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The push for the Play offs ?


hippo

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Just now, BOF said:

When we're not doing well, we worry about the future.  When we are doing well, we worry about the future of our better players :lol:

Always say I dont mind it when the big boys come sniffing round our players as it proves we are doing alright

 

 

....till it happens!

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We are playing Sheffield Wednesday soon too. Imagine we win that game as well.. wonder if people will actually take notice of it. I think Wednesday will slip out.. unfortunately there are quite a few teams above us and certainly one or two will make late charges. But hey remember John Gregorys first season.. everyone above us just kept losing. 

Im not expecting it this year.. but I do expect us to go on a run now. No excuses.. let's win 8-9 more games.. build confidence..Team spirit.. combinations.. lift crowds and atmosphere of the dressing room and fans. Next year we give it a shake. Don't think I can handle play off football.. so top two next season. There's no Aston villas or Newcastles dropping down.. so we should handle the three relegated teams hopefully.

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1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

Who against? Better be a home game!

Probably against a team who won't have won a game in ten, have a spate of injuries, leading to playing their tea lady in goal. 

I'm predicting an embarrassing 1-0 defeat for the Villa.

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2 hours ago, sparrow1988 said:

Probably against a team who won't have won a game in ten, have a spate of injuries, leading to playing their tea lady in goal. 

I'm predicting an embarrassing 1-0 defeat for the Villa.

& @Demitri_C

There's nothing scheduled up to the 5th of April but you'd assume we'll be on against the noses on the 23rd at the very least.

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2 minutes ago, BOF said:

& @Demitri_C

There's nothing scheduled up to the 5th of April but you'd assume we'll be on against the noses on the 23rd at the very least.

No doubt at 12.00 on Sunday afternoon as well. Being on TV will not stop us winning that one.  

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1 minute ago, John said:

No doubt at 12.00 on Sunday afternoon as well. Being on TV will not stop us winning that one.  

You would like to think so depends on various things form injuries etc. But we are pretty lame on tv. Hopefully be a big crowd for the blosers

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10 minutes ago, John said:

No doubt at 12.00 on Sunday afternoon as well. Being on TV will not stop us winning that one.  

It is definitely a Sunday noon kick off.  Although that's irrespective of being televised.

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I had a bit of time on my hands this morning as you will see below.

The maximum points that the teams who are currently more than 10 points above us can get (that might therefore be within range if we somehow achieve those magical 78 points) along with their remaining games are:

Leeds – 97 points (Small Heath (a), Fulham (a), QPR (h), Brighton (h), Reading (a), Brentford (a), Preston (h), Newcastle (a), Wolves (h), Burton (a), Norwich (h) & Wigan (a).

Reading – 96 points (Wolves (h), Newcastle (h), Preston (a), Sheff Weds (a), Leeds (h), Blackburn (h), Norwich (a), Villa (a), Rotherham (h), Forest (a), Wigan (h) & Burton (a).

Sheffield Wednesday – 94 points (Norwich (h), Burton (h), Villa (a), Reading (h), Barnsley (a), Rotherham (a), Newcastle (h), Cardiff (h), QPR (a), Derby (h), Ipswich (a) & Fulham (h).

Fulham – 92 points (Preston (h), Leeds (h), Newcastle (a), Blackburn (a), Wolves (h), Rotherham (a), Derby (a), Ipswich (h), Norwich (a), Villa (h), Huddersfield (a), Brentford (h) & Sheffield Weds (a).

My own forecast for the points these teams are likely to end up with from those games (assuming they lose any games against us) are:

Leeds 89, Reading 78, Sheffield Weds 77 & Fulham 70.  

We would need to win all of our remaining games to make top 6 if my forecasts are accurate or hope that Reading or Sheffield Weds go on the sort of run that we had at the start of this year and that we drop a maximum of 2 – 4 points at the very most having made up goal differences of 7 and 14 respectively should it come down to that. Given this, I think the odds are heavily stacked against us getting a top six spot or 78 points (although there still remains a very slender chance to cling to :D). My more realistic aim would now be a top ten finish and anything higher than that would be a bonus to take into next season but who wants to be realistic?

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When Bruce came we were 10 points off of 6th We are now 16 after an abysmal run. I want us to target 2pts a game until the end of the season and hopefully cut the gap in half. This would bode well for next season. It'd show if we started better and never collapsed we'd be at least in the playoffs. All talk now should be about automatic promotion next season. 

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21 hours ago, John said:

I had a bit of time on my hands this morning as you will see below.

The maximum points that the teams who are currently more than 10 points above us can get (that might therefore be within range if we somehow achieve those magical 78 points) along with their remaining games are:

Leeds – 97 points (Small Heath (a), Fulham (a), QPR (h), Brighton (h), Reading (a), Brentford (a), Preston (h), Newcastle (a), Wolves (h), Burton (a), Norwich (h) & Wigan (a).

Reading – 96 points (Wolves (h), Newcastle (h), Preston (a), Sheff Weds (a), Leeds (h), Blackburn (h), Norwich (a), Villa (a), Rotherham (h), Forest (a), Wigan (h) & Burton (a).

Sheffield Wednesday – 94 points (Norwich (h), Burton (h), Villa (a), Reading (h), Barnsley (a), Rotherham (a), Newcastle (h), Cardiff (h), QPR (a), Derby (h), Ipswich (a) & Fulham (h).

Fulham – 92 points (Preston (h), Leeds (h), Newcastle (a), Blackburn (a), Wolves (h), Rotherham (a), Derby (a), Ipswich (h), Norwich (a), Villa (h), Huddersfield (a), Brentford (h) & Sheffield Weds (a).

My own forecast for the points these teams are likely to end up with from those games (assuming they lose any games against us) are:

Leeds 89, Reading 78, Sheffield Weds 77 & Fulham 70.  

We would need to win all of our remaining games to make top 6 if my forecasts are accurate or hope that Reading or Sheffield Weds go on the sort of run that we had at the start of this year and that we drop a maximum of 2 – 4 points at the very most having made up goal differences of 7 and 14 respectively should it come down to that. Given this, I think the odds are heavily stacked against us getting a top six spot or 78 points (although there still remains a very slender chance to cling to :D). My more realistic aim would now be a top ten finish and anything higher than that would be a bonus to take into next season but who wants to be realistic?

Agree with this post. I've highlighted the games where those teams play each other...they can't both win those games :D

This shows that there is still so much to play for...still over a quarter of a season!

If we assume 75 points is the magic number for the play offs, the teams currently in those spots need:

  • 3rd Huddersfield (65) need 10 pts from 13 games
  • 4th Leeds (61) need 14 pts from 12 games
  • 5th Reading (60) need 15 pts from 12 games
  • 6th Sheff Wed (58) need 17 pts from 12 games

Huddersfield look nailed on for a top 6 spot. However the next 4 games for them are by no means a gimme. Newcastle and us at home then Brentford and Bristol City away. Pretty certain they will secure at least 10 more points this season. They will still be aiming for automatic promotion.

Leeds have been a revelation under Monk haven't they? Remember a lot of villa fans didn't want him coming to us after Lambert (doh!)...Obviously hop they win tonight, they are then just 11 pts away. 

Reading still have wolves, rotherham, wigan and blackburn to play at home, I expect them to win all of those games, and will certainly pick up a few draws as well at least. They are a shoe in for one of the spots.

Sheff Wed are probably the team most likely not to make it from the current top 6. 17 pts from 12 is not a simple task. They don't have too many straight forward  looking games left, and if they don't beat Norwich tomorrow it could get interesting.

 

So for my money everyone from Sheff Wed down to us is playing for 1 spot. Of the teams above us, there aren't too many that are capable of putting the sort of run together that will be required to snatch 6th place from Sheff Wed if they falter. By default, this may mean the 5pt cushion Sheff Wed currently have will be enough to see them home. 

Just (for a minute)....imagine if we somehow win on Saturday and then go and get a lucky 1-0 win at Huddersfield on Tuesday....then beat Sheff Wed next week :o

No way on earth we can do that.....but just imagine if we did put what would be 6 straight wins together, could we then start to dream? Certainly we would be brimming with confidence by then and most certainly be the 'form' team in the division. 

No...of course we couldn't....but....it's not impossible is it? , so whilst there's life there's hope!

The last 9 games (after Sheff Wed game) we have 5 at home and 4 away. 3 of those 4 away are against Wigan, Blackburn and Burton....

 

It's not in my nature to give up. Whilst we still have a chance then we have to believe. Of course the chances are slim...less than slim....but a chance is a chance!

I would be devastated if the players and Steve Bruce had given up hope whilst we still had a punchers chance....devastated! 

Until it's mathematically impossible....then I will always believe we can do it.!

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What IS clear even in the best case is that we're way past the point where "we must only concentrate on our on games".  Nope.  We're firmly in the "we need X to lose and Y to lose today" camp as well as obviously taking care of our own business, which was a gimme.

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57 minutes ago, ViewFromT2 said:

Agree with this post. I've highlighted the games where those teams play each other...they can't both win those games :D

Agreed. I gave the point(s) from these games as I guessed those results would go. I still think we will most likely need 78 points but I like your optimism and hope that say 74 might be enough so all we need to do is go ahead and get them to find out. :) 

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