The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Xann]

6 hours ago, bickster said:

You realise the Stena Impero still hasn’t been released?

Of course.

The bomb first, no answers later - oh it was an oil war approach has killed a million people.

It's also delighted Israel, whose regional adversaries have been destabilised nicely, and they've had a nice distraction to go about kicking the Palestinians under.

Corbyn's not going to sign up to this, it's one of his virtues.Though dick heads will see at as cosying up to terrorists. Will he really go about about selling guns to Hamas? Almost definitely not, I'd say. He's a dialogue man.

Corbyn has the potential to be a breath of fresh air in the region. He certainly won't be on the Bolton bus, that has to be a good thing, unless you've got shares in weapon manufacture?

Would you really be surprised if a Corbyn premiership saw Iran suddenly softening, then everyone getting their ships back?

[desensitized43]

8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

That's why it's ironic (well at least why I think it's ironic. Full disclosure I still struggle with what irony actually means )

 

Let's be honest, a LOT of people who voted Leave would have voted because of immigration (or at least held that as a major factor). And by immigration we of course mainly mean people who aren't white.
So to stop immigration of non-white people, they've voted for an outcome that will almost certainly directly increase the number of non-white people.

They just hate foreigners. Doesn't matter what colour they are. They don't like any of them but I imagine you're correct that there's some kind of imperial-era style hierarchy to who they dislike more.

Judging by the way we hear they're quite happy to see the other nations of the UK go their own way, it seems they don't much like them either.

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

They just hate foreigners. Doesn't matter what colour they are. They don't like any of them but I imagine you're correct that there's some kind of imperial-era style hierarchy to who they dislike more.

I think it probably does, sadly.

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Xann said:

Of course.

The bomb first, no answers later - oh it was an oil war approach has killed a million people.

It's also delighted Israel, whose regional adversaries have been destabilised nicely, and they've had a nice distraction to go about kicking the Palestinians under.

Corbyn's not going to sign up to this, it's one of his virtues.Though dick heads will see at as cosying up to terrorists. Will he really go about about selling guns to Hamas? Almost definitely not, I'd say. He's a dialogue man.

Corbyn has the potential to be a breath of fresh air in the region. He certainly won't be on the Bolton bus, that has to be a good thing, unless you've got shares in weapon manufacture?

Would you really be surprised if a Corbyn premiership saw Iran suddenly softening, then everyone getting their ships back?

Your opinion (and mine) is irrelevant here, the only opinions of Corbyn that matter right now are those of his fellow MPs. This plan cannot happen with him as leader because of those that have a stake in this, our opinions don't matter right now. There's absolutely no point in debating this about our own opinions, they don't matter. To see why Corbyn can't lead this, you need to put yourself in the shoes of others, the MPs that might want to back this but won't because of Corbyn. It also doesn't matter whether they are right or wrong, what matters is that they have the opinion.

 

[Xann]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

... the MPs that might want to back this but won't because of the tax swerving media's reaction.

Though the thought of the REAL damage Brexit will cause to the UK should stiffen their spines for the printed outrage.

This sobering reality does seem to have sunk in with a handful of Tories, as we are seeing.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Designer1 said:

I'd be interested to know how likely you chaps think No Deal is now? It seems to have veered from 'Not at all' to 'Possible' over the last few months.

Back in Jan Feb March, I was certain, and said so, that the notion of No Deal at the end of March (and then again June) was a nil percent chance.

This time round, maybe 15-20% chance, purely by **** up, really. There's still the same actual facts - the EU doesn't want it, the UK doesn't want it, neither the EU nor the UK are remotely prepared for it, the consequences are dire for both.

But By sheer incompetence it's possible that the Tory bluff (as I think that's all this is) will be called, or that one of the EU nations (France) will, for their domestic short term reasons block any further extension.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

54 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

59 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

They just hate foreigners. Doesn't matter what colour they are. They don't like any of them but I imagine you're correct that there's some kind of imperial-era style hierarchy to who they dislike more.

I think it probably does, sadly.

I bet they all forget if they are in hospital awaiting a life saving operation.  

[Genie]

59 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

They just hate foreigners. Doesn't matter what colour they are. They don't like any of them but I imagine you're correct that there's some kind of imperial-era style hierarchy to who they dislike more.

Judging by the way we hear they're quite happy to see the other nations of the UK go their own way, it seems they don't much like them either.

From my experience, a few of my old school friends who are now tradesmen have enormous resentment towards Easter European (mainly white) workers undercutting them for jobs and keeping their wages down.

There's also obviously the dark skin so probably a terrorist element of it too.

If we there's better control of who lives here they'll have more money and less likely to be blown up or radicalised.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I bet they all forget if they are in hospital awaiting a life saving operation.  

I have had this argument. Or at the dentist, or having physiotherapy, or getting fuel in the middle of the night etc etc

[desensitized43]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

From my experience, a few of my old school friends who are now tradesmen have enormous resentment towards Easter European (mainly white) workers undercutting them for jobs and keeping their wages down.

There's also obviously the dark skin so probably a terrorist element of it too.

If we there's better control of who lives here they'll have more money and less likely to be blown up or radicalised.

I get the argument that there's been a certain degree of wage supression but it's so difficult to quantify though. I've not seen any figures to show how much wages have been supressed by people from the EU coming in.

Speaking from my perspective, as long as a tradesman I'm hiring is qualified i.e. not a cowboy, I'm probably going to go with the best price. That's not the eastern European peoples fault. I'd have to ask why white Britons are charging more? Are they ripping me off as a consumer or is this just market forces at work?

An example would be, why would I buy a UK-made shirt from M&S for double the price to one made in the far east from Primark? Should we ban goods coming in from overseas to protect M&S?

[snowychap]

4 hours ago, Designer1 said:

I'd be interested to know how likely you chaps think No Deal is now? It seems to have veered from 'Not at all' to 'Possible' over the last few months.

Considerably more likely than not, in my view. As a figure? 75% chance. I hope I'm wrong but I think it requires too many things to align in order for it not to happen.

I also think that there will be more unilateral mitigations in preparation for it so it won't appear quite so bad as it actually is when it happens.

[Genie]

45 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

I get the argument that there's been a certain degree of wage supression but it's so difficult to quantify though. I've not seen any figures to show how much wages have been supressed by people from the EU coming in.

Speaking from my perspective, as long as a tradesman I'm hiring is qualified i.e. not a cowboy, I'm probably going to go with the best price. That's not the eastern European peoples fault. I'd have to ask why white Britons are charging more? Are they ripping me off as a consumer or is this just market forces at work?

An example would be, why would I buy a UK-made shirt from M&S for double the price to one made in the far east from Primark? Should we ban goods coming in from overseas to protect M&S?

Agree with all of this. I just know the perception of my old friends is that they'd be much better off if it were not for this cheaper labour. How true that is I've no idea. These people are very strong and vocal that Brexit is the way forward.

A couple of times I've hired tradesmen who have arrived and been Eastern European I've been amazed at just how hard they've worked. Above and beyond what I'd asked them to do.

When I've had my old friends round to do jobs the opposite. Overpriced (even for a mate) and did the minimum, came with the "not my job" attitude.

[desensitized43]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

Agree with all of this. I just know the perception of my old friends is that they'd be much better off if it were not for this cheaper labour. How true that is I've no idea. These people are very strong and vocal that Brexit is the way forward.

A couple of times I've hired tradesmen who have arrived and been Eastern European I've been amazed at just how hard they've worked. Above and beyond what I'd asked them to do.

When I've had my old friends round to do jobs the opposite. Overpriced (even for a mate) and did the minimum, came with the "not my job" attitude.

This why I don't have a great amount of sympathy for that argument. These are people that want me to pay more for a job than would be appropriate under "normal" market forces.

Basically, it's protectionism. Ironically one of the things Brexit folk will point to the EU and criticise it for. Ultimately what they don't understand is that the builder that's benefiting from this protectionism against polish builders coming in and undercutting his price, will himself have to pay more for clothes, food, electronics etc because of the same rules. Wiping out any perceived increase in his pay.

 

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, bickster said:

Your opinion (and mine) is irrelevant here, the only opinions of Corbyn that matter right now are those of his fellow MPs. This plan cannot happen with him as leader because of those that have a stake in this, our opinions don't matter right now. There's absolutely no point in debating this about our own opinions, they don't matter. To see why Corbyn can't lead this, you need to put yourself in the shoes of others, the MPs that might want to back this but won't because of Corbyn. It also doesn't matter whether they are right or wrong, what matters is that they have the opinion.

I have put myself in the shoes of MP's who say they want an extension but won't vote for a Corbyn-led government that simply applies for one and then calls an election, and I have concluded that their revealed preference is for a No Deal Brexit over such a government. That's damning, not of Corbyn but of them, and I don't see why people shouldn't say that to them in an attempt to get them to *change* their opinion (even if I suspect such an attempt is doomed). 

[peterms]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

MP's who say they want an extension but won't vote for a Corbyn-led government that simply applies for one and then calls an election

I see the phrase they commonly use to justify their position is "putting Corbyn in number 10" or similar.  I suspect this phrase is used because it sounds like him forming a government for a term, rather than fronting a fragile arrangement for a short period, always dependent on the continuing support of other parties.  I think it's designed to make their position sound reasonable and responsible, rather than petulant and self-regarding.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

I have put myself in the shoes of MP's who say they want an extension but won't vote for a Corbyn-led government that simply applies for one and then calls an election, and I have concluded that their revealed preference is for a No Deal Brexit over such a government. That's damning, not of Corbyn but of them, and I don't see why people shouldn't say that to them in an attempt to get them to *change* their opinion (even if I suspect such an attempt is doomed). 

IMO your preferred approach has less chance of success, there's little point in putting up pre-conditions before talks. Talk about it, reach the common ground and then discuss the solutions to the issues people have, don't create the issues first, that road is doomed from the start

[Enda]

6 hours ago, desensitized43 said:

I get the argument that there's been a certain degree of wage supression but it's so difficult to quantify though. I've not seen any figures to show how much wages have been supressed by people from the EU coming in.

Economist incoming 

 

• Dustmann et al (2005) Economic Journal, "Using data from the British Labour Force Survey this article provides an empirical investigation of the way immigration affects labour market outcomes of native born workers in Britain ... We find no strong evidence that immigration has overall effects on aggregate employment, participation, unemployment and wages."

 

• Manacorda et al (2012) JEEA, "Immigration to the UK, particularly among more educated workers, has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply. However studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native-born workers in the UK. This is potentially puzzling... this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle, namely that in the UK natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes. We show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants—and in particular of university educated immigrants—with little discernable effect on the wages of the native-born."

 

• Dustmann (yep, same guy) et al (2013) REStud, "This paper analyses the effect immigration has on the wages of native workers ... we find a pattern of effects whereby immigration depresses wages below the 20th percentile of the wage distribution but leads to slight wage increases in the upper part of the wage distribution."

 

Conclusion: there is limited evidence for EU immigration depressing natives' wages, the effect is somewhere between zero and small.

[peterms]

Video footage of Swinson changing her position, following pressure from Lucas and Sturgeon.

 

[ml1dch]

 

Pretty big scoop for The Telegraph.

No other evidence until now. Apart from everything they've said and everything they've done for the last three years.

 

[peterms]

1 hour ago, Enda said:

Conclusion: there is limited evidence for EU immigration depressing natives' wages, the effect is somewhere between zero and small.

But also see this.

Quote

Immigration has small impact on average wages but more significant impacts along the wage distribution: low-waged workers lose while medium and high-paid workers gain

One of the features of the whole Brexit debate has been the sense that some people feel they are are being talked down to, the evidence of their own eyes denied.  Some people have found their wages depressed by immigration.  Farm labourers and catering staff are likely to be examples.  I don't know whether the construction trades mentioned earlier are also examples, but they seem to feel they are.

We need to recognise and address these effects, rather than only talking about averages and aggregated data, or else people will understandably feel they are being lied to.