mjmooney Posted January 4, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted January 4, 2019 I like that Billy Bragg piece. Chimes very closely with my view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 4, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 4, 2019 If we get to say four or five days from the vote and May's deal looks like it's not going to be voted through - how long do you think she can get away with delaying it for? Another couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, markavfc40 said: @HanoiVillan if Mays deal is voted down what do you see happening? No deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 46 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: If we get to say four or five days from the vote and May's deal looks like it's not going to be voted through - how long do you think she can get away with delaying it for? Another couple of weeks? She doesn't have to have it at all, I don't believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Sterling will start forcing the issue soon enough. The UK debt situation is fun and the current account is in no great place either, hence the wrong move in Sterling will be deathly and lots of monied types are well aware of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, villakram said: Sterling will start forcing the issue soon enough. The UK debt situation is fun and the current account is in no great place either, hence the wrong move in Sterling will be deathly and lots of monied types are well aware of this. I think they've already released the Stranger Things 3 trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted January 5, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 hours ago, villakram said: Sterling will start forcing the issue soon enough. The UK debt situation is fun and the current account is in no great place either, hence the wrong move in Sterling will be deathly and lots of monied types are well aware of this. Poor bugger. Already has to put up with all that sh*t in the The Sun and now he's to blame for Brexit as well. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 5, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted January 5, 2019 12 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not seeing your timetable here. If we take your first assumption - that May's version will be voted down, which certainly seems likely but I'm not completely prepared to write it off until closer to the vote - then we will be in a situation where there is no deal on the table. You say that 'people will act', but as I said above, the executive controls the parliamentary timetable. Since May cannot now be challenged via an internal VONC... Ok, let’s assume at the vote, mid Jan, on May’s deal and 6 yet to be written amendments, May’s deal is voted down. Firstly the amendment votes are key. They could theoretically be anything, but are more likely to be different versions of what groups of MPs prefer. If in this mid Jan vote parliament asserts that it wants Norway, or it wants whatever, then this is effectively an instruction to May to go and get it. If the “it” is a kind of either off the shelf deal, or is something that would also be of benefit to the EU then the path will be clear. It’s the cataclysm that has to happen first that I think is the bigger block. It needs May and Corbyn out the way of doing their harm, sidelined or run over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 10 hours ago, snowychap said: No deal. Part of me feels that May wouldn't knowingly destroy the country with no deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said: Part of me feels that May wouldn't knowingly destroy the country with no deal. She would do anything for her own political gain. She doesn't give a ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Good video this although many of us will already know much of what it explains. It would be nice to think leavers would take some of this in but many will just cover their eyes and ears and then state we want our country back mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 31 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: Good video this although many of us will already know much of what it explains. It would be nice to think leavers would take some of this in but many will just cover their eyes and ears and then state we want our country back mate. Would you view a pro leave video so objectively with open eyes , cause respectfully the evidence suggests it wouldn’t be the case ( generic point here not you specifically ) I switched the video off soon is it made comparisons to Nazi Germany ( yes I fell for the very trap you set with your comment ) any sensible person should have done the same ... there are “we want our country back” people out there , but there are also a lot of people who have made informed decisions as to why they want to leave and it didn’t involve goose stepping down the high street it still seems to boil down to leave and you are misinformed by the media and a dimwitted racist and really there is no point continuing the discussion at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, tonyh29 said: it still seems to boil down to leave and you are misinformed by the media and a dimwitted racist and really there is no point continuing the discussion at that point I think unfortunately there are a lot in the leave camp who have been misinformed and are basically racist speaking from personal experience. My work colleagues who voted leave can't give me a coherent answer as to why, my facebook is full of xenophobic rhetoric in regard to why we should leave the EU. I got to be honest I try to avoid talking about it in person with my friends/family as on the occasions I have I am often left scratching my head with some of the bile they come out with and it paints a whole new picture of them I don't like. I find this having been misinformed by the media to be more the case with the older generation and I include my own mother in that who is very misinformed. Out of interest did you vote leave and if so why? we don't get many on here who voted leave and give their reasons and update us as to how they feel now. Edited January 5, 2019 by markavfc40 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said: She would do anything for her own political gain. I kind of agree (but in fairness to her she’s not unique in this regard part of the reason shes got away with things is because we have opposition leader who will also do anything ( well more apt would “nothing “ ) for his own politicall gain ..) But I don’t think her actions have been to get a No deal to “knowingly destroy the country “ for her own gain ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Snowflakes 'disgusted' by words on a piece of paper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 hours ago, blandy said: Ok, let’s assume at the vote, mid Jan, on May’s deal and 6 yet to be written amendments, May’s deal is voted down. Firstly the amendment votes are key. They could theoretically be anything, but are more likely to be different versions of what groups of MPs prefer. If in this mid Jan vote parliament asserts that it wants Norway, or it wants whatever, then this is effectively an instruction to May to go and get it. If the “it” is a kind of either off the shelf deal, or is something that would also be of benefit to the EU then the path will be clear. It’s the cataclysm that has to happen first that I think is the bigger block. It needs May and Corbyn out the way of doing their harm, sidelined or run over. My current working assumption is that no amendment proposing an alternative 'deal' will get a majority. This is based on no current view commanding majority support: (NOTE: I don't necessarily agree with the analysis in this tweet, but the data shows how far from a majority any of the positions is) However, of course we are all guessing here. It will be a grimly interesting few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I think unfortunately there are a lot in the leave camp who have been misinformed and are basically racist speaking from personal experience. My work colleagues who voted leave can't give me a coherent answer as to why, my facebook is full of xenophobic rhetoric in regard to why we should leave the EU. I got got be honest I try to avoid talking about it in person with my friends/family as on the occasions I have I am often left scratching my head with some the bile they come out with and it paints a whole new picture of them I don't like. I find this having been misinformed by the media to be more the case with the older generation and I include my own mother in that who is very misinformed. Out of interest did you vote leave and if so why? we don't get many on here who voted leave and give their reasons and update us as to how they feel now. I did vote leave , I guess that would have been my default position as I’m not really a fan of the EU ( which tbf could be said for a lot of people both remainer and leaver ) I was swayed towards remain for a while , I read dozens and dozens of well informed articles on the whole subject ( and some not so informed alas ) ... And there was an element of shit do we really want to leave and enter uncharted waters but I’m of the view that we are one of the biggest economies , we have our own currency , countries do want to trade with us and we have a great chance of making a success of it , little did I know the cluster **** the government would make , though it could be argued i should have expected it .. I still think the EU project is in for a turbulent time , Greece , Italy , even Germany and that being outside will actually prove to be in our favour long term ( I’m trying to keep it brief so not offering full blown analysis here ) I still read a lot of decent articles on Brexit (remain and leave ) , just don’t know that they are worth arguing out in this thread , I.e the case that May won the battle over the backstop as it includes the whole of the U.K. and not just NI that the EU wanted , I’m not endorsing that view it’s just one I read the other week that offered a different take on her deal that made me think ,is her deal actually a good one ) i have simailar friends to you with regards to Facebook , I often read what they post and cringe , ( anti Muslim stuff and not just Brexit )... maybe I should de-friend them but they aren’t Tommy Robinson they are people I’ve known for 40 years who can’t differentiate between their neighbour Ahmed who they invite around for a BBQ and a suicide bomber who has been radicalised (simplistic summary again )...Facebook shouldn’t be for political stuff anyway just humble bragging and pictures of your dinner anyway I’m kinda incoherently rambling but hope I partly at least answered your question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhatAboutTheFinish Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: My current working assumption is that no amendment proposing an alternative 'deal' will get a majority. This is based on no current view commanding majority support: (NOTE: I don't necessarily agree with the analysis in this tweet, but the data shows how far from a majority any of the positions is) However, of course we are all guessing here. It will be a grimly interesting few weeks. Kudos to the 150 MP's who don't want a hard Brexit, don't want a soft Brexit, don't want May's deal, don't want a peoples vote and don't want to abstain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said: Kudos to the 150 MP's who don't want a hard Brexit, don't want a soft Brexit, don't want May's deal, don't want a peoples vote and don't want to abstain. "What do you want?" "Whatever we're told that we want" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 @tonyh29 I don't have time for a proper response as just walking to VP but cheers for taking the time to reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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