The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[desensitized43]

53 minutes ago, bickster said:

Jo Swinson actually came up with Harriet Harman, Mother of the House and has already been interim leader of the Labour Party. No ambition to replace Corbyn whatsoever and the Labour membership didn't object to her last time she stepped in to a position of leadership.

It's actually not that bad a shout as she's been almost anonymous in the whole Brexit debacle

It's never going to happen though, is it?

To get this VONC through, they'll need every vote to go their way. Corbyn and his merry band of closet communists aren't going to agree to that as it immediately kills him and their project to drag Labour back to the seventies. They'll whip against it (3 line probably) and you're then talking about a vast majority of the Labour party having to defy the parties whip.

[Stevo985]

Just now, Designer1 said:

I'd be interested to know how likely you chaps think No Deal is now? It seems to have veered from 'Not at all' to 'Possible' over the last few months.

I've maintained all along that I don't think Brexit would happen at all. Let alone a no deal.

I'm far from an expert so I couldn't really base it on anything other than a hunch. It is just such a monumentally shit idea that I always thought deep down most of the politicians involved knew it wasn't the right thing to do and it would eventually be decided that we wouldn't do it.

 

That had disappeared since Johnson became PM. I now think it will happen, and I think it will happen with no deal.

 

I used to say that it need someone strong on either side to be in power and to put their foot down. That wasn't Theresa May. It either needed someone as PM to say "This is not going to work, we're pulling the plug" or "We are leaving regardless of the consequences"

I think I was partly right. I just got the adjective wrong. We haven't got a strong PM. We've got a stupid PM. The result is the same.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

3 minutes ago, Designer1 said:

I'd be interested to know how likely you chaps think No Deal is now? It seems to have veered from 'Not at all' to 'Possible' over the last few months.

5%,  Boris is trying to play a game of Russian roulette where nobody wants the other person to die and Boris won't pass the gun on at the moment and there are no bullets in the gun.  So 5%.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

It's never going to happen though, is it?

Essentially it's down to how many Tories and we really don't know how many Tories will join in this. There may be a number who haven't shown their hand at all during all this. Who knows? I doubt anyone does

[desensitized43]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

Essentially it's down to how many Tories and we really don't know how many Tories will join in this. There may be a number who haven't shown their hand at all during all this. Who knows? I doubt anyone does

I don't think there will be many who actively vote for a Corbyn government. That's the end of them, politically.

It'll be down to the number who abstain to save face. Those guys can still have a future under the next person.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

I don't think there will be many who actively vote for a Corbyn government.

Which is why... 

[welnik]

19 hours ago, blandy said:

It's just my perception, but no, absolutely not. They're not.

It's like this (in my view, with some back up from known facts)

The tories want and alsways have wanted Brexit (since the Ref). May tried to get a deal through parliament, her deal failed 3 times because of her red lines and because, specifically the throbbers hate the backstop. The throbbers said "the backstop has to go" they don't much care about the rest of the deal, it's hard enough for them.

Boris Johnson voted for the May deal at the last vote.

The throbbers have always claimed that they want a deal, but that the EU has to believe we are prepared to walk away, that "no deal" has to be kept on the table as a negotiating strategy. That the EU has to believe we mean it.

Johnson's strategy since he came in has been to do exactly what the thobbers have been saying needed to be done - make the EU believe we mean we're OK with no deal. By definition, this means others also have to believe we are OK with no deal.

That's all all this is. It's an enactment of the throbber negotiating tactic. They hope the EU will crack a bit, offer them something, then they'll put it to parliament, and they hope that the "threat" of no deal, plus the tweak from the EU will get basically May's deal (with the tweak) through parliament by 31 October.

That's been (in my eyes) transparent since Johnson took over. He/they don't actually  mean or want no deal. It's their act, their game. They're spending moey and time and effort to try to scare enough EU people. That's all this is. Playing throbby games.

It actually aids them, to an extent when opposition or media raise how terrible it all is and how the tories are going to no deal Brexit - it helps with the perception it's "real".

But their desire, the real one, is for a revised deal. The "commitment" to no deal is entirely fake (apart from a tiny handful of full on nutters).

The two big risks they have, are that either they scare enough moderate Tory MPs into siding with the opposition parties and they hoof out Johnson as a consequence, or that the EU calls their bluff, and caught between a lie and a hard place, they have to follow their own lie (though I believe that actaully would be stopped, one way or another) . Either way they're utterly goosed, ultimately.

 

 

I believe there is also the matter of the £39B divorce bill if we leave with a deal. Without that ,the whole thing comes crashing down. France is about to go into recession, the German government now own Deutsche Bank cos it's bankrupt, the whole EU project is teetering on the brink. They need the money! No-one wants no deal. This is just another negotiating tactic.

[Chindie]

55 minutes ago, Designer1 said:

I'd be interested to know how likely you chaps think No Deal is now? It seems to have veered from 'Not at all' to 'Possible' over the last few months.

It's quite likely.

The Tories are in charge and they aren't acting rationally in the interests in the nation, they're acting in the interests of the party which is committed to 'delivering Brexit' *spit* because that's what their membership wants, and the deal they can get isn't getting through Parliament and isn't popular with their membership either.

It's the most likely outcome at the moment imo. Which is absurd. But here we are.

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, welnik said:

I believe there is also the matter of the £39B divorce bill if we leave with a deal. Without that ,the whole thing comes crashing down. France is about to go into recession, the German government now own Deutsche Bank cos it's bankrupt, the whole EU project is teetering on the brink. They need the money! No-one wants no deal. This is just another negotiating tactic.

Bless.

[Designer1]

12 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It's quite likely.

The Tories are in charge and they aren't acting rationally in the interests in the nation, they're acting in the interests of the party which is committed to 'delivering Brexit' *spit* because that's what their membership wants, and the deal they can get isn't getting through Parliament and isn't popular with their membership either.

It's the most likely outcome at the moment imo. Which is absurd. But here we are.

How utterly depressing (but thanks anyway).

[desensitized43]

9 minutes ago, welnik said:

I believe there is also the matter of the £39B divorce bill if we leave with a deal. Without that ,the whole thing comes crashing down. France is about to go into recession, the German government now own Deutsche Bank cos it's bankrupt, the whole EU project is teetering on the brink. They need the money! No-one wants no deal. This is just another negotiating tactic.

It's not £39b any more. It's more like £32 because we've already started to pay this.

Also, I hate to break this to you, but it's not going to come crashing down just because we aren't going to pay £32b over however many years we agreed to pay this. Other countries will plug that hole, if they don't they'll be more frugal with how they're spending money or they'll find a way to borrow it.

Institutions/countries of that size and scale don't collapse into bankrupcy over £32b...They want the money but what is more likely to collapse the EU is if they abandon the principles that underpin the entire institution. Particularly for a nasty bunch of xenophobes like Boris and the ERG.

[NurembergVillan]

23 minutes ago, welnik said:

the German government now own Deutsche Bank

No they don't.

[cyrusr]

18 minutes ago, welnik said:

I believe there is also the matter of the £39B divorce bill if we leave with a deal. Without that ,the whole thing comes crashing down. France is about to go into recession, the German government now own Deutsche Bank cos it's bankrupt, the whole EU project is teetering on the brink. They need the money! No-one wants no deal. This is just another negotiating tactic.

Whilst that is true, it still comes down to we are always, always going to be worse off than Europe in a “no deal” and Europe knows that. Europe only has to resolve issue with trade with 1 country, we have to renegotiate deals with everyone. Yes they have managed to sort out some major players such as the Faroe Islands, Central America and Liechtenstein, we might need to sort out a few of the smaller countries such as USA, China, Japan and South Korea. 

With the divorce bill, the EU can also simply use it as a ploy for negotiations as well, and as @desensitized43 has said, we have already started paying this anyway.

The problems with the “deal” boil down to our own “red lines”. The hard border is purely because May refused to have a customs union as a possible outcome of the negotiations.The whole reason for the lack of a deal is our own fault.

Boris et al keep spinning it as EU’s fault but it simply isn’t. All this ranting they do is only for their own supporters and so they can pass the blame when it hits the fan. 

[VILLAMARV]

 

[bickster]

This should please the throbbers, figures as reported in the throbber bible. It's another in a long series of be careful what you wish for

Quote

NHS bosses have recruited 4,000 Asian nurses to replace EU staff who quit after Brexit referendum, new figures show
Number of EU nurses plunged by around 3,000 after 2016 Brexit referendum
NHS then recruited 4,000 nurses from Philippines and other Asian countries
As of March six per cent of all NHS staff and one in ten doctors were from the EU

Daily Mail

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

31 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

own Deutsche Bank

I think you are correct regarding this bank,  as a global bank it's finished. 

I don't think anyone actually wants to own it either and I think some has been sold off. 

A merge was talked about but I don't think any shareholders want to join with it.

How this would effect the EU is anyone's guess.  I suspect mechanisms are now in place to mitigate (or even gain from) the impact of bank problems in respect of the EU also. 

With any bank like that,  it's the toxic stuff in the back that's currently hidden.  That's the worry I suppose.  

[Stevo985]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

This should please the throbbers, figures as reported in the throbber bible. It's another in a long series of be careful what you wish for

Daily Mail

Kind of ironic really

 

Predictable by the rest of us, but ironic.

[Chindie]

I have said since the beginning that it'll be funny seeing the reaction of Brexiteers to the replacement of the largely invisible EU migration with the much more obviously 'different' Asian migration that no doubt they're already fully against.

[desensitized43]

13 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I have said since the beginning that it'll be funny seeing the reaction of Brexiteers to the replacement of the largely invisible EU migration with the much more obviously 'different' Asian migration that no doubt they're already fully against.

Yep, that's why I'm generally quite loath to describe those who voted for Brexit as racist. There are certainly racists among them but I'd argue the vast majority are more accurately described as xenophobes.

You will often hear people saying things like "we'll make our own laws" as if laws made exclusively by those they would certainly describe as "native" are somehow better than those made in collaboration with fellow Europeans. That's xenophobia. 

[Stevo985]

22 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I have said since the beginning that it'll be funny seeing the reaction of Brexiteers to the replacement of the largely invisible EU migration with the much more obviously 'different' Asian migration that no doubt they're already fully against.

That's why it's ironic (well at least why I think it's ironic. Full disclosure I still struggle with what irony actually means )

 

Let's be honest, a LOT of people who voted Leave would have voted because of immigration (or at least held that as a major factor). And by immigration we of course mainly mean people who aren't white.
So to stop immigration of non-white people, they've voted for an outcome that will almost certainly directly increase the number of non-white people.