The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Brumerican]

Halloween ?

More like Byeweeout.

Can almost taste those bendy bananas.

[HanoiVillan]

6 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Now Brexit has been renewed for a third season what plot lines are we expecting? General election? 2nd Referendum?

I hope I'm wrong, and maybe the difficulty of passing legislation through this Parliament will mean an election, but my assumption is that May won't do anything at all until it's a pre-condition of getting an extension. 

[villa4europe]

from what i can tell the main 3 things are - 

•  extended to no later 31st October but flexible so we can leave before
•  we must hold EU elections or we leave with no deal on the 1st June
•  the EU are still unwilling to re-negotiate, Mays deal is the only possible deal left

so I'm fully expecting Corbyn's response to be vote him in and let him negotiate a better deal...the only purpose of a GE would be to try and strengthen a majority in parliament to push something through that had previously been reject, in reality I think it would go the other way, a GE would leave a hung parliament and MPs voting the way that their constituency voted on the EU rather than with their party so parliament could get more indecisive 

expect 4 months of nothing followed by 2 months of the same

Edited April 11, 2019 by villa4europe

[bickster]

7 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Now Brexit has been renewed for a third season what plot lines are we expecting? General election? 2nd Referendum?

[VILLAMARV]

I think we're the zombies

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

I think we're the zombies

You are possibly correct

[VILLAMARV]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

You are possibly correct

sunshine + dog

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, villa4europe said:

•  the EU are still unwilling to re-negotiate, Mays deal is the only possible deal left

so I'm fully expecting Corbyn's response to be vote him in and let him negotiate a better deal..

This part is not correct, and you misunderstand the situation as a result. The changes that Labour are seeking are to the Political Declaration, not the Withdrawal Agreement. Labour's 'better deal', whether you agree with it or not, does not consist of a different Withdrawal Agreement, which is correctly understood on both front benches to be impossible to amend. The Political Declaration, which sets out the future relationship, absolutely can be amended, a fact which EU figures repeat at every opportunity. The only thing preventing amendments to it are May's 'red lines' about a customs union and freedom of movement. 

[snowychap]

2 hours ago, villa4europe said:

expect 4 months of nothing followed by 2 months of the same

Another six months of déjà vu, then.

Edited April 11, 2019 by snowychap

[NurembergVillan]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Healthiest she's looked in a while.

[ml1dch]

 

 

 

[snowychap]

 

[HanoiVillan]

I find the idea that it's 'too easy to assume EU will simply keep rolling [extensions]' fairly hard to square with the fact that, having claimed for months and months (and as recently as last week) that any extension would require a concrete plan, and probably a national vote of some kind, that they apparently decided not to exercise that leverage at all, and gave an extension with essentially no conditions attached. 

Obviously this is my own conclusion, and I'm perfectly open to disagreement and being proven wrong, but I suspect that EU powers quite like this current situation, where they don't have to deal with a no deal scenario, but the uncertainty around the UK remains, and they can continue to bleed away foreign investment that might otherwise have come here. I notice that strong words were said last night about making sure that the UK didn't have any sort of meaningful say on any issues over the next few months. Seems quite a comfortable position to me. 

Edited April 11, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[Enda]

16 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

 an extension with essentially no conditions attached. 

I think the timing of the Euopean elections was important.

[snowychap]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I find the idea that it's 'too easy to assume EU will simply keep rolling [extensions]' fairly hard to square with the fact that, having claimed for months and months (and as recently as last week) that any extension would require a concrete plan, and probably a national vote of some kind, that they apparently decided not to exercise that leverage at all, and gave an extension with essentially no conditions attached.

Isn't that firstly basing a long time forecast on a single event (I'd view last night's extension along with the extension of a few weeks ago, really) and, secondly, ignoring the points being made in that thread above, i.e. a movement towards the Macron position and away from the Tusk/Merkel end of the EU27 'unanimity'?

The point here is that they seemingly got tipped away from the majority position of an extension up to the end of the year or next March because of the position of one (albeit large and important) member state in order to maintain the unanimous position. It won't take all of them - just a few- to move to the same thinking as Macron & the French to tip it towards a much firmer line, i.e. not just rolling extensions.

15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Obviously this is my own conclusion, and I'm perfectly open to disagreement and being proven wrong, but I suspect that EU powers quite like this current situation, where they don't have to deal with a no deal scenario, but the uncertainty around the UK remains, and they can continue to bleed away foreign investment that might otherwise have come here. I notice that strong words were said last night about making sure that the UK didn't have any sort of meaningful say on any issues over the next few months. Seems quite a comfortable position to me. 

Perhaps it is quite a comfortable position for a few months. The point being made above is it is likely to become less comfortable come October (or June even when the review is undertaken) due to possible (and definite) future changes in personnel and corresponding shifts in attitudes.

Surely, there'll be a limit to any 'bleed in foreign investment' due to uncertainty and there may well come a point that the certainty of a no deal might be more beneficial in terms of foreign investment for the EU27?

 

[desensitized43]

10 minutes ago, Enda said:

I think the timing of the Euopean elections was important.

It's been important all a long tbh. People saying she triggered A50 early are forgetting that she waited as long as she feasibly could to trigger as she always had one eye on the elections.

She consistently asked for extensions that would (if granted) essentially have taken the remain option off the table, since not participating would have led to a hard cliffedge where no further extension was possible. That's why this outcome is so catastophic for her as PM. She's lost credibility, she's lost trust, she has nothing to leverage with and nothing to threaten with. She won't be PM much longer now and that's why the markets have reacted the way they have because as bad as she is (and she's probably the worst PM in my lifetime), the alternative is way worse. 

[VILLAMARV]

 

 

[desensitized43]

Downing Street spokesman confirming MV4 is incoming...round and round we go.

[snowychap]

[Davkaus]

59 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

Downing Street spokesman confirming MV4 is incoming...round and round we go.

I can't wait until she's kicked out of office, she has absolutely no shame.