you were saying this about falling out of the top 6 once Terry got injured. I'm on about finishing top 2 so there's obviously a difference. I still think we'll finish comfortably in the play offs but we ballsed up a very winnable home game and we can't have many more of those to make second.

I still see us picking up 30 + points from January but going to be a big problem if we don't win much in next 5 games and Cardiff do.

[VillaChris]

22 hours ago, dounavilla said:

Are Derby the new Real Madrid or something ? we certainly can beat them at pride park. I' not saying we will but it is not a certainty we wont. 

If this division has shown us anything, it that anyone can beat anyone.

They're in really good form atm especially upfront. Vydra is showing his Watford form again and Weimann scored at the weekend. I think our back four will struggle against their mobile strikers.

Will be an odd sort of game to watch. Rowett team so both teams will prefer the other team to have the ball and counter attack.

[Grasshopper]

17 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Barring that January period we have not been consistently worse that is massively incorrect grasshopper. we have been consistently better but had blips along the way. these blips need to happen lesser than what they have thats for sure if we have aspirations for top two. 

We’re all guilty of taking examples to the extreme.

The facts are simple

1st & 2nd gets us promoted automatically.

Q1 can we achieve that?

We would have to up our ppg ratio till the end of the season to do so. Every defeat would put us back 2 winning games to make it back up (over a win/draw/win/draw continual run) (that is then effectively a 4 game period of non-stop winning)

The more points we drop, the less games we have to make up the difference.

Playoffs

The reality of the playoffs is this. we would have to beat 2 out of the 3 playoff positioned teams (us being the 3rd)

IF our head to head with those teams (and teams at that level of „result getters“) is inferior, what can anyone base their judgement on?

it‘s mathematically 50/50 ONLY because someone has to win the tie/game (be it result, agg. or pens)

Surely that can not be an aim?

a „if it‘s all that‘s left“ yes

but ideal it is not.

[VillaChris]

We've got plenty of winnable games from January onwards. Look at some of the fixtures we have in February and March (Burton, SHA, QPR home, Hull, Sunderland, Bolton away etc).

I can see us having another run of 4-5 wins in a row in that period.

Problem will be though if we have a dip over the next few weeks and Cardiff get more wins so the gap to second is something stupid like 12-15 points. Would be too much I fear.

I'm basing my assumption we can still get second on the current gap not getting bigger than something like 8 or 9 points. Obviously if it does we've got little chance of turning that around unless Cardiff totally collapse in the run in.

 

[srsmithusa]

16 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

What has drawn you to such a conclusion may I ask?

Watching us play.  

[Grasshopper]

22 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

We've got plenty of winnable games from January onwards. Look at some of the fixtures we have in February and March (Burton, SHA, QPR home, Hull, Sunderland, Bolton away etc).

I can see us having another run of 4-5 wins in a row in that period.

Problem will be though if we have a dip over the next few weeks and Cardiff get more wins so the gap to second is something stupid like 12-15 points. Would be too much I fear.

I'm basing my assumption we can still get second on the current gap not getting bigger than something like 8 or 9 points. Obviously if it does we've got little chance of turning that around unless Cardiff totally collapse in the run in.

 

if it is ONLY 8/9pts are we going to win 3 MORE games than Cardiff whilst drawing/losing no more than them.

The ultimate irony would be that of a club spending £30+mill on forwards to fail getting 2nd (Auto) or even 6th on goal difference (Whilst having an International captain who has won the PL & CL and an International who reached a Euro semi-final as CB‘s in the 2nd teer)

[VillaChris]

Let's say it's 8 points going into the start of April.

Easter Monday (April 2nd I think). We play Reading at home. Cardiff go to Sheffield United. We win, they lose -= 5 points.

Following Saturday they play Wolves at home. We go to Ipswich/Norwich (can remember which one as we play both in the run in away). Cardiff- Wolves is a draw. We win in East Anglia.

Gap is then 3 points going into the following Tuesday when we play Cardiff at home. Beat them and possible then to go above them on GD with 3/4 games left.

That's obviously a best case scenario but shows you how gaps can be cut quickly.

Cardiff have a very tough last 10 games anyway so there would be an opportunity if we can stay in touch I reckon.

[Grasshopper]

22 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Let's say it's 8 points going into the start of April.

Easter Monday (April 2nd I think). We play Reading at home. Cardiff go to Sheffield United. We win, they lose -= 5 points.

Following Saturday they play Wolves at home. We go to Ipswich/Norwich (can remember which one as we play both in the run in away). Cardiff- Wolves is a draw. We win in East Anglia.

Gap is then 3 points going into the following Tuesday when we play Cardiff at home. Beat them and possible then to go above them on GD with 3/4 games left.

That's obviously a best case scenario but shows you how gaps can be cut quickly.

Cardiff have a very tough last 10 games anyway so there would be an opportunity if we can stay in touch I reckon.

I admire your optimism in calculating what could be.

The doubt I have is that DrT wont be here often enough to give enough motivational speeches and oversee the games to insure these 3 wins on the trot we will need.

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, Grasshopper said:

We’re all guilty of taking examples to the extreme.

The facts are simple

1st & 2nd gets us promoted automatically.

Q1 can we achieve that?

We would have to up our ppg ratio till the end of the season to do so. Every defeat would put us back 2 winning games to make it back up (over a win/draw/win/draw continual run) (that is then effectively a 4 game period of non-stop winning)

The more points we drop, the less games we have to make up the difference.

Playoffs

The reality of the playoffs is this. we would have to beat 2 out of the 3 playoff positioned teams (us being the 3rd)

IF our head to head with those teams (and teams at that level of „result getters“) is inferior, what can anyone base their judgement on?

it‘s mathematically 50/50 ONLY because someone has to win the tie/game (be it result, agg. or pens)

Surely that can not be an aim?

a „if it‘s all that‘s left“ yes

but ideal it is not.

I think if it comes to play offs I can't see us advancing we just do not handle pressure well at all. But saying that if the game was at a sold out rocking villa park second leg I don't think many teams would fancy beating us there.

like I said earlier in the thread if we beat derby the millwall result won't be deemed as bad as we expected to drop points. Hopefully reading win tonight and we have closed the gap by a point

[DaveAV1]

52 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Let's say it's 8 points going into the start of April.

Easter Monday (April 2nd I think). We play Reading at home. Cardiff go to Sheffield United. We win, they lose -= 5 points.

Following Saturday they play Wolves at home. We go to Ipswich/Norwich (can remember which one as we play both in the run in away). Cardiff- Wolves is a draw. We win in East Anglia.

Gap is then 3 points going into the following Tuesday when we play Cardiff at home. Beat them and possible then to go above them on GD with 3/4 games left.

That's obviously a best case scenario but shows you how gaps can be cut quickly.

Cardiff have a very tough last 10 games anyway so there would be an opportunity if we can stay in touch I reckon.

Well there’s nothing wrong with a bit of optimism, but the stats aren’t so encouraging. We are currently averaging 1.76 points per game, it is considered that we need 2 points per game over the season to get into the top two. To enable us to do that, from now on we need to average 2.2 points per game. In actual points, that means we can only drop another 20 points in the next 25 games. I wouldn’t put a great deal of money on that happening. 

I preffer your scenario though