The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[peterms]

One thing worth remembering about immigration is that the last Labour government set up an "impact fund" so that where there were concentrated pockets of immigration that might cause local pressure on schools or other services, action could be taken to address that.  It's clearly something that can help to counter local opposition (at least opposition which isn't based on outright racism), and it directly addresses objections based on perceived worsening of services because more people are using the same infrastructure and level of service that previously served fewer people.

The fund was pathetically underresourced, at £50m, but it was one of the first things the Tories and Lib Dems axed when they got in.  Here.

Quote

Fund to ease impact of immigration scrapped by stealth

Government quietly abandons Gordon Brown's £50m pot for councils to ease pressure on housing, schools and hospitals

 

[VILLAMARV]

13 minutes ago, snowychap said:

No, it doesn't - but it doesn't mean that it exists to the amount that people 'feel' or 'see with their own eyes' and it doesn't take in to account all of the other factors that may affect the wages of all people and especially those at the lower/lowest end of the pay scale.

Most people who talk about the issue properly talk about it in some sort of context - whether that's in terms of the estimated effect, whether that's in terms of the other factors which may also have affected people's wages (quite possibly in a much more significant way) and also in terms of the evidence gaps and limitations (as per the page on the Migration Observatory page as linked to in the original post) that are inherent in this type of study and analysis.

The point of all of this is that the concentration on immigration as a reason for people's wages/employment prospects being adversely affected is disproportionate to the effect that it (immigration) is estimated to have had.

The problem is that we have people jumping on a particular bit of data or report or conclusion to support their already held point of view (or so as to support some people's feelings or observations in a specific case) rather than taking from the data what it actually tells us and putting those conclusions in to an overall picture of what has happened, is happening and will happen.

I don't really know how to start to respond here. I'll plump for - Opening line that is neither sneering nor combative.

A strange response in the context of how the discussion has gone really from my perspective. More proof of what an emotive topic/thread this is. Sigh.

FWIW I agree with much of this, but find the way it is framed towards me rather confusing and a little bizarre. You seem to be hooked on the idea of me using data selectively for some obscure underhand reason when someone else has introduced it into the discussion, other people misinterpreted what it said and I've weighed in, using the same quoted information, and attempted to stop that misinterpretation being used as proof of individuals being mistaken, as per this post

On 17/08/2019 at 08:16, desensitized43 said:

The problem is how do you address people's "feelings"? The evidence has proven that their feeling that their wages are being suppressed isn't factually correct.

So literally attempting to address the thing you seem to be accusing me of when you say "people jumping on a particular bit of data or report or conclusion to support their already held point of view". In challenging this I literally introduced other factors in to the discussion - while at the same time doffing the cap to the crudeness of my dragging two sets of research and comparing the results in the process! - I also made the point that solely looking at aggregated data does not provide a complete picture and literally say at the end I am in no way trying to ascribe any suggestion of causation. I notice you didn't quote any of this while choosing the phrase "people who talk about the issue properly" to make a point about 'other factors'. Like I've said. To me it is an utterly bizarre response to what I've written.

But there's the bits I can agree with you on.

48 minutes ago, snowychap said:

it doesn't mean that it exists to the amount that people 'feel' or 'see with their own eyes' and it doesn't take in to account all of the other factors that may affect the wages of all people and especially those at the lower/lowest end of the pay scale.

....... estimated effect.........other factors..... evidence gaps and limitations that are inherent ....

.... the concentration on immigration as a reason for people's wages/employment prospects being adversely affected is disproportionate to the effect that it (immigration) is estimated to have had.

So, it seems, we share much common ground around the actual issue. If you are particularly interested in my POV, perhaps asking what it is may be a better way of going about finding out what it is, rather than this suggestive nonsense presumably fuelled by some strange presumption that I would think any differently?

If you don't like the thing I highlighted in the data that was presented to us, then feel free to disagree with it.

[snowychap]

 

[Genie]

I still keep praying that kinda out of the blue theres an announcement of a generally palatable deal agreed that should go through government and things will stay pretty much as they are... Earlier than the 11th hour. A real surprise and delight moment.

Some saaay I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

[peterms]

 

[StefanAVFC]

11 hours ago, snowychap said:

 

Quote

Her predecessor Sajid Javid had promised a whole new immigration act outlining new border structures would be in place before Britain left the EU, but Ministers intend to delay all Brexit legislation until after Halloween in order to prevent Remainer MPs from using the bills to try to frustrate our exit.

Blimey.

So because of 'Remainers' no Brexit legislation will go through before October 31st?

We are fooked.

[NurembergVillan]

24 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Blimey.

So because of 'Remainers' no Brexit legislation will go through before October 31st?

We are fooked.

The right wing coup is in full effect.  It's a hostile takeover.

[snowychap]

10 hours ago, Genie said:

I still keep praying that kinda out of the blue theres an announcement of a generally palatable deal agreed that should go through government and things will stay pretty much as they are... Earlier than the 11th hour. A real surprise and delight moment.

Some saaay I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

It needs to come well before the 11th hour because otherwise there would need to be a relatively hefty extension asked for in order to pass all of the legislation required to leave with an agreement (implementation bill/ratification/various other legislation).

[ml1dch]

11 hours ago, Genie said:

I still keep praying that kinda out of the blue theres an announcement of a generally palatable deal agreed that should go through government and things will stay pretty much as they are... Earlier than the 11th hour. A real surprise and delight moment.

While I appreciate that your post is more in hope than expectation, I really can't work out what you think could possibly appear.

This is all happening because lots of angry people have decided that they don't want things to "stay pretty much as they are".

Including the current Government.

[snowychap]

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

Priti Patel is a monstrous human being yet continues to be rewarded at the very highest level.

[blandy]

Site Guidelines

Quote

 

Please stay on topic.

please agree to disagree, rather than prolonging debate or argument of the same points

 

Could posters use pm's please if you wish to debate each others motives, intent and statistical analysis techniques or interpretations.

[HanoiVillan]

14 hours ago, snowychap said:

This plan seems, on its face, to be nonsensical. As far as I can tell, there is no visa that EU citizens can apply for for short visits. What's more, the cut-off date for applications for Leave to Remain for EU citizens is not for a long time into the future. There will be no way for EU citizens who have lived here before to prove their residency in the UK, unless they take paper copies of bills and bank statements when travelling home. The likely outcome of actually implementing this decision would surely be chaos at the border, as thousands of sympathetic cases (came back to see my mother on her death bed! Coming to begin training as a nurse in the NHS! Coming to become a coach for a football team!) get detained in Heathrow, and journalists find them for interviews. 

[bickster]

All this shite is going to make the EU more resolved to not change anything which is the opposite of the supposed desired effect

[StefanAVFC]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

This plan seems, on its face, to be nonsensical. As far as I can tell, there is no visa that EU citizens can apply for for short visits. What's more, the cut-off date for applications for Leave to Remain for EU citizens is not for a long time into the future. There will be no way for EU citizens who have lived here before to prove their residency in the UK, unless they take paper copies of bills and bank statements when travelling home. The likely outcome of actually implementing this decision would surely be chaos at the border, as thousands of sympathetic cases (came back to see my mother on her death bed! Coming to begin training as a nurse in the NHS! Coming to become a coach for a football team!) get detained in Heathrow, and journalists find them for interviews. 

Hardline Tories and sense?

Naaaaaaaaah

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

This plan seems, on its face, to be nonsensical. As far as I can tell, there is no visa that EU citizens can apply for for short visits. What's more, the cut-off date for applications for Leave to Remain for EU citizens is not for a long time into the future. There will be no way for EU citizens who have lived here before to prove their residency in the UK, unless they take paper copies of bills and bank statements when travelling home. The likely outcome of actually implementing this decision would surely be chaos at the border, as thousands of sympathetic cases (came back to see my mother on her death bed! Coming to begin training as a nurse in the NHS! Coming to become a coach for a football team!) get detained in Heathrow, and journalists find them for interviews. 

It’s more posturing to try and make the EU blink in this game of chicken the UK government is playing. 

[bickster]

49 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It’s more posturing to try and make the EU blink in this game of chicken the UK government is playing. 

Yep but the EU can't but help to have noticed how it's all rhetoric with no actual planning or infrastructure changes behind it. The idea that in this day and age you can bullshit politicians in high office to this level is quite astonishing

The end to freedom of movement for EU citizens on Oct 31st being just one such example. It is utter nonsense, there is no infrastructure in place nor will there be to even make this possible by Oct 31st

[bickster]

The former Rottweiler now known as John McDonnell now appears to be saying that he would back Remain over any Labour negotiated Brexit Deal

I say appears because its in The Times and the paywall prevents me reading the whole piece.

Interesting because he appears to be telling Corbyn to give up the ghost on his unicorns

I'll look forward to yet another volte-face from my current imbecile representative in Westminster. He's changed his position on Brexit more times than I care to mention, I'm shocked he hasn't screwed himself to the ground

[cyrusr]

37 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'll look forward to yet another volte-face from my current imbecile representative in Westminster. He's changed his position on Brexit more times than I care to mention, I'm shocked he hasn't screwed himself to the ground

It'll be interesting to see how many of the Tories that voted for no-deal back in March turn face now that Boris is heading in that direction and the only apparent alternative is Corbyn. I suspect it will be a lot closer than it should be...

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Yep but the EU can't but help to have noticed how it's all rhetoric with no actual planning or infrastructure changes behind it. The idea that in this day and age you can bullshit politicians in high office to this level is quite astonishing

The end to freedom of movement for EU citizens on Oct 31st being just one such example. It is utter nonsense, there is no infrastructure in place nor will there be to even make this possible by Oct 31st

I really don't understand what they're actually hoping to happen. I think I understand the parliamentary games and manouevres quite well, but what they want the EU to do, say or think is a bit of a closed book. As you say, it's not hard to discern that we simply aren't ready for any of this stuff, and so far the EU hasn't really budged on anything. Saying 'we will detain lots of your citizens at the border on a timeline we have unilaterally decided' seems unlikely to win any friends or concessions.